Recently, about the US dollar relative toRMBThe debate over whether it is overrated has attracted widespread attention. According to a news, Goldman Sachs Group released a report pointing out that the US dollar is relative toRMBIt is overestimated by about 18%. However, after taking a closer look at the news, we found an important detail. The so-called 18% overvaluation refers to the basis ofU.S. dollar indexdata, not withRMBComparison of the results of the assessment.
U.S. dollar indexis used to measure a basket of dollars against a basketCurrencyofExchange rateComposite index of change. this basketCurrencyComposed of Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar,Swedish kronaand Swiss francs, not includedRMB。So, Goldman Sachs' statement that the dollar is overvalued by 18% is only for these six typesCurrencyof the weighted averageExchange rateThe combined results of the change are not aimed atRMB
ForRMBWhether it is overestimated or not, there are currently no authoritative test results. But according toWorld BankAnnouncedPurchasing powerThe conversion factor in the index statistics rules can be deduced relative to the US dollarRMBActuallyPurchasing powerIt can be overestimated by more than 40%. According to the rule, a basket of goods needs to be paid 399 yuan in ChinaRMB, which is required to pay for the same basket of goods in the United StatesCurrencyThe amount is $100. According to this calculation, 399 yuanRMBofPurchasing powerEquivalent to $1. Based on this extrapolation, it can be seen that the US dollar is relative toRMBActuallyPurchasing powerThe degree of overestimation can be well over 18%.
Albeit relative to the dollar,RMBofPurchasing powerThere is a big underestimation, but that doesn't meanRMBA significant appreciation should be achieved. This is because the international community is rightRMBand the demand for the dollar has a different strength.
As the world's largest exporter of goods, China needs to maintain a certain ...Exchange ratecompetitiveness in order to be inInternational marketto gain an advantage. IfRMBA sharp appreciation in the short term will weaken the competitiveness of Chinese goods, which in turn will affect China's export business. In addition, we want to note thatRMBThe process of internationalization is still in its infancy, and further promoting internationalization requires a stable environmentSpeculatorsTake advantage of it to make huge profits.
In contrast, the United States, as the world's largest importer of goods, wants the dollar to be overvalued in order to achieve low-cost commodity imports. This is for the United StatesEconomyof prosperity is crucial. Therefore, at the intersection of the interests of both parties,RMBand dollarsExchange rateIt is often driven by the needs of the respective individual.
ForRMBThe issue of relative valuation with the US dollar needs to be considered comprehensively, and it is not possible to make a judgment simply based on the conclusions of a report. We should be aware thatExchange ratefluctuations are the result of a combination of factors, including:EconomyofFundamentals, market supply and demand, policy factors, etc. So we can't just rely on one piece of dataExchange rateDefining the problem requires a more complete understanding of the relevant background knowledge and data status.
In the future, with ChinaEconomyThe continuous development andRMBAdvancement of the internationalization processRMBThe issue of relative valuation with the US dollar will be of further scrutiny. We need to stay on the international sideFinanceSensitivity of the market, timely access to relevant information, and making correct judgments and decisions. At the same time, ** and related institutions also need to strengthen the supervision of the market, prevent external intervention and speculation, and maintainExchange ratestability.
Finally, we have to realize that every countryEconomyDevelopment has its own unique characteristics and challenges, and the experience and practices of other countries cannot be simply applied. We should move forward on the basis of maintaining stabilityEconomyThe optimization of the structure and the improvement of their own competitiveness are the only ways to maintainExchange rateStability and realizationEconomySustainabilityofCritical