This weekend, there were two articles that attracted a lot of attention.
One is an article by ** Times, titled "Justifying the Shanghai Composite Index". I never expected that **Times is now so open-minded and can justify the name of the index developed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange!
Because it has always been in the past, it is estimated that it may also be: all listed companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange usually do not publish statutory information in the Times, because the companies listed in Shanghai can be issued by the Shanghai News Agency and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the amount of statutory information is relatively large, and each company will have to pay about 100,000 yuan a year, and the Times was jointly run by Xinhua News Agency and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, mainly to undertake the statutory information disclosed by companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Although the people later felt that Xinhua News Agency had too much oil and water, and finally brought the ** Times under their command, but basically in terms of industry competition, Shanghai ** News and ** Times are competitors, considering that statutory information is equivalent to the big cake given by the **regulatory department**, so the two are in competition with each other, plus the historical reasons for the exchange to participate in it, although it will not open the mutual harm mode, but it is true that they are unwilling to support each other's market. After all, its reporters are all people who steal each other's jobs on the front line, and they are not in the mood to write articles praising the opponent's market index. Of course, later the newspaper industry was rectified, and the exchange completely let go of **, and these two newspapers belonged to the ** director, and the antagonism between them was a little smaller, but in any case, there was no idea of praising each other subconsciously. After all, there were still many people from the exchange at that time.
Saying all this, I want to show that **Times subjectively has no intention of whitewashing the Shanghai Composite Index.
This article goes through the rise of the U.S. self-owned ** market to December of this year (from 1896 to 2023), i.e. the Dow from the initial 4094 points, ** to the current more than 37,400 points, the cumulative increase is 913 times, and the annualized compound growth rate of the United States ** is 55%。Since its establishment, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 28 times in 33 years from 100 points on December 19, 1990 to December 21, with an annualized compound growth rate of 108%, almost twice as much as the Dow!
According to this comparison, netizens created the following paragraph).
To be honest, when I read this article, although I felt that ** was a little wrong, I was really happy after reading it: in this way, as long as we can live a longer life like Buffett and insist on investing (considering that Buffett started to buy ** when he was a teenager, so he invested for 80 years, and it is very likely that he copied the big bottom of the United States**, almost eating 600 times the **??).Then we have a better chance of becoming the richest man.
However, this comparison is really not fair, the history of mankind is progressing faster and faster, not to mention that the United States has been established for more than 100 years, there have been two world wars on the earth, but in the 33 years since the establishment of China's market, a world war has not occurred, which is a rare period of peace and development in human history. Needless to say, technological advances have been made.
In terms of details, although the general method of compiling the index is also learned from the United States, the specific selection of the sample and how to select the initial ** of the sample will have a completely different impact on the index. For example, if the new stock is included in the index on the day of listing, then it is compared with the previous day's **, which is compared with the issuance, considering that our new shares will be speculated (or the issuance of ** is low), such a compilation method will lead to the problem of distortion of the overall expression of the market when the index is listed more and the increase is larger.
Then many self-** people wrote articles criticizing ** Times. The bashing argument is also powerful.
The slammed article pointed out that before and after the 2008 financial crisis, our Shanghai Composite Index and the Dow were about the same point (I have confirmed the index, and the indices in this article are correct), our highest is 6124 points (2007), and the lowest point of the Dow Jones is 6440 points (2009).
So, according to this article, in the past 30 years or so, while both sides are concentrating on economic development, our index has almost halved, while the index of the United States has fallen by 58 times!
It is the same comparison between China and the United States, but the results are completely different, even very different.
Obviously, the comparison of ** Times is very unscientific, after all, it is really unreasonable to compare the data of the past hundred years with the control of the rapid development of the economy, in 1896, the Chinese were still relying on palanquins or horse-drawn carriages to travel, but now there are high-speed rail planes, so can you compare China's growth rate in the last 40 years with the growth rate of people 100 years ago?For example, the development of the economy depends on too many conditions. Therefore, in the above paragraph, it is said that Guo Jingming's growth is higher than Jordan's, and it is more appropriate to use this as a metaphor, because the economy will be closer to the performance of people in a period of time, that is, the growth rate will reach a ceiling, and it will be difficult to grow. Moreover, it is not possible to maintain positive growth all the time, and sometimes it can be negative. Therefore, it is completely unreasonable to use other people's speed in 100 years compared to our speed in 33 years.
In the latter comparison, although the time is roughly the same, the rationality has improved, but the interception point of time is still not exactly the same. Even if we used our highest price in 2007, and the lowest price in the United States in 2009, these two points look basically the same, but the time difference is two years, two years, the external situation is different, plus one is the most **, one is the lowest price, the internal law of the index itself will go in the opposite direction, and the gap is inevitable.
Therefore, the relatively most correct comparison is to choose the same period after the 2008 financial crisis, that is, from 2009 onwards, in the same cut-off time, we can take a look: the United States ** in 2008 ** price is 8776At 4 o'clock, with December 21 of this year as the deadline, the ** price is 374044 points, the increase during the period is 326 times, that is, an increase of 326%, and the ** price of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2008 was 18208 o'clock, the same cut-off period, the ** price is 2918At 7 o'clock, we have increased 60% of the period, that is, in the past 15 years, from the perspective of the two indexes, the United States has been more than 5 times more than ours.
If we consider the maximum increase of our index during the period, our Shanghai Composite Index reached 5178 points in 2015, so our maximum increase is 185%. It should be said that at this point in time, when we reached the highest value in 2015, compared with the highest point of the US Dow Jones, they increased by 109%.
It can be seen that our maximum increase in the stage can surpass that of the United States, but our ** from the highest point in 2015 is gradual**, and the United States ** is all the way to a new high.
Of course, this does not take into account the way the index is compiled, mainly the time difference between the selected ** to enter the index and other factors. The more important reason is that it is not very scientific to choose the Dow to compare with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, because the Dow only has 88 industrial stocks, and our Shanghai Composite Index basically includes all the ** of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, so the comparison index is a bit strange and too unequal. If you choose the S&P 500 and our CSI 500 to compare, then at least the first number of representations will be better.
Overall, in the same period of time, our ** short speculation strength is not bad, but the sustainability is poor, and the time is not as high as the Dow. Of course, it is also possible that after 2015, we implemented the registration-based reform, launched the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange, and due to the impact of various factors such as the impact of the epidemic and policy adjustments, the index growth rate slowed down.