The concept of disruptive innovation has gradually risen from the original business field to the height of national strategy, and has attracted great attention from countries around the world. By defining the concept and connotation of disruptive technological innovation from the perspective of the country, combined with the background of the times, practical challenges and future needs faced by China, this paper analyzes the three major problems faced by China's disruptive technological innovation from three aspects: technology selection and cultivation, the "valley of death" of disruptive technological innovation, and the cultivation of environment and soil. On this basis, this paper analyzes the experience and practices of disruptive technological innovation in typical countries around major strategic issues, and puts forward enlightenment and countermeasures for the development of disruptive technological innovation in China.
The concept of "disruptive technology" was developed by Harvard professor Clayton M. ChristensenChristensen first proposed the concept in 1995, and then in 1997, he proposed the concept of disruptive innovation, which refers to the development route of taking the low-end non-mainstream market as the entry point, gradually improving the product and eventually replacing the mainstream market, until the entire business development model is subverted. Although "disruptive innovation" originated in the business field, it has received extensive attention from the world, think tanks, academia and business circles, and its conceptual connotation has been continuously enriched and developed, not only becoming a general concept currently applied to industry, business, technology and military and other fields, but also gradually developing to a high degree of national strategic guidance, and becoming an important part of the world's scientific and technological power strategic competition frontier and national strategy. The United States was the first to form a relatively complete disruptive technology innovation ecosystem with the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA), the Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA-E) and other DARPA institutions as the traction and multi-subject participation, and gave birth to "game-changing" disruptive technologies such as the Internet, advanced aircraft, and GPS. China attaches great importance to disruptive technological innovation, and the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the important speech of the general secretary at the 2018 academician conference of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have put forward the requirements of strengthening disruptive technological innovation and striving to achieve a strong country in science and technology, independent and controllable. However, how to develop disruptive technological innovation with mutations, uncertainties and high risks, what major strategic issues should be paid attention to at the national level, and how to take the initiative to promote disruptive technological innovation, these issues are the key issues that policymakers and academics focus on.
This paper first expounds the connotation of disruptive technological innovation from the perspective of the stateSecondly, three major problems faced by China's disruptive technological innovation are proposed, namely, the selection and cultivation of technology, the "valley of death" of disruptive innovation, and the cultivation of environment and soilFinally, combined with the experience and practices of typical countries, this paper puts forward enlightenment and policy suggestions for the three major issues, so as to provide reference for the development and governance of disruptive technology innovation in China.
1.The connotation of national disruptive technological innovation
R&D of disruptive technologies is one of the ways and important links to achieve disruptive innovation, which includes not only technological breakthroughs, but also product sales, business models and market operations. At present, the world is in a great change unseen in a century, and it is of practical significance to examine the strategic connotation of disruptive technological innovation from a national perspective, and it is necessary to examine it from the perspective of "overall situation, long-term, key points, and foundations": "seeking the overall situation" reflects the internal elements and external shaping forces involved in the process of disruptive innovation, as well as the whole chain and overall review and consideration of the disruptive innovation picture in various regions of the country"Seeking the long-term" reflects the consideration of the potential impact and process risks of disruptive innovation from reality to the future in advance, and the future picture of disruptive innovation"Seeking key points" emphasizes the main contradiction between the general trend of world scientific and technological development and the economic and social development goals, and reflects the disruptive innovation from the national strategic leadership"Seeking the foundation" emphasizes the need to consolidate the basic environment (hard power and soft power) of innovation as the foundation and foundation. Therefore, unlike the "low-end" disruptive innovation proposed by Clayton Christensen, this paper argues that national disruptive technological innovation takes disruptive technology as the core, often has a high technology intensity, can serve the national strategic needs, produce a "zeroing effect" on the application field or industry in a revolutionary way, and reconstruct the system and order of the application field and industry, which can be used as a fundamental force to "change the rules of the game" and promote human economic and social change.
