The following diagram can depict the state of the market today - "wine" dies "doctor" life.
Liquor stocks fell to death, but pharmaceutical stocks represented by traditional Chinese medicine and chemical drugs were alive and well.
Of course, the medical devices in the heavy warehouse of the institution are still a mess.
In 2020, the two major ** tracks of institutional heavy positions are really difficult from 2021 to the present.
The money for liquor is also not easy to make
Similar to medicine with sharp internal differentiation, in fact, since 2021, the internal differentiation of liquor has not been small.
The best performance is Yingjiagongjiu, isn't it quite counterintuitive?
Kweichow Moutai has always been a relatively resistant one in the Mao index because the fundamentals are indeed the best, and compared with him, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe shares have already fallen into collapse.
Because of the differentiation of the internal trend of high-end liquor, ** managers with different price investment styles have also shown different attitudes.
The high-quality style managers represented by Kunkun and Chunchun, whether it is the volume caused by the scale or the result of the comparison of the first quality, many of them still choose to carry the high-end liquor with heavy warehouses and practice it with personal experienceVolatility doesn't matter, and the spiral of a business isn't scary, as long as it can reach its goalideas.
Just like Moutai, the king of stocks, even if you are Moutai, since the 2008 bear market, the 30% level of retracement alone has appeared in turns since 2008-2009, 203-2014, 2018, and 2021.
But this still can't stop the dazzling record of 12 times in 15 years, and I use this example to tell you that even if you can select 10 baggers, the large and small ** and drawdown in the middle are inevitable.
In the words of the price investment V, which is the legal treatment for investors who patiently hold shares and end up making a lot of money
On the other hand, not all price investors are willing to give high premiums to good companies, after all, companies at the level of Moutai are indeed rare, and good companies are difficult to judge, and some people are willing to use good ** to protect themselves.
For example, Tian Yu, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao with a low valuation style only appeared on the list of heavy stocks this year, and Moutai may not have entered his batting area because the stock price is relatively strong.
In fact, it doesn't matter if the two are right or wrong, it just depends on what you ultimately believe.
Inventory pressure, looming
In fact, the high-end liquor has not been peaceful in the past few days, and Luzhou Laojiao had a flash crash on Monday, and the market was worried about the inventory pressure behind Luzhou Laojiao's "price reduction".
Although Luzhou Laojiao responded to the concerns of the market for the first time, saying that it was an encouragement for high-quality dealers, the price of Guojiao 1573 was reduced from 980 yuan to 930 yuan, and each bottle was rewarded with 10 yuan for scanning the code out of the warehouse, and the price of Luzhou Laojiao special song also dropped from 340 yuan to 290 yuan, which is not the price reduction that everyone is worried about, but the problem of the rhythm of payment.
But speculation about the inventory pressure on high-end liquor has been great.
The editor-in-chief went to dinner last week, picked up the factory date of Jian Nanchun and took a look, in October last year, even if the liquor has no expiration date and has a collection of stories to tell, but at the root, the distillery still has to sell the liquor after all, right?
The domestic economy is sluggish, and there are not many business banquet scenes, and now the post-00s governance workplace "milk tea instead of wine" atmosphere also makes the liquor more reasonable.
But these are very normal "news" in **, every round of liquor** someone says "young people don't drink liquor", and then no one mentions it, in fact, the fluctuation of high-end liquor itself also reflects the changes in the economic cycle, which is just a cycle.
Compared with these, I am actually more concerned about the export of Chinese liquor.
Domestic high-end liquor companies have not been very popular in going overseas, compared with the huge domestic market, Moutai 288%, 053%, Wuliangye does not directly disclose the proportion of overseas revenue in the report, and non-alcoholic products, which account for about 8%, are responsible for expanding the external market, which is a bit pitiful for giants with a market value of 100 billion or even trillions.
In contrast, Diageo's globalization is quite worthy of reference for domestic wine companies.
Peregate, which owns Jack Daniel's, also accounts for 48% of its total revenue in developed and emerging markets outside the U.S. market.
It may be inseparable from the wide recognition of Chinese culture that wine companies go overseas, but as a business manager, you have to weigh it - the domestic consumer market can see the ceiling, and going overseas may be the most important second curve for wine companies.
With such abundant cash on the liquor account, even if the liquor is not sold well, is it worth considering acquiring overseas brands?
Just like the association with Motorola and the beauty with Kuka, there are still many cases of Chinese companies going overseas for acquisitions.
**A sign of bottoming out - liquor makes up for the fall
From the perspective of chips, the consumer stocks represented by liquor are actually a good thing.
Looking at the scenario of the CSI liquor index falling by more than 10% in a single month, it can be said that liquor ** does not necessarily mean that the market bottoms out immediately, but the market bottom must be marked by liquor **.
So far, the ** range of CSI liquor this month is 97%, think about the benefits, and work hard to clear the market, right?
In fact, what is more miserable now is mainly the direction of core assets, the essence of which is to repay debts in the last round of bubbles, and you see that it has fallen a lot today - cosmetics, condiments, liquor, and new energy. Right?
You don't see that the CSI 2000 was once relatively strong, and it turned green slightly at the last moment.
Each round of style switching in A-shares is long and painful.
From 2019 to 2021, the value style struggled for 30 months, from 2017 to 2021, the small-cap style went against the wind for 49 months, and from February 2021 to now there have been 35 months.