Cities 
In 2023, the transaction scale of commercial housing in 100 cities across the country will decline at a low level and continue to build a bottom**. The monthly trend showed a pulse-like recovery, with the resilience of second-hand transactions better than that of new houses, the increase in listing volume and the decline in price, and the full undertaking of rigid demand. In fact, even if the core first and second lines have successively relaxed purchase restrictions and loan restrictions from September to October, the marginal effect on the boost to transactions has decreased, and the deep adjustment of the property market will continue. The number of hot cities has gradually decreased, and even the top cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have shown signs of cooling down in the short term. Summary.
Market Overview: In 2023, new houses will be bottomed out, urban projects will be deeply differentiated, and second-hand resilience will be better than that of new houses.
Looking at the changes in the property market transactions in 120 key cities in recent years, 2019-2021 has maintained a high and slight increase trend, and since the second half of 2021, the downturn has continued to 2022, and since 2023, although it has also ushered in two rounds of impulse recovery, the overall recovery is not sustainable enough, and it continues to bottom: it is estimated that the annual new house ** is expected to be 26.8 billion square meters, down 13% year-on-year, and the transaction is expected to be 31.7 billion square meters, down 6% year-on-year, and the supply-demand ratio increased from 091 drops to just 084, supply constraints are becoming more and more obvious.
Deep differentiation is the most important feature of the current property market, second-hand housing with delivery security and low price selling, the overall transaction resilience is better than that of new housing, and the transaction volume increases and the price falls. Urban differentiation has intensified, and under the weak market repair pattern, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities have turned down, and Nanning, Changchun, Xuzhou and other cities have continued to decline. From the perspective of demand customers, due to the overall ebb of investment, the demand for self-occupation has returned, and the improved customer group favors the most scarce sector and the first inverted low-density new houses, while the rigid demand customers focus on the new houses with large discounts and high cost performance in suburban counties or the second-hand houses with small areas and low total prices in urban areas.
The differentiation of projects has intensified, and the common characteristics of hot-selling projects are nothing more than the following: First, the scarcity in the regional plate, which is generally in the core of the city, and some even show signs of first-hand and second-hand upside down, with more monks and less porridge, which makes the heat higher in the short term. The second is the rigid demand plate with high cost performance, large discounts, and marketing in place, which also caters to the needs of some first-home customers with high sensitivity. The third is a high-quality real estate with core supporting resources such as school districts, business districts, and medical care. Fourth, the developer has a background of central state-owned enterprises, or local leading enterprises, good reputation, or unique product design, and some projects with strong soft power. Fifth, there are still a small number of real estate projects that are affected by favorable policies in the short term, and the loosening of purchase restrictions and the stimulation of consumption vouchers have ushered in a wave of volume.
New**: The supply constraints have intensified due to the reduction of sales and production + the shrinkage of the local market, and the decline in the third and fourth lines has exceeded 2%.
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According to CRIC statistics, in the first 11 months of 2023, the new area of commercial housing in 120 key cities across the country was 241.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Even if December ushers in the "tail lift", the scale of new homes for the whole year is still expected to shrink to a five-year low, mainly due to the dual impact of the downturn in new homes and the significant shrinkage of the local market. From the perspective of monthly performance, only in March and September, the monthly volume exceeded 30 million square meters, and most of the remaining months fluctuated around 20 million square meters, and the supply constraints became more and more significant.
Combined with the estimated data of the key 30 cities in December, it is not difficult to see that the volume of the fourth quarter decreased slightly by 3% compared with the third quarter, the first-tier cities increased month-on-month due to the volume of Beijing and Shanghai, the second and third tiers decreased by 6%, and the 30 cities fell by 10% year-on-year, and the supply constraints became more and more obvious.
The number of new houses in most cities this year is not as good as in 2022, and most of the decline is more than 3% in Kunming, Wuxi, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Jiaxing and other weak second- and third-tier cities. In hot cities such as Chengdu and Xi'an, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch projects is high, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6%, and the supply of new houses in core first- and second-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Tianjin also shows a steady increase, with an increase of more than 15%.
New housing transactions: two rounds of impulse recovery, a slight decline in scale, and hot spots such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Rong are also under pressure.
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CRIC monitoring data shows that in the first 11 months of 2023, the total transaction area of commercial residential buildings in 120 typical cities across the country was 293.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Different from the "step-by-step" recovery in previous years, this year's property market has shown a "pulse" recovery: first, from March to April 2023, due to the lifting of the epidemic lockdown and policy adjustments, a wave of rigid and rigid demand has been releasedThen, from September to October, with the implementation of policies such as recognising houses and not recognising loans, and loosening purchase restrictions in core first- and second-tier cities, the market ushered in another round of short-term recovery.
Combined with the estimated data of the key 30 cities in December, it is not difficult to see that the transaction volume in the fourth quarter increased by 20% compared with the third quarter, mainly due to the continuous increase in the relaxation policy of the core first- and second-tier cities in the fourth quarter. The second and third lines increased by 22% month-on-month, exceeding the first-line increase. The cumulative annual transaction volume of 30 cities increased slightly by 1% year-on-year, which was basically the same as last year, and continued to build a bottom**.