Therefore, national disruptive technological innovation can be embodied in four levels: facing new principles, new applications and new combinations of science and technology, identifying and cultivating major disruptive technologies that may trigger system and paradigm changes, and realizing technology supply;Facing the major strategic needs of the state and social public consumption, we will carry out the development and production of major equipment projects with disruptive technological innovation to realize the supply of public goodsFacing the demand for public consumption or competitive incubation applications of disruptive technological innovation, create a market environment and realize environmental supply;In the face of the risks that may be caused by disruptive technological innovation, we should take the right measures to achieve governance and supply.
2.Problems faced by China in promoting disruptive technological innovation in the country
Disruptive technological innovation itself has the characteristics of high risk and strong uncertainty, coupled with the fact that China is in the context of severe international competition, domestic economic transformation and upgrading, and the reform of the scientific and technological system has entered the deep water area, and the promotion of national disruptive technological innovation and development is facing profound practical challenges. This paper argues that technology selection and cultivation, the "valley of death" of disruptive technological innovation, and the cultivation of environment and soil are the three major problems facing disruptive technological innovation in China.
2.1 Technology selection and cultivation
The growth process of new technology is a process of selection and cultivation that work together and intertwine with each other, and through the whole process of open and competitive selection and cultivation, it promotes the realization of disruptive technological innovation. China faces severe challenges in the selection and cultivation of disruptive technology innovations.
First of all, the complexity of technology, structure, and development stage brings multiple challenges to the selection and cultivation of disruptive technologies.
First, from the perspective of the first level, disruptive technological innovation has three technologies: major breakthroughs based on scientific principles and cross-integration of technology, disruptive application of technology, and disruptive technology (problem-oriented) to solve problems with disruptive ideas
Second, from a structural point of view, disruptive technological innovation is spatially composed of core technologies, supporting technologies and auxiliary technologies to form a structured technical system
Third, from the perspective of stages, disruptive technological innovation has gone through the process of laboratory technology, intermediate test technology, engineering technology and terminal application technology. Therefore, the technology selection and cultivation methods corresponding to disruptive technological innovation in different technologies, technology systems and development stages are different.
Secondly, the driving mode of disruptive technology innovation in different application scenarios is different, and the subjects and methods of technology selection and cultivation are also different.
For example, disruptive technological innovations (such as cutting-edge military technology and major engineering equipment) that serve the national strategy and are related to the national strategy must be led by the national demand for technology selection, and the state should provide long-term large-scale investment supportThe disruptive technological innovation (such as general technology and key core technology) that connects with industrial upgrading and avoids the "Thucydides trap" must be driven by the dual system of "** market", according to the industrial attributes, industrial strategic positioning and the difficulty of technological breakthroughs, and the matching needs of various elements in the innovation process, so as to determine the degree of integration with the market in the selection and cultivation.
Finally, there is a lack of identification and evaluation methods, standards and project management mechanisms that are suitable for disruptive technological innovation. At present, relevant institutions in China have made arrangements and tried to select and cultivate technologies through disruptive technology innovation plans and disruptive technological innovations, but there are still the following problems:
First, there is a lack of identification methods that adapt to the intrinsic characteristics of disruptive technological innovation. The effectiveness of traditional methods for identifying progressive technologies, such as technology maturity evaluation method, technology roadmap method, quantitative model method and scenario analysis method, needs to be tested and improvedMore and more new technologies with the potential for disruptive technological innovation are in society and beyond the jurisdiction of the state, and the active identification and discovery of such disruptive technological innovations is a huge challenge.
Second, there is a lack of scientific evaluation criteria for disruptive technological innovation. Due to the accidental, non-consensus, high-risk, high failure rate and interdisciplinary nature of disruptive technological innovation, the evaluation of disruptive technological innovation faces a series of problems, such as the lack of mature evaluation data as the basis for evaluation, the completion of project indicators and other conventional evaluation indicators with academic consensus are not suitable for disruptive technological innovation, and the use of interdisciplinary evaluation methods may encounter "distant relatives rejection" because experts are not familiar with the field.
