Event stimulus:
The industrial chain tends to bottom out, especially the module has fallen to the zero gross profit level after the decline of raw materials, indicating that the profitability of the middle and downstream of the integration may have a bottom-up trend.
The latest news: In November, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 2132GW, a year-on-year increase of 1854%, an increase of 565%。December is usually the peak season for grid connection, and terminal demand is expected to remain strong.
Focus on logic:
The data of photovoltaic installation and export are improving
From January to October 2023, 142 new PV installations will be added in China56GW, up 145% year-on-year. Driven by the traditional PV installation peak season in the fourth quarter, terminal demand is expected to continue to be released, further refreshing the record of new domestic PV installations throughout the year.
In November, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 2132GW, a year-on-year increase of 1854%, an increase of 565%。In the same month, China's solar cells (including modules) exported 459.12 million, an increase of 75%；Export amount 25US$500 million, down 49%。The number of inverters exported in China was 3.8 million units, an increase of 22 from the previous month3%；Export amount 5$600 million, an increase of 12%。The new domestic installed capacity achieved 56 in November after being negative month-on-month for three consecutive monthsThe 5% month-on-month increase is estimated to be mainly stimulated by the rush to install at the end of the yearIt is expected that the new installed capacity of PV in December is still expected to exceed 20GW, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 180-190GW for the whole year.
The power of Tongwei HJT modules has set a new record, and it is optimistic about the acceleration of HJT industrialization
On December 21, 2023, the front power of Tongwei THC modules reached 755 under the standard size of 2384*1303mm03W, the conversion efficiency breaks through to 2431%, once again setting a new record for the power and efficiency of HJT modules. This is the sixth time this year that Tongwei has set new records for the power and efficiency of HJT modules. This power record is due to breakthroughs in battery velvet structure, CVD passivation and metallization technology, and optimization of the optical and electrical design of superimposed modules. With the gradual flattening of HJT's cost, the prominent power advantage, and the shortening of the investment period, we expect HJT to expand its industry-wide production by 50-60GW in 2023, mainly by new players, and we judge that HJT is expected to usher in the large-scale expansion of traditional mainstream manufacturers in 2024.
The upstream and downstream production and research are linked, and the prototype of perovskite industrialization has emerged
Perovskite cells have unlimited prospects for cost reduction and efficiency increase, with single junctions covering special scenarios such as BIPV, and tandem enabling crystalline silicon to further improve efficiency. Perovskite cells have the advantages of high conversion efficiency, strong light absorption, adjustable band gap, low material cost, and short production process. With the rapid development of domestic perovskite cell technology and the trend of accelerating technology industrialization, a large number of outstanding enterprises such as GCL Optoelectronics, Micronano Optoelectronics, and Jidian Solar have successively landed perovskite 100 MW pilot lines and achieved excellent efficiency performance.