The prospect of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire talks is difficult. Several Israel**s have recently reported that Israel, the United States and Qatar** have held consultations in Warsaw, the Polish capital, on the exchange of detainees between Israel and Palestinian. At the same time, leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip have also traveled to Cairo, the capital of Egypt, to discuss with the Egyptian side the issue of a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire. Since its outbreak on 7 October, a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted more than 70 days. Analysts pointed out that Israel was forced to return to the negotiating table because it was forced to return to the negotiating table because it was under pressure at home to prioritize the rescue of detainees, and externally it was under pressure from the United States to reduce the intensity of military action and the international community to call for a ceasefire. However, there is a wide gap between the demands of Israel and Hamas, so the prospects for ceasefire negotiations are uncertain. On 20 December, people in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah carried out rescue efforts following Israeli airstrikes (see **) and the Palestinians and Israelis recently held intensive talks on the issue of a renewed ceasefire and the exchange of detainees.
According to Israel's **18**, the head of the Israeli Intelligence and Secret Service (Mossad) Barnea met with the head of the US ** intelligence service, Burns, and the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar Mohammed bin Salman in Warsaw on the same day. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh led a delegation to Cairo, the capital of Egypt, on the 20th and held talks with the Egyptian side. Egypt's Al-Ahram newspaper quoted an unnamed source as saying that Hamas and the Egyptian side would "prepare an agreement" for the release of detainees and the lifting of the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Israel** Herzog said Israel is ready to impose a humanitarian ceasefire again and allow more humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip, as well as facilitate the release of more detainees from the Gaza Strip. He pointed out that Israel is currently facing multiple pressures, including the United States calling for a de-escalation of military operations, and the international community and domestic people calling for a ceasefire, so it has to return to the negotiating table. Analysts point out that the goals of Israel's military operation are currently difficult to achieve, so negotiations are needed to reduce tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant have repeatedly said that the military operation in Gaza is aimed at eliminating Hamas and rescuing detainees.
Israel and Hamas imposed a seven-day temporary ceasefire beginning on 24 November and released 240 Palestinians and more than 100 detainees. However, after the end of the temporary ceasefire, the two sides exchanged fire again, and more than 120 people remained in Hamas custody in the Gaza Strip. Israel then extended its ground operations from the northern part of the Gaza Strip to Khan Younis in the south, but was unsuccessful in rescuing more detained Israelis. The Israeli Research Institute recently published an article pointing out that the Israeli army's military goals cannot be achieved by ground war alone. At the same time, there has been a subtle change in the attitude of the United States. As an ally of Israel, the United States has provided diplomatic support to Israel since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, with the rapid increase in the number of people in the Gaza Strip, the United States is facing international pressure, and its attitude towards Israel has gradually turned tough. Recently, U.S. Affairs Assistant Jake Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and other senior U.S. officials have traveled to Israel to urge Israel to shift its military operations to a "low-intensity phase." According to the British newspaper The Times**, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has set a deadline for Israel to end its ground operation in the Gaza Strip by early January next year.
In addition, the families of Israeli detainees recently staged a mass march demanding a ceasefire and the release of their relatives. Recently, the accidental killing of three of its own detainees by Israeli forces has triggered large-scale uprisings in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, adding pressure on Israel to ceasefire. Israeli negotiators have met with the Qatari side to express their willingness to reach a new agreement, but only if the conditions of the temporary ceasefire at the end of November are extended, according to a senior Israeli negotiator. Some analysts have pointed out that although the Palestinians and Israelis are once again back at the negotiating table, the current round of ceasefire talks is expected to be very difficult due to the large gap between the demands of the two sides. According to sources, Hamas's conditions include a long-term rather than a temporary ceasefire with Israel, the release of all Israelis in custody, and Israel's release of Palestinians in custody. Israel, for its part, wants a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of the detainees. On 7 December, in Tel Aviv, Israel, people held a rally, holding lighted candles, in anticipation of the early return of those detained in the Gaza Strip. According to the Israeli newspaper Novaya Izvestia, citing sources, the new round of negotiations will be "long and complicated, more difficult than the previous one." *Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Junqing.
Some analysts have pointed out that if the Israeli army continues to strike at the Gaza Strip but fails to achieve the set goals, or if Israel agrees to the higher conditions proposed by Hamas in the negotiations, it may cause dissatisfaction among the far-right forces in Israel, causing them to withdraw from the ruling coalition, which will lead to the collapse of the incumbent. In this case, Israel may face a new round of parliamentary elections, further exacerbating political instability and adding more uncertainty to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This uncertainty could further complicate the situation and bring more instability to the region.