The tone set by the economic work conference for next year's national economic development has changed. Last year's meeting mentioned that the country's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, while this year's meeting pointed out that the problem of "supply shock" has weakened, but the problem of demand contraction and weakening expectations still exists. This means that the top priority of economic work next year will be to boost demand and stabilize expectations.
The contraction in demand mainly includes the decline in domestic demand and the contraction of external demand. The decline in domestic demand has led to a downgrade in consumption, while the decline in external demand has been due to changes in the international situation, with some companies shifting their operations to other countries. The weakening of expectations is due to sluggish demand, which lowers expectations for an economic recovery. Under such circumstances, promoting demand and stabilizing expectations will become an important task for next year's economic work.
The decline in domestic demand can be considered in several ways. First of all, the decline in consumer demand may be related to the weakening of consumer purchasing power, which may be related to factors such as the employment situation and unequal income distribution. Second, the adjustment of the economic structure may also lead to a sluggish demand, and the decline of traditional industries and the insufficient development rate of emerging industries may affect the growth of consumer demand. In addition, people's consumption concepts and consumption patterns are also changing, which also has a certain impact on the growth of demand.
The contraction in external demand is due to changes in the international situation. Both international frictions and geopolitical factors may cause some companies to move their operations to other countries, which in turn will affect the demand for goods and services in our country. In addition, the speed of recovery of the global economy will also affect the growth of external demand, and if the economic situation of other countries in the world is not good, the export demand for our country will also be affected.
In such a situation, it is important to promote demand and stabilize expectations. By taking measures to stimulate domestic demand, expand consumption and increase investment, economic growth can be effectively boosted. At the same time, strengthening information release and guidance to enhance market participants' expectations of economic development will help enhance market confidence and promote stable economic growth.
In the past, investment, consumption, and exports were thought to be the troika driving economic growth, however, as demographics and consumption patterns change, this narrative may need to be reconsidered. In particular, the real estate industry under investment also needs to adjust its development ideas.
Demographics have changed, and the decline in the number of young people has led to a decline in consumer demand, which means that the real estate industry, which has relied mainly on consumption-led economic growth in the past, needs to find new growth points. In the past, a large number of investments entered the real estate industry, and due to strong consumer demand, the market naturally digested these investments. However, in the current context, the effect of investing in real estate may not be as pronounced as before. Therefore, the meeting put forward the idea of "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "cross-cyclical adjustment", that is, adjusting the intensity of regulation and control policies according to the actual situation of economic development, and not carrying out strong stimulus policies.
Countercyclical adjustment refers to increasing spending, expanding fiscal deficits, and stimulating economic growth when the economy is in a downturnTighten policies when the economy is growing at a high rate to control inflation and avoid overheating the economy. The core principle of countercyclical adjustment is to stabilize economic growth, avoid overheating or cooling the economy, and maintain the smooth operation of the economy.
Cross-cyclical adjustment refers to adjusting the intensity and mode of macroeconomic regulation and control according to the different stages and characteristics of economic development. In the stage of economic growth, the expenditure and fiscal deficit can be moderately reduced to avoid the waste of resources and the formation of economic bubblesIn the economic downturn, we can increase spending, expand the fiscal deficit, stimulate demand, and promote economic recovery and growth.
In the current economic situation, the purpose of not carrying out strong stimulus policies is to avoid economic overheating and the accumulation of risks. Large-scale stimulus policies in the past may lead to overallocation of resources and overcapacity, affecting the sustainable development of the economy. Therefore, the meeting proposed to adopt appropriate macroeconomic regulation and control measures, pay attention to stability and balance, and avoid major fluctuations and risks under the current economic situation.
A major change in this year's economic work conference is that the slogan of housing for living in, not speculation is no longer emphasized. This does not mean that the property sector is deregulated, but rather that real estate is no longer the main driver of the economy. In the future, the focus of real estate development will be to promote the steady development of the market and accelerate the construction of affordable housing.
The key word mentioned in the meeting is "stability", which means that the real estate market will pay more attention to stability and avoid excessive volatility and risk. The demand for real estate market will be more market-oriented, and the ** of commercial housing will be determined according to the market supply and demand, and the ** of good houses may continue**, but the bad houses may fall to no one's attention. At the same time, we will also vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of the people.
This means that the real estate development landscape will change in the future. In the past, the real estate sector was a major driver of economic growth and relied heavily on stimulus policies and land. However, with the change of economic structure and consumption patterns, the real estate industry will be more market-oriented in the future, and market demand and ** will become the main factors determining housing prices.
In addition, the focus of real estate development will also change. In the past, the development of the real estate industry was mainly focused on the construction and sales of commercial housing, and in the future, more attention will be paid to the construction of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of the people. This also means that we will increase support for the construction of affordable housing, improve housing conditions and improve the living standards of the people by providing low-rent housing and public rental housing and other guarantees.
Overall, the development of the real estate industry will focus more on stability and marketization. ** We will increase support for the construction of affordable housing, and at the same time strengthen the supervision of the real estate market to avoid excessive fluctuations in housing prices and the accumulation of risks. This will also contribute to the healthy development of the real estate industry and promote the steady growth of the economy.