Third, there is a lack of management mechanism that is compatible with the characteristics of disruptive technological innovation. Disruptive technological innovation is one of the few fundamental forces that can change the pattern, but in the entire scientific and technological innovation system, the existing project management mechanism is mainly aimed at incremental innovation, and is not fully applicable to disruptive technological innovation.
2.2 The "valley of death" of disruptive technological innovation
Disruptive technological innovation follows the general law of innovation, and goes through four stages: gestation, infancy, growth and outbreak, and faces the uncertainty of basic research path selection, technology selection, market selection and expansion, and market paradigm formation, so new technologies are often unable to cross these gaps in the process of industrialization and die in the "valley of death" of innovation. It is of great significance for the cultivation and development of disruptive technology innovation to recognize the basic laws and key points of the growth of disruptive technology innovation and help enterprises cross the "valley of death". In the process of China's disruptive technological innovation crossing the "valley of death", the process is particularly difficult due to some of its own characteristics and external environmental influences.
First of all, the national policies and regulatory mechanisms for disruptive technological innovation are imperfect and lagging. The objective reasons are:
First, China's awareness of the top-level design of disruptive technology innovation and the status quo of industrial transformation and upgrading is insufficient, and a complete strategic planning system for disruptive technology innovation has not yet been formed
Second, it is difficult to accurately predict the transformative effect of disruptive technological innovation, and at the same time, it does not take into account the supporting role of the existing leading industries in the social economy, which may lead to a lack of strategic foresight in industrial selection in the balance between reality and the future
Third, in the face of the pressure of the dominant social-technical system formed by traditional technology, on the one hand, it is necessary to maintain relative social stability in terms of political will, and on the other hand, it is necessary to deal with the challenges of disruptive technological innovation to the national governance pattern, which may affect the determination of reform and form a situation in which the situation forces reform.
Second, China's disruptive technology innovation faces a lack of early-stage innovation investment. Disruptive technological innovation has the characteristics of uncertainty and high risk, and there is a lack of innovation investment in the capital market in the early stage of entrepreneurship, because there is a contradiction between too much investment and entrepreneurs losing entrepreneurial motivation in the early stage, the structural cost of enterprise funds is too high, and the cooperation between investment institutions and new enterprises consumes too much time, which can easily lead to investment failure. Comparatively speaking, there are some experiences that can be learned from abroad. The U.S. can reduce the failure rate of investments by building an effective innovation ecosystem, creating social norms and integrity rules on the one hand, reducing transaction costs, and on the other hand, by subsidizing capital. In addition, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs will establish a mutually beneficial and symbiotic investment relationship, which can also reduce the uncertainty of disruptive technological innovation. However, China is not mature enough to build an innovation ecosystem or to make up for the lack of early-stage capital by seeking help to subsidize capital and reduce transaction costs.
Finally, the severe internal and external situation hinders the process of disruptive technological innovation across the "valley of death". At present, the competition between China and the United States in science and technology is becoming increasingly fierce, and the United States has formed systematic measures covering many fields such as strategy, legislation, justice, administration, and diplomacy. In February 2022, the United States released a new version of the "Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET) List", which lists 20 emerging technologies, including advanced computing, quantum information, artificial intelligence, directed energy technology, financial technology and hypersonic technology, which are the key frontiers for it to increase the "endless frontier" technology competition, and will also become an important area for the United States to increase multilateral export controls. This shows that the United States has expanded the pressure on emerging technologies and other fields, and further increased the external difficulty of China's disruptive technological innovation to cross the "valley of death".
2.3 Cultivation of the environment and soil
Disruptive technological innovation requires not only the country's active selection and cultivation, but also the construction of a free and borderless innovation hot land, which must not only have hard power, but also have soft power. The cultivation of environment and soil is a long-term project, and due to its development stage, institutional mechanism, cultural atmosphere and other reasons, there are still the following problems in the environment and soil for the development of disruptive technological innovation, which restricts the improvement of disruptive technological innovation capabilities.
