A little thought.
Baijiu is basically consistent with my previous judgment, and the inventory pressure of liquor companies will be delayed for half a year to a year due to the flat performance of some distributors, which will be fed back to the financial statements of listed companies for half a year to a year.
The delay in the holding of this year's order meeting is not a matter of covering up the ears and stealing the bell, but to tell the market bluntly that the inventory pressure of liquor is real.
Baijiu is a good business model, but the high prosperity in recent years has induced the continuous expansion plan of baijiu companies, which is no different from other industries.
There will be cycles in any industry, and after three or five years, the production of high-end liquor by leading liquor companies will double, and the overall consumption of liquor will continue to decrease.
Production capacity and the best continue to maintain the pattern of volume and price rise, I personally think it is difficult to achieve, at present, in addition to Moutai high-end products, the market guidance price of other companies is almost nothing, basically in the way of volume control price.
So, what about the increased production capacity in the future?
Even if it is Moutai, after a few years, only Feitian Moutai-related products will have about 100 million bottles on the market
And these people not only drink Moutai, but also companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu and Yanghe will also divert some of them.
This is common sense, just like the thinking about the excess demand in the real estate industry in previous years, with only so many people, consumption cannot grow endlessly.
If the volume and price of liquor are much higher than the growth rate of income for a long time, it is impossible to maintain sustained growth, which is also common sense.
Therefore, compared with before, I may be more pessimistic about the future of liquor, and the previous optimistic expectations are based on the continued improvement of the economy and production capacity control.
The endless expansion of production and the problem of the economy (real estate) will also certainly affect the consumption of liquor.
Real estate is down, and no industry is immune.
Because of this, even if the leading liquor company has fallen a lot compared to more than 2 years ago, considering the factors mentioned above, once the reality is verified, the liquor company has maintained digesting inventory for 2 or 3 consecutive years or even has a ** decline, so can it maintain the current average price-earnings ratio of more than 20 times?
Although the median value is not high, if the performance slows, it will face the problem of re-valuation of the entire industry.
Nothing is set in stone.
The above is a personal reflection and summary of Caitou, and does not constitute any operation suggestions, please combine your actual situation to obtain your own growth and cognition.
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Original debut |Caitou Diary (ID: CT600519).
Author |Choopy head.