How many of Brazil's soybeans harvested this year will not be put on the market?The answer is still very incorrect, but there is a lot of speculation at the moment. Rural producers, analysts and market advisors, ** institutions all have their own opinions, and although they are very divided, the point of agreement among them is that their numbers will still change a lot at least until the 2023-24 harvest season begins effectively. Estimates of production from private consulting firms are currently still at 150.7 billion tons to 155.3 billion tons. However, among soybean growers, Brazil's production did not reach 1500 million.
Matheus Pereira, head of agribusiness at Patria Brazil, said: "This breakthrough is expanding at a more aggressive pace than any previous public survey. ”。With Brazil's soybean production declining, we will not be able to break the record for soybean exports or consumption in 2024. Because we no longer have enough control stocks from last year, and the total ** volume will not generate a surplus, it will be a deficit crop. So, in fact, we will have to deplete past crop stocks to at least balance global soybean consumption in 2024. ”
A significant number of analysts and advisers believe that the "normalization" of production in Argentina could offset the losses in Brazilian fields. Argentina has experienced a historic hiatus over the past three years. Uncertainty is therefore a strong and profound sign of this moment, as it is susceptible to changes that are still quite significant.
Safras & Mercado analyst Luiz Fernando Gutierrez believes that considering Brazil's crop – in the worst-case scenario so far – is 1500 million tonnes, 48 million to 50 million tonnes for Argentina's "conventional" crops – about 200 million tonnes, between the two countries and "that's more than we will produce in 2023, because Argentina only produces 21 million tonnes." So putting it on the world table – Paraguay is still close to 10 million tonnes and Uruguay is recovering – still shows higher production than last year and larger inventories, even if consumption is expected to increase. ”。Consumption growth in 2024 is estimated to be between 3 million and 4 million, which is less than the growth in production, even after accounting for losses. ”
It can be said that, in a practical sense, only in Brazil is less than 1500 million tonnes is the case to be short of soybeans, and Gutierrez's analysis is still the same.
But this is still very uncertain. It's hard to quantify losses this year, and I think in some states, like Rio Grande do Sul in the Southeast and Midwest, we're still going to have negative and positive surprises. The doubt remains Matopiba. However, I think it's too early to talk about the 'lack of beans', which still depends a lot on the confirmation of Argentina now and the harvest. ”。He said.
Brazilian soybean producers are the most diverse in reporting at this time. In the ** below, the first ** shows a soybean CAPO in good condition, which should produce a satisfactory production potential in Toledo, Paraná. In the second drought, another field in Nuevo Mutum, in the province of Mato Grosso, was killed by drought.
* Continues to indicate that weather conditions in Brazil remain very irregular in the last week of 2023 and are expected to change over time. According to information from INMET (National Meteorological Institute), this week rains will remain scarce in much of the central and northern parts of the country, especially in the central west and northeast, in addition to continuing above normal rainfall in the south of the country, mainly concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul. As temperatures remain high, some areas of Rio Grande do Sul could experience hail again.
Over the weekend, the map shows that more rainfall is likely to occur in most of Mato Piba, parts of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Minas Gerais and São Paulo, in addition to greater rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul.
In Rio Grande do Sul, planting is still delayed because the soil is still heavily soaked and planting is still delayed, and many areas where field operations may have taken place have ended up disappearing due to excessive rainfall.
Excessive rainfall has punished gaucho producers and has also worried producers in parts of Argentina. Other storms hit grain-producing areas southeast of Buenos Aires. According to information from the local portal Infocampo, in addition to heavy rains, strong winds and violent hail were recorded, causing considerable damage to rural property.
According to the first data collected by the Argentine Agricultural Federation (FAA), in some places 70 to 100 percent of the summer crop was lost and the winter crop was lost by about 60 percent.