The United States is now facing serious problems, which were not formed overnight, but have been accumulated over a long period of time. Since 2018, the United States has been plunged into various turmoil, and it has been five years now, have these problems been resolved?
If we look at it from another angle, we have encountered some difficulties ourselves, some of which are related to the United States, and some of which are not related to the United States. In general, we may all agree to find a way to solve these difficulties, but this is not an easy task.
China and the United States, which already have deep economic ties, have now led to more problems and difficulties because of the artificial interference of the United States. If fundamentally speaking, these problems and difficulties caused by the United States may essentially be the general outbreak of the crisis of Western capitalism.
This is not alarmism, but the fact that the economic cycle in the United States has come to an end is a fact that cannot be changed. And in order to cope with this cycle, the United States has artificially created a cycle of financial tightening, and this is where our trouble lies now.
What's going on?I'll explain it in two ways, and you can see if that's the case.
Some economists in our country, many of them have an inexplicable self-confidence, and they may not realize that this self-confidence comes from the first. In fact, it is because of the rapid development of the country that they have summed up some theories from them, and then regarded these theories as universal laws.
Some people come up with the theory of real estate, thinking that as long as it is stimulated, it can change the situation, and some people come up with the theory of population, and also think that as long as it is stimulated, the status quo can be changed. But what they don't realize is that these theories of economic stimulus are actually based on the theory of money, simply put, money can solve everything.
These economists who study Xi Western capitalist theories have a common problem, that is, their cognition is based on the theory of Western capitalism. And they ignore an important problem, that is, the use of money to drive everything is actually an indispensable link in the economic cycle of the capitalist system.
The economic cycle of capitalism is about 50 years, and it has been almost 100 years since the last Great Depression in the United States, that is, the Great Depression of 1929. In these 100 years, there have been two 50-year economic cycles. One is the 50-year average cycle of wealth from 1929 to 1979, and the other is the nearly 50-year cycle of wealth concentration from 1980 to the present.
What was the core of the previous cycle?It was Roosevelt's New Deal that dealt a blow to American financial capital, established the American common prosperity model, and opened the era of the United States from the 1950s to the 1960s. What is at the heart of the latter cycle?It was Reagan's neoliberal indulgence of American financial capital that started another cycle of monopoly in the United States.
Behind these two economic cycles is an inevitable cycle of the capitalist system, which can also be said to be a curse. What is this spell?It's polarization.
The development of capital under the capitalist system, especially the development of marketization under liberalism, will inevitably lead to the concentration of capital, and the next step after the concentration of capital will inevitably be the monopoly of various industries.
On the surface, according to the interpretation of Western economics, it is overproduction, but in essence, one of the poles has an absolute resource advantage and does not need to do anything, just like an automatic machine, the cycle of an economic system will automatically suck the wealth of the other pole.
The lack of the ability to accumulate wealth also leads to the fact that the other pole can only maintain a basic life, and does not have the ability to form a broad cycle of consumption, which will inevitably lead to the so-called overproduction.
So how long is the cycle from market-oriented competition, to the accumulation of advantages, to the formation of monopoly, and then to polarization?That's about 50 years.
After the Great Depression in 1929, when Roosevelt straightened out capitalism, the United States experienced the ** era of ordinary people, and by the end of the 70s, it was the three major crises of the United States, the financial crisis caused by the quagmire of the Vietnam War, the inflation crisis, and the dollar crisis caused by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
This is exactly a 50-year cycle.
And this cycle of great capitalist development in the United States began in the early 80s, when Reagan was elected ** and began to implement neoliberal policies. It just so happens that our reform and opening up also began at the same time, and our market-oriented construction just coincided with the start of this round of cycle in the United States, so in terms of the rhythm of the cycle, it is actually synchronized.
Therefore, in terms of cycles, this is a big cycle of real decisive significance, and the development of any capitalist economic system cannot avoid this result, that is, from the flattening of the distribution of wealth to the polarization, which is the inevitability of a cyclical cycle.
So this cycle, can the United States change?It can be said that it is absolutely impossible.
This is the inevitable result of the economic and social system of Western countries, and it is impossible to change this. The marketization that the United States has always pursued is to let things take its course, but in fact it is essentially the powerlessness of the capital consortium.