Reporter Chen Shuhan.
Recently, the international gold price has risen strongly, breaking the record in May this year and hitting a record high. Why is the international gold price so strong, and is there any motivation to support it to continue to climb in the later period?In this regard, experts interviewed by the China Economic Times generally believe that the weakening of the U.S. macroeconomy and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates are the core reasons for the gold price, and there is a high probability that it will continue to strengthen in the later period.
An all-time high.
New York*** and London spot*** have hit record highs. On December 4, New York hit an intraday high of 21523 US dollars an ounce, and the London spot ** hit an intraday high of 2144$68 oz. At the same time, related to **, ETF**, etc. also show a corresponding trend.
Wu Dan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the international gold price hit a new high due to the interweaving of multiple factors, specifically for three reasons: First, the current global political and economic pattern continues to be turbulent, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still heating up, international oil prices continue to rise, and the investment market is filled with strong worries and strong hedging demand. Second, the interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve has begun in many international institutions, and the subsequent US dollar index will show a downward trend, boosting the trend of international gold prices. Third, the global "de-dollarization" process has a clear tendency to accelerate. At present, more and more countries are starting to de-dollarize, including selling US Treasury bonds, replacing ** reserves or non-dollar reserves, etc., in order to resist the negative impact of "dollar hegemony" on their economies. Therefore, global central banks continue to increase their reserves and have plans to continue to hoard gold, which has further driven the growth of demand.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, analyzed to the China Economic Times reporter through a set of data that the recent rise in international gold prices was mainly catalyzed by two factors. First of all, since November, the dollar index has fluctuated downward, which will directly push up the dollar-denominated international *** Secondly, data released by Eurostat on November 30 showed that inflation in the euro area fell to 24%, down from 29%, the downward range exceeded market expectations, and the US CPI fell to 3 year-on-year in October2%, down from the previous value of 37%, these data made the market start to expect that the US and European central banks could start to cut interest rates after the first quarter of 2024 at the earliest. As a result, the inflation trend of major economies has a significant impact on the recent international market sentiment, which is an important reason for pushing up the international gold price.
At the same time, Wang Qing also mentioned that the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has pushed up the demand for safe haven in the short term, and the price of gold has soared. At present, the impact of this factor has weakened, and it has played little role in the process of this round of international gold prices hitting record highs.
or will continue the ** upward trend.
The international gold price has retreated after hitting a record high, showing a high** trend in recent trading days. As of press time, New York *** newspaper 2046$1 ounce, London spot** at 2029$49 oz. Industry insiders generally believe that recently, the international gold price has shown signs of strength, but it will still maintain a strong trend in the later period.
From November 14 to the present, the international gold price has lasted for nearly a month, and from the trend of recent trading days, there are signs of gold price. Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that on the one hand, as market sentiment calms down, the momentum to promote the rapid development of gold prices is weakening;On the other hand, the risk of gold prices is increasing as the short-term gold price rises sharply. Therefore, it is expected that the probability of capping the gold price trend will increase in the short term, and the short-term investment risk will intensify.
He said that with the convening of the U.S. interest rate meeting in December, the release of economic data in November and December, the trend of interest rate policy has been further clarified, and there is still room for fluctuations in assets, and there is no shortage of investment opportunities.
For the later trend of gold prices, Su Jian believes that the international gold price will rise sharply in the later period. He said that although the current global high inflation has been effectively controlled, and the process of raising interest rates has also been suspended, there is still great uncertainty about the start of the interest rate cut cycle. Due to the interference of factors such as base effect and international relations, the inflation rate may fluctuate, resulting in changes in the trend of international gold prices.
In an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times, Wang Yaoji, deputy director of the Institute of Fudan University, predicted that the international gold price will remain strong in at least the next one or two quarters. He said that in the context of the easing of dollar supply, because the global political and economic situation is still severe, people's expectations are still relatively pessimistic, and de-dollarization is still a popular trend, so the central banks to increase the demand for ** reserves and household gold hedging is still growing, especially at the end of the year, it is the traditional gold buying and gifting season and the "buy up, not buy down" psychological factors to boost.
Wang Qing is also optimistic about international gold prices in the short term. He said that in the short term, the U.S. dollar index still has downward momentum, and the market's expectations for the U.S. and European central banks to cut interest rates ahead of schedule may also continue to ferment, which may promote international gold prices to continue to be strong. At the same time, he also pointed out that the Fed's policy rate will remain high in 2024, which means that the room for the US dollar to decline deeply is limited, and global inflation has entered a narrowing process, which is not conducive to the trend of gold prices. Judging from this, the international gold price in 2024 may be dominated by the downward trend. However, in recent years, the frequency of major international risk events has increased, which means that the international gold price will continue to fluctuate sharply in 2024 under the stimulus of safe-haven demand.
Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the market's concerns about the global economic outlook may ease, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on gold prices. But all things considered, gold prices have a long-term trend. He reminded investors to still be cautious and make sound investment decisions based on their risk appetite and investment objectives.
Wu Dan also believes that in the future, the investment value of related financial assets will still be high, but there is also a risk of volatility. For investors, they can actively pay attention to the trend and sector, and choose the right time to increase the asset allocation.