The premonition of the central media's regulation of China's real estate is getting stronger day by day, do you feel the same way?
The real estate industry is an important part of China's economy, all major events, the main time node, the economy will closely follow the national policy ideas, give relevant analysis and judgment on the property market, for some people who do not see the market clearly, or have no time to pay attention to the property market information to provide reference. Towards the end of the year, as the official ** provided by the daily economic information, it is a guide for the market next year, which has a high reference.
In December, the Economic ** wrote two consecutive articles related to the real estate industry in a week. On December 15, according to the data on the change in housing sales in 11 large and medium-sized cities released by the Bureau of Statistics, an article entitled "Confidence in the Stabilization and Rebound of the Property Market", and on December 20, an article entitled "Jointly Maintaining the Stable and Healthy Development of the Property Market", the tone of the two articles is similar, and the content is basically the same at the end of paragraph A, indicating that the official view on the current property market and future regulation is consistent, and the direction is clear. Therefore, we focus on the point of view expounded in the second article to see how the property market is moving towards positioningHow to understand?
1) "China's real estate market is still in a period of adjustment"。
This is the general tone of the property market at this stage, the article quoted the Bureau of Statistics as saying that in the real estate data from January to November, whether it is real estate development investment, or commercial housing sales and sales area, compared with the same period last year, there are still varying degrees of decline. In addition to the rebound in the transaction area of commercial housing, this depends on"Both volume and price rose"And the support of various measures to stimulate demand, it can only be said that there is a marginal improvement, and the market as a whole is still adjusting, which is also a response to some exaggerated news, and the market has not seen a fundamental reversal.
2) "Aggregate demand remained stable"It is a strong support for real estate development.
On this issue, some people are a little skeptical, and now developers are in difficulty, not because of poor sales, how can they say that demand is still stable?
In fact, I don't know if you have noticed that although new homes are not selling well, the transaction volume of second-hand houses is increasing. As we all know, in Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other big cities, the number of second-hand housing transactions has increased in recent months. Information provided by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also shows that from January to November, the transaction volume of second-hand housing achieved a positive annual growth. The data provided by