First, the scientific spirit of courage to explore, seek truth and be realistic is insufficient, and the creation of a fault-tolerant cultural atmosphere of innovation is insufficient. Disruptive technological innovation is highly exploratory, uncertain and advanced, and its development process is likely to be accompanied by risks and failures. At present, China has begun to advance into the "no man's land" in many fields, but the uncertainty of disruptive technological innovation research has not been widely recognized, and the evaluation is mostly based on the principle of success and achievement of indicators. In addition, the innovation culture atmosphere that encourages creativity and tolerates failure has not yet been formed, and the tolerance of disruptive technological innovation by innovation subjects is insufficient.
Second, the current education system is difficult to cultivate disruptive technological innovation talents, and the foundation for development is not solid. The core element of disruptive technological innovation is "people". For a long time, China's education has emphasized inheritance and innovation, standardized education, personalized education, knowledge absorption, value shaping and innovation and entrepreneurship.
3.Lessons learned from international experience
After World War II, countries around the world have carried out multi-dimensional and multi-level exploration and practice in the selection and cultivation of disruptive technologies, policy guidance and environmental creation, and the United States has formed a complete system of disruptive technological innovation. Through the analysis of the measures of typical countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Japan, in terms of disruptive technological innovation, the enlightenment is obtained.
First, the key turning point is to achieve a strategic window for latecomers to catch up and overtake. Due to the complexity of the disruptive technology innovation process, it is difficult for the average technology inventor to achieve ultimate disruption. Taking liquid crystal display (LCD) technology as an example (see Table 1), Japan and South Korea have achieved latecomer catch-up by identifying and grasping turning points such as the discovery and dissemination of new principles (scientific breakthroughs), the invention and bifurcation of new technologies (technology bifurcation), and the creation and locking of new industries (industrial lock-in). In the gestation period, the direction of the breakthrough of technical principles and the positioning of future applications are very vague, and the United States and Europe have provided talents, academic and theoretical foundations for the exploration of the photoelectric effect principle of liquid crystal materials, and promoted the germination of new LCD technologies in the United States. In infancy, the United States provides financial support and a small number of military orders to promote the cultivation of new technologies and early application exploration of LCD, Japan through the optoelectronics industry policy to guide the introduction and practical development of LCD technology by private enterprises, due to the weak technology system, the application direction is still uncertain, Japan has become the first twisted nematic liquid crystal (TN-LCD) and super twisted nematic liquid crystal (STN-LCD) small and medium-sized products for practical industrialization of the country, successfully achieved the latecomer catch-up. In the growth period, the direction of technology development is gradually clear, Japan organized the LCD industry-university-research alliance to carry out basic research on optoelectronic materials and active matrix thin film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), promote the upstream, middle and downstream division of labor and cooperation of industrial chain manufacturers, and set up flat panel display industrial parks, etc., to promote the formation of industrial ecology, in 1994, Japan's share of the global panel industry has been as high as 94%. At this stage, South Korea's leading enterprises actively intervened, formulated technology and industrial development policies, carried out tax exemptions, actively cultivated talents, prompted Korean enterprises to carry out TFT-LCD R&D trial production, and used the inherent industrial characteristics of the liquid crystal cycle to participate competitively, accelerating the explosive growth of South Korea's TFT-LCD industry and achieving catch-up. In the outbreak period, the mainstream LCD market is fully opened, the market mechanism determines the allocation of resources, and the first countries to adjust the interest mechanism through regulation and policy, based on the consolidation of international competitive advantage and the identification and acquisition of the next generation of emerging technologies.
Second, developed countries have established strategic research mechanisms and special institutions for the normalization of disruptive technological innovation. The United States, industry, intelligence, and academia have actively carried out strategic research on disruptive technological innovation, and have formed a normalized research mechanismCountries such as the United Kingdom, Israel, and Japan have also organized experts from the scientific community, research councils, and technical strategy committees to jointly discuss and screen out cutting-edge technologies that need to be prioritized for development, so as to guide domestic technology development trends. In addition, the United States has set up specialized institutions (see Table 2) and corporate institutions such as Google X Labs to match high-risk and high-reward advanced research programs, which have unique positioning, management models, evaluation mechanisms, and innovation atmospheres, and promote disruptive technological innovation. Taking DARPA as an example, through the adoption of the project contracting system with the extensive participation of defense contractors, scientific research institutes and other leading organizations, as well as the project manager system, dynamic competition of multiple technical routes, achievement transformation mechanism and other unconventional management models, the generation of new ideas and technologies is promoted. In addition, U.S. companies are also setting up X institutions to open up new institutional mechanisms to promote disruptive technological innovation.
Third, focus on strengthening support for small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and high risk of disruptive technological innovation, start-ups or small and medium-sized enterprises need to explore more technical paths to reduce the uncertainty of technological innovation, so disruptive technological innovation needs to pay attention to supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. In the ninth phase of the R&D framework plan - "Horizon Europe" (2021-2027), the EU has adopted various methods such as "pathfinders", "converters" and "accelerators" to support the R&D activities of disruptive technological innovation of small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups, such as supporting early development activities of disruptive technologies, R&D to market solutions, and expanding the scale of enterprise markets. The United States also encourages small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out technological innovation activities by directly intervening in technology research and development activities through innovation policy and science and technology programs such as the SME Innovation Research Program (SBIR) and the Small Business Technology Transfer Research Program (STTR).
Fourth, ** and specific institutions are actively building disruptive technology innovation ecosystems. Through a comparative study of the successful cases of Silicon Valley seizing the revival of the semiconductor industry in the 80s of the 20th century and the failure of the 128 Highway recession, it is found that one of the enduring "innovation codes" of Silicon Valley is rooted in the local industrial innovation network composed of formal or informal connections between first-class universities, corporate management departments, venture capital, professional services institutions and industry associations. On the one hand, professional producers in network systems rely on a wide range of collective services provided externally to diversify risks and pool technical expertise, and rely on institutions to provide funding, research, management and technical education, training, entrepreneurial assistance and market information to facilitate the flow of knowledge, technology, talent and capitalOn the other hand, the horizontal coordination formed by the network between enterprises can enable enterprises to maintain the focus and flexibility required for continuous innovation, promote the emergence of start-ups, explore more technology paths, and promote disruptive technological innovation.
Fifth, cultivate a culture of innovation and cultivate innovative talents. The culture of innovation embodied in tolerance for failure and job hopping, entrepreneurial risk-taking, rich and enthusiastic lifestyles, and increasingly blurred social identities is another enduring "innovation code" in Silicon Valley. In terms of education and talent development, the United States has implemented free primary and secondary education since the 50s of the 19th century, and has promoted the development of colleges and research institutions with the Morrill Act, and established a complete and sound education system. It is characterized by paying special attention to cultivating students' divergent and critical thinking and innovation ability development, and improving students' ability to find and solve problems. In addition to cultivating talents through the construction of the education system, the United States has also gathered innovative talents through the enactment of the Immigration Act and other measures, providing a strong human foundation for disruptive technological innovation.
4.Countermeasures and suggestions
China has attached great importance to disruptive technological innovation, and has taken corresponding measures to carry out pilot exploration around some strategic issues. For example, the establishment of disruptive technology innovation, the establishment of disruptive technology innovation special, the holding of disruptive technology innovation competition, the exploration of disruptive technology innovation diversified investment mechanism, etc. Due to the differences in socio-economic, political history, institutional types and development stages of different countries, the disruptive technological innovation system also has its own unique development path and form. Focusing on the three strategic issues facing China's disruptive technological innovation, this paper analyzes the measures of typical countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Japan in terms of disruptive technological innovation, and obtains enlightenment and suggestions.
It is recommended to actively identify and grasp the turning points and stages of disruptive technological innovation. It is of great significance to proactively identify and grasp the turning point of disruptive technological innovation. After identifying the turning point, different policies and regulatory mechanisms need to be adopted for the different growth stages of disruptive technologies. During the gestation period, it is necessary to create an open, free and relaxed scientific environment to promote the free emergence of new technologiesIn infancy, by providing funding for the development of technical principles, we will build an early-stage application market of a certain scale, provide an innovation chain of trial and error iteration, and boost the market's choice of new technologiesIn the growth period, on the one hand, by encouraging technology transfer and transformation, promoting application diffusion and stimulating market vitality, on the other hand, strengthening industrial policies to guide the agglomeration of market forces to form an innovation chain, and promoting the iterative optimization of industrial technology competitivenessIn the outbreak period, the policy is mainly to encourage industrial investment to expand the scale and create a fair competition market environment. Establish a continuous tracking and identification of disruptive technological innovation, a monitoring mechanism and improve the ability of early warning and response. It is recommended to cooperate with experts and scholars from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, universities and research institutions to form an interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary disruptive technology innovation research team, and carry out early research and identification research on disruptive technology innovation in the form of projects or the establishment of a national advisory committee for cross-field disruptive technology innovationEstablish a data collection and data analysis platform for disruptive technology innovation, and provide data support and analysis method support for the early identification of disruptive technology innovationDevelop tools and applications for monitoring, evaluation and early warning, strengthen the comprehensive and integrated application of various advanced methods, continue to track the frontier areas and advanced technologies of disruptive technological innovation, evaluate the maturity of technology, the degree of technology realizability and its impact, and provide decision-making support for optimizing the allocation of resources for disruptive technological innovation. Deepen the reform of the scientific research management system and mechanism, and establish a new management platform. It is suggested that based on major needs, a flexible and efficient new management platform for disruptive technology innovation should be established, so as to attract outstanding talents from universities, research institutions and enterprises, and strengthen high-risk and high-return disruptive technology innovation and cutting-edge exploration. With the new management platform as a pilot, formulate a reasonable scientific research management mechanism and evaluation mechanism for disruptive technological innovation, reform the organization and management mode of the project, including exploring the evaluation mechanism and evaluation mechanism of interdisciplinary research projects, promote cross-national, cross-institutional, and cross-field project application and cooperation, enhance the autonomy of innovative talents in decision-making and management of disruptive technological innovation, support the development of multi-technology routes, strengthen technical reserves, and create a good atmosphere for innovation. Build a disruptive technology innovation ecosystem to help cross the "valley of death". On the one hand, China has strengthened its support for the technological innovation of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, introduced policies such as innovation research plans and technology transfer plans for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises as soon as possible, paid attention to the marketization of key technologies of innovative enterprises, supported and promoted the innovation research and innovation transfer activities of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, and helped enterprises cross the "valley of death" of disruptive technological innovationOn the other hand, with first-class funds as the guide, we will gather multiple investment subjects, attract more market capital to enter the financing vacuum between basic research and commercial production, and gradually establish a sound set of financial supporting policies for venture capital, credit and guarantees, and guide the early intervention of funds. With culture and education as the starting point, we will build a good environment for innovation. Create a relaxed cultural atmosphere, further deepen the reform of the education system, strengthen innovative education, improve the quality of innovation for the whole people, and enhance the self-confidence and ideological realm of innovatorsThe spirit of scientific innovation will be carried forward as an important part of the scientific quality of citizens, and the majority of young people will understand, love and participate in scientific innovation in a variety of ways such as scientific lectures and new scientific disseminationIncrease investment in the introduction of high-level talents in disruptive technological innovation.