Urban differentiation has intensified, which can be divided into the following five categories: First, the annual transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities are not as good as in 2022, and the market has maintained stable operation in the fourth quarter under the blessing of favorable new policies such as "recognising houses without recognising loans", partial relaxation of purchase restrictions, down payment reductions, interest rate reductions, and adjustment of general housing standards. Second, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an and other central and western cities** are self-contained, with a huge population base of self-occupation demand to support the short-term heat of the property market, the cumulative year-on-year growth throughout the year. Third, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing, which are also large cities with large populations, continue to decline in purchasing power, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions continues to increase, and the new housing market is slowly recovering. Fourth, Suzhou, Ningbo and other core second-tier cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are rich in the people, mainly rely on improving demand-driven, and the pace of pushing the most scarce sectors in the core area directly determines the monthly fluctuation of the market removal rate, and the high-end supply constraints are gradually emerging this year. Fifth, the markets of Kunming, Fuzhou, Jiaxing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Xuzhou and other weak second and third cities continued to decline, not only the transaction was sluggish, but also the housing prices fell again and again, and they were in the bottoming stage.
Second-hand housing: The transaction area increased by 33% year-on-year throughout the year, with Shenzhen-Ronghang-Hangzhou transactions leading the rise, and Xia-Chongqing not as good as last year.
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In 2023, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the 30 key monitoring cities will be 181.62 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 33%. In the fourth quarter, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in 30 cities was about 45.19 million square meters, an increase of 12% month-on-month and 37% year-on-year.
On a monthly basis, second-hand housing transactions showed an impulsive recovery trend. February to April is the first round of strong recovery, under the influence of multiple factors such as the Spring Festival, the lifting of the ban on the epidemic, and the relaxation of policies, the second-hand housing transactions in February showed a strong recovery momentum, and the transaction area of 30 cities approached 16 million square meters, doubling year-on-year, and the transaction in March maintained a rapid increase, and hit a new high in a single month in the past three years. Since September, the second round of recovery has begun**, and under the stimulus of policies such as recognising houses and not recognising loans, second-hand housing transactions have continued to rebound steadily, but the recovery momentum is weaker than the first round.
From the perspective of cities, the transaction performance of Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu in the fourth quarter was relatively bright, with the year-on-year increase in transaction volume in the first place, while Hefei and Qingdao faced the best trend. Shenzhen, Chengdu and Hangzhou also led the rise throughout the year, and the performance of Xiamen and Chongqing markets was not as good as last year. The performance of second-hand housing transactions in most key cities is significantly stronger than that of the same period last year, with Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc. leading the growth, reaching about 5 percent, however, the second-hand housing market in individual cities such as Xiamen, Chongqing, and Dalian has not improved, and the transaction continues to be sluggish, and the cumulative year-on-year growth continues to be negative.
Housing prices: New houses are more resistant to decline than second-hand, and the proportion of improvement projects in Dongguan and Yongsu has risen.
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From a national point of view, judging from the changes in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing will enter a downward channel year-on-year and month-on-month from 2022, and from January to May 2023, there will be some, but since June, it has returned to the downward range, and it still fell month-on-month in November.
On a year-on-year basis, second-hand residential sales** took the lead in the decline of new homes in February last year, and until January this year, the decline continued to expand, as much as 38%, from February to May, with the phased Xiaoyangchun**, the decline in second-hand residential sales** narrowed, but after June, it turned downward, to October**34%。The newly built commercial residential buildings entered the negative growth range in May last year and fell by 0 in October this year6%。The number of cities with a year-on-year decline in second-hand housing is large and still growing, with 68 cities by November, while the number of cities with a year-on-year decline in new home sales** is 48.
Focusing on the new housing market, judging from the statistical average transaction price of newly built commercial residential buildings in key cities in 2023 monitored by CRIC monitoring, the housing prices in the first-tier and strong second- and third-tier cities supported by improved demand are relatively stable, while the housing prices in the weak second- and third-tier cities in the inland are larger**.
Specifically, first-tier and Changchang and Pearl River Delta cities occupy the high point of housing prices. For example, the average transaction price of commercial housing in Shanghai in the first 11 months exceeded 60,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of **5%. Secondly, in cities such as Beijing, Xiamen, Dongguan, Yiwu, Suzhou and other cities where the demand for improvement is still strong, housing prices have different ranges year-on-year**. Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing, etc., affected by the push structure and the weakening of transactions, etc., housing prices **.
In terms of changes, the larger increase is mainly concentrated in addition to the hot spot of Chengdu, Beijing, there are also some cities such as Dongguan, Ningbo, Suzhou, etc., affected by the increase in the proportion of high-end transactions, and the overall housing prices of weak two or three cities have entered the first period, such as Sanya, with the investment demand to surpass, the overall housing prices fell by as much as 16%, ranking first in different cities, Lhasa, Xining, Qingdao and other inland cities are also facing deep adjustments, and real estate companies have accelerated the exchange of price for volume, with a year-on-year decline of about 10%.
