On December 24, 2008, Samuel Huntington took a curtain call, and his unique foresight of the world was embarrassing.
In Samuel's eyes, prophecy is not just empty talk, but is based on numerical calculations and in-depth research. Back in the 90s, through an in-depth study of UN data, the international situation and the development trends of various countries, he made a striking point: the West is in decline, while China, Russia, Japan, India and other countries are rising.
Samuel's Prophecy: The Decline of Western Civilization.
According to Samuel, the rise and fall of civilization is caused by the contradiction between the productive forces of society, the economic base and the superstructure. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the power of the West in the economic, political and military fields has gradually declined. However, they still try to restrain the emerging power with the stubbornness of an old man. Samuel argues that this trend will lead to a gradual weakening of Western soft power, and that non-state actors, such as multinational corporations, will become bearers of emerging power.
Characteristics and manifestations of the decline of the West.
Samuel depicts the characteristics of the decline of the West. Over the past 400 years, Western power has risen and declined. In the 80s of the 20th century, Heydririch Bull pointed out that the West reached the peak of its control over the international community around 1900, and since then the decline has gradually appeared. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Spengler Collected Works began to discuss the "decline of the West" and put forward the S-shaped curve theory, arguing that the decline of the West is a continuous process, which is currently going through a slow phase, but may accelerate in special periods.
* Crisis and group influence.
Unlike other civilizations, two centers of civilization emerged in the West, which gradually ** after 1900. Phenomena such as Brexit and the internal independence referendum show that the crisis is becoming a theme in the West. Unlike Asian civilizations, which emphasize cohesion and unity, the West is gradually moving towards **.
Group influence is also one of the characteristics of the decline of the West. In terms of economy, military, population, system, politics, technology and society, the influence of the West is gradually weakening. For example, the differences in aesthetic concepts in film and television culture show that group influence has an important impact on the combat effectiveness of the state. However, Samuel believes that the affected India is undergoing a transformation, and China will undergo a similar transformation in the near future.
The rise of China, India, Japan and Russia.
Samuel's prophecy not only accurately pointed to the decline of the West, but also foresaw the rise of countries such as China, India, Japan, and Russia. This rise is mainly manifested in the improvement of the number and quality of the population. In the early 90s, infant mortality rates in these countries had decreased dramatically and life expectancy had increased significantly. In terms of quality, the literacy rate has increased substantially, providing a steady stream of impetus for economic development. Due to the spread of advanced technology, the monopoly of the West on technology has gradually been broken, and the rise of new powers such as China's high-speed rail project indicates a change in the world pattern.
Conclusion: Irreversible changes in the world pattern.
While Samuel's prediction has been validated in the current situation, China's rise does not mean the emergence of hegemonism or world police. China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development, while the rise of Europe and the United States depends on colonialism and hegemonism, and the rise of the Third World will have a theme of peace. This irreversible development trend is shaping a new world pattern.
Commentary: The Insightful Samuel Huntington Prophecy.
Samuel Huntington's prophecy, decades later, shows astonishing insight. Through in-depth numerical calculations and data investigation, he reveals the decline of Western civilization and the rise of emerging powers such as China, India, Japan, and Russia. These ideas may have been seen as bold at the time, but now they seem to be a true picture of history.
First of all, Samuel's prophecy is based on scientific facts and in-depth research, unlike some other empty **. By referring to the United Nations data, the world situation and the development trends of various countries, he paints a real and objective picture of the world. This accuracy has garnered widespread attention for his predictions and has made his analysis more convincing.
Second, Samuel's portrayal of the decline of Western civilization is all the more convincing today. He highlighted the more than 400-year history of the rise and fall of Western power, as well as the theory of the "S-shaped curve" proposed by Heydrier Bull. This theory explains the curve of a country's economic growth and recession, and vividly describes the historical trajectory of Western civilization. To contemporary observers, the decline of Western civilization seems to be going through a relatively slow but irreversible process.
Samuel's analysis of crisis and group influence cannot be ignored either. He pointed out the emergence of two centers of civilization in the West and the trend of **, in contrast to the emphasis on cohesion and solidarity of Asian civilization. The influence of group influence on the effectiveness of nations is becoming more pronounced in today's society, and Samuel's view that India is changing and that China is going to change is partly explained.
Finally, Samuel is also quite accurate about the rise of emerging powers. He is concerned about the improvement of the number and quality of the population, which he believes will provide a steady stream of impetus for the economy. Today, the rise of China, India and other countries, as Samuel said, has gradually broken the monopoly of the West on advanced technology and demonstrated its strong strength in the field of high technology.
Overall, Samuel Huntington's prophecy has shown impressive accuracy in the torrent of history. His insights have given us a clearer understanding of future development trends and triggered deep thinking about the transformation of the world pattern.
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