In the 2023 annual summary report, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu mentioned a striking remark: "This is not said by Xiao Lonely, it is said by Shoigu in the 2023 annual summary report." Although Xiao Lonely thinks these remarks are debatable, they are not too far from the basic facts. The report pointed out that if further follow-up combat operations could be carried out, it would be very beneficial to the strategic concept of the Emperor.
1. After the release of Shoigu's summary report on the ground situation between the Russian army and Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces lost three Su-34s in succession, casting a shadow over the overall situation. Although the reasons involved in the losses are varied, including the sudden rise of the Ukrainian air defense forces, the carelessness of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and the involvement of NATO's direct forces, this does not preclude tactical and strategic discussions. However, Shoigu stressed that the Russian army will not retreat to Moscow on all fronts because of the loss of three fighters.
Despite the victory in the air, on the ground battlefield, the Russian army achieved a full-fledged initiative in winter. Analyzing the situation on the Southern Front, the Zaporozhye battlefield and the Donetsk battlefield, the report points out that the Russian army has achieved a series of results in the winter**. From the Klinki crossing to Zaporizhzhia, the Russian army has shown great strength on the ground battlefield, making Ukraine passive.
Second, statistics and manpower consumption are in the report, and the statistics involved tend to be positive. The Ukrainian side's manpower losses have reached more than 380,000, and the number of ** officially admitted by NATO has also reached more than 300,000. However, Western open-source intelligence estimates the damage to 500,000 people, including 200,000 dead and missing, and 250,000 disabled and discharged. This suggests that Ukraine's human resources have been badly damaged after two years of conscription, especially at the front.
The losses on the part of the Russian army were relatively small, with 50,000 to 70,000 dead and missing on the open battlefield. Even according to the higher calculation of 70,000, the maximum loss of manpower of the Russian army is only 150,000, which is far lower than that of Ukraine. This gap means that Russia has a clear advantage in maintaining a relatively intact rotational combat force.
3. The report on strategic prospects and challenges highlights the current strategic prospects and challenges. Russia is expected to complete its strategic mission to Ukraine in 2024, especially in eastern Ukraine, and seizing and annihilating the NATO-standard brigade of the Ukrainian army will gain a favorable strategic position for Russia. However, it is crucial for Ukraine to keep the newly created NATO brigades, otherwise it will lose control of Donetsk and other regions in the future. The challenge at this stage is Ukraine's manpower constraints and lack of sufficient resources to support its defenses, the report said.
IV. International Assistance and Developments At the end of the report, there is a mention of news in Zelensky's favor: someone is willing to provide F-16. However, even with the acquisition of new fighters, Ukraine still faces a shortage of resources such as artillery shells. The report stresses that Ukraine is in dire need of all sorts of NATO meter-caliber shells, and not just new fighter jets.
Summary: Shoigu's annual summary report reveals key developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite Russia's superiority in the air, Ukraine has also shown resilience on the ground battlefield. The huge gap in manpower losses between the two sides has become a major variable in the battle situation. Russia is on track to achieve its strategic goals in 2024, but Ukraine's resistance remains uncertain. The shortage of international aid and resources will be an important factor in the fate of both sides in the future. In the end, there are still many unknowns about the entire battle situation, and the movements of both sides will determine the future development of the situation.
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