New home inventory: Q3 rebounded slightly to 5200 million square meters is still at the bottom of the stage, and the digestion cycle has changed from increasing to decreasing.
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In 2023, the narrow inventory will continue to fall, with a slight increase in the fourth quarter, but it is still a phased bottom. According to CRIC monitoring data, at the end of November 2023, the inventory of commercial housing in Baicheng reached 518.52 million square meters, a slight increase of 2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
From the perspective of the change of the decontamination cycle, taking April and September as the turning point, April changed from decline to increase, while September changed from increase to decline and remained stable, reaching 25 by the end of NovemberIn 4 months, it increased slightly by 1% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. The first line was flat at 18In 8 months, the second and third lines continued to decline month-on-month, and the third and fourth lines maintained an upward trend. At present, the third and fourth line decontamination cycle has exceeded 36 months, hitting a new high since 2019, and the risk of decontamination has emerged.
Specifically, the inventory in the first-tier city of Shanghai is still at a low level, and the destocking cycle is only 10 months, and the supply-oriented characteristics are significant. Guangzhou is 185 months, year-on-year decline, the overall inventory risk is controllable;The de-escalation cycle in Beijing and Shenzhen is more than 20 months, and the recent transaction heat in Beijing has turned downward, while the digestion cycle in Shenzhen is more than 2 years, and the risk of de-industrialization is still large.
Among the second-tier cities, only four cities, including Harbin, Hohhot, Dalian and Shenyang, have a digestion cycle of more than 40 months, while Hangzhou, Hefei and other cities have a digestion cycle of less than 10 months, and there is almost no short-term risk of de-escalation. From the perspective of changes, the year-on-year gains and falls are mixed, and the cities with an increase of more than 20% are mainly divided into the following two categories: one is Hangzhou, Hefei and other short-term market cold cities, and the other is Jinan, Shenyang, Harbin, Hohhot and other inland weak second-tier cities. Qingdao, Chongqing, Lanzhou, Zhengzhou and other supply and demand are weak, and they are still in the stage of destocking, and the destocking cycle is stable and declining.
Prospect. New**: The shrinkage of the local market + the slowdown in construction has exacerbated the supply constraints, and the core first and second lines have accelerated with sales and production**.
It is expected that in 2023, the total amount of commercial housing in the country will still decline steadily, and the overall decline may slow down compared with this year, mainly based on the following points: First, in the first 11 months of 2023, the transaction area of 300 urban operating land will decrease by 2% year-on-year, and the overall decline will slow down slightly, but it is still at a low level, and the scale of new land that can be started in the future is still limited;Second, this year will continue the main tone of state-owned enterprises and urban investment support, which will objectively slow down the overall pace of new construction and new market entryThird, under the current sluggish market environment, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to promote the market is relatively average, mainly to focus on "destocking" and promote the "high turnover" of marketable products, which also leads to the overall improvement of quality and shrinkage.
In terms of energy levels, in the short term, the overall volume of Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, etc., which are relatively hot, is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the sluggish second-tier and inland third- and fourth-tier new houses may continue to hover at a low level, and the cities that have fallen to the bottom of the historical scale may stop falling, but there is no hope of recovery.
Transactions: The total volume of the whole year may fall slightly to continue to bottom, and the proportion of second-hand transactions such as Zheng Yuhan will also increase.
Predicting 2024, we believe that the total volume of transactions will still fall, and it is expected to continue to bottom. Judging from the trend of the whole year, there is a high probability of continuing this year's impulsive recovery, and the traditional "Golden Three Silver Four" and "Golden Nine Silver Ten" may usher in a small wave band for the better, but the sustainability is insufficient.
In terms of energy levels, the transaction enthusiasm of first-tier cities continued, and the overall transaction area decreased steadily and slightly. The transaction scale of second-tier cities remained stable, and the rotation between strong and weak cities recovered. First of all, if Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, etc., which are currently the most popular, do not continue to increase the weight of favorable policies, the transaction may face a phased bottleneck, and it will decline steadily. Secondly, the core cities facing adjustment this year, such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuhan and Tianjin, may rebound at a low level, and the demand for home purchase and self-occupation will recover slightly. Finally, for weak second-tier cities such as Nanning, Fuzhou, and Kunming, where the current market is still in a downturn, they may face a 1-3 year period of low-level consolidation, and it is difficult to see a significant improvement in short-term transactions.
After two years of adjustment, most cities have fallen to the bottom of the transaction, and there is no way to fall, and the strong third-tier cities with strong domestic demand can still maintain market heat, such as Kunshan, Yiwu, Jinhua and other southeast coastal third and fourth lines, which are rich in the people, and the property market transaction scale is expected to rebound compared with 2024.
In addition, it is worth noting that the trend of second-hand resilience stronger than that of new houses will continue, especially for cities dominated by customers such as Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing.
Inventory: supply and demand are rebalanced, the narrow inventory of 500 million is stable in stages, and the third and fourth lines of destocking are difficult and difficult (omitted).
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Article**: Kerry