Technology
The UK's National Weather Office (Dec. 8)** -- The global average surface temperature in 2024 could be 15 years above the first year. This is the first time that the Met Office has the potential for temperatures to temporarily exceed 1 in a year5. Temporarily exceeding does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been violated. In 2015, ** from around the world** agreed at a meeting in Paris to work to prevent global temperatures from rising by 1 above pre-industrial levels5℃。But more than 1The first year of 5 is sure to be a landmark event in climate history.
According to **, 2024 has a 27% chance of being 1 percent warmer than the average temperature from 1850 to 19005℃。However, the probability is higher than 27%, as temperatures in 2023 exceed expectations. For the 10 years leading up to 2023, the global average surface temperature has been in the range of the Met Office's first year of the year. But for a record 2023, the average warming from January to October is 14, up from 1 at the end of 2022**1℃—1.3℃。
Part of the reason may be that the current El Niño phenomenon is stronger than expected. During El Niño, changing winds spread warm water throughout the Pacific Ocean, temporarily warming the atmosphere. In addition, the eruption of Tonga's underwater volcano in 2022 also injected a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, which has a warming effect. What's more, temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere are warmer than expected, and the reasons for this are not entirely clear.
Looking at the temperature only in a single month rather than in a year, it exceeded 1 for the first time on record5 The month of restriction was January 2016, which coincided with the last strong El Niño. The following month was even warmer, with an abnormal warming of 164 is by far the hottest month. However, this number may be exceeded in November this year.
Earlier this year, November 17 was the first day to exceed the 2 limit of pre-industrial warming, according to short-term data. Based on current trends, long-term average temperatures are expected to rise above the 2 limit around the 40s of this century.