Recently, there have been reports that the US dollar is relative toRMBIt may be overestimated by 40%, which has attracted widespread attention. However, after in-depth investigation and research, I found that there are some misunderstandings in this statement. First of all, the report believes that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has issued a report that the dollar is overvalued by 18%, but this data is based on thisU.S. Dollar Index, which is used to measure the degree to which the exchange rate of the US dollar changes against a basket of currencies, rather than the degree to which it changesRMBof the relativePurchasing power。Secondly,U.S. Dollar IndexThere is no basket of currencies to look atRMB, so it is not possible to directly infer the US dollar relative toRMBThe degree of overestimation.
Although no authoritative authorities have yet given clear data, we can extrapolate the US dollar relative to a number of indicatorsRMBActuallyPurchasing powerThe degree of overestimation. World BankPublished data shows that in 2022RMBand the US dollarPurchasing powerThe conversion factor is about 399。This means that you need to pay 399 yuan to buy a basket of goods in ChinaRMB, while the amount of currency required to buy the same basket of goods in the United States is $100. Based on this data, it can be concluded that:399 yuanRMBofPurchasing powerEquivalent to $1. Based on such an extrapolation, it can be considered that the US dollar is relative toRMBActuallyPurchasing powerThe degree of overestimation can be more than 40%.
However, alonePurchasing powerThe degree of overestimation is evaluatedRMBWhether it should appreciate is one-sided. RMBThe increase in the exchange rate has a complex relationship with the process of internationalization. First of all,RMBThe appreciation needs to accompany our countryEconomysustainable and steady development. Rapid appreciation can be negative on the entityEconomyCause an impact. Secondly,RMBThe appreciation of the value needs to be considered comprehensivelyInternational marketRightRMBand the strength of demand for the US dollar. As the world's largest exporter of goods, China needs to maintain a certain competitiveness to seize the positionInternational market。And as the world's largest importer of goods, the United States needs the undervalued dollar to achieve low-cost imports.
To sum up, although according toPurchasing powerThe parity index is extrapolated, relative to the US dollar,RMBThere may be a greater underestimate, but that doesn't meanRMBIt should appreciate substantially. The trend of the exchange rate needs to take into account a variety of factors and in our countryEconomyAchieve stable fluctuations in the context of steady development. In the process of internationalization,RMBIt needs to gradually upgrade its position in the global monetary system in order to enhance our country's influence and international competitiveness.
This article examines the information about the US dollar relative toRMBwas overestimated by 40% of the report, and the claim was reinterpreted. Through the analysis of the background of the news, we found that this statement is misleading, and the Goldman Sachs Group report quoted in the original article is aimed atU.S. Dollar Indexanalysis, not withRMBof the relativePurchasing power。Subsequently, this article with the help ofWorld Bankpublished data, extrapolatedRMBwith dollarsPurchasing powerconversion factor, and derivedPurchasing powerThe degree of overestimation may exceed 40% of the conclusions. However, the influencing factors of the RMB exchange rate and the internationalization process are adjusted, notedRMBThe appreciation of our country needs to be taken into accountEconomyDevelopment andInternational marketdemand and other factors. Finally, this article summarizes:RMBThe exchange rate should be inEconomyOn the basis of steady development, we will achieve stable fluctuations and gradually enhance our position in the global monetary system to enhance our country's influence and international competitiveness.