The conflict in northern Myanmar continues to escalate, Lao Cai is under fire, the Chinese embassy has issued an evacuation notice, and Russian experts have revealed what is behind the scenes. What is the current situation of the war in northern Myanmar?Who is the "behind-the-scenes" that the Russian side refers to?Recently, clashes between allied forces and the Burmese army have continued in the Kokang Lao Cai area in northern Myanmar, leading to increasing security risks for Chinese detainees there. On December 28, the Chinese Embassy and Consulates General in Myanmar issued another notice reminding Chinese citizens in the Lao Cai area to evacuate to safety as soon as possible. Judging from the actions of the Chinese embassy, the war in Myanmar may not be able to subside for a while and a half, and the "ceasefire agreement" brokered by the Chinese side has expired. To this day, the fighting in northern Myanmar is still raging. Since Operation 1027, the anti-military forces have taken control of at least 21 towns, and most of Lao Cai, the capital of the Kokang Autonomous Region, has also been occupied by the Kokang Allied Army. At present, the Allied forces are clearing the remnants of the ** army in Lao Cai, and the surrounding Burmese ** army has not stopped air raids and artillery bombardment of the allied forces. In addition, in the town of Nandu in northern Shan State, the Burmese ** army is also fighting with the De'ang National Liberation Army, leaving hundreds of residents trapped.
According to the analysis, without strong external mediation, the war in Myanmar may continue for a long time. The current strength of the Burmese ** army is not enough to completely wipe out the power of the allied forces, and the follow-up ability of the allied forces and other civilian forces is also insufficient, although they preach the complete overthrow of Min Aung Hlaing's "** rule", but it is difficult to do so in terms of strength. For a long time to come, the two sides may reach a stalemate, and eventually a solution will need to be resolved through ceasefire and peace talks. Of course, the contradictions between various ethnic groups in Myanmar are very complex, and the hostile relations between various forces are not easy to resolve. On the whole, if Min Aung Hlaing's army does not change its ethnic policy and does not give benefits to local armed forces and other ethnic groups, I am afraid that such conflicts will continue to occur. With regard to the situation in northern Myanmar, China's consistent policy is not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, and China has reached a ceasefire agreement through its mediation, mainly to maintain regional peace and stability and prevent the fighting from affecting China's border residents. Otherwise, China will not intervene in any substantive way in the fighting in northern Burma. China will go all out to bring about a peaceful settlement. Regarding the ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar, Russian experts have a different opinion.
Russian scholar and diplomat Vladimir Zakharov said in an interview that the current situation in Myanmar, like previous crises in the Philippines and Vietnam, stems from U.S. intervention, according to the Russian Sputnik news agency. Zakharov said that the United States provoked the conflict in Myanmar to further complicate the security situation in China's border areas. He said that China's long-term infrastructure assistance to Myanmar** is actually aimed at creating a security line in the region to open a direct route to China through the Strait of Malacca. Moreover, for China, a stable and peaceful Myanmar is conducive to curbing the flow of drugs in the 'Golden Triangle'. He believes that the United States will destabilize the situation in Southeast Asia by putting pressure on Myanmar to increase its influence in ASEAN, and then interfere with China's development. This is exactly how the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy" is implemented. The behavior of the Philippines in the South China Sea and the sudden outbreak of war in Myanmar have all had a certain impact on the security situation in China's neighborhood. What is certain, however, is that China's rise will not be interrupted, China's national defense and security need not be worried, and the PLA is capable of destroying any invading enemy.
China will not sit idly by and watch the flames of war spread, and once the time comes to call for a ceasefire and reconciliation, China will do everything in its power to work towards a peaceful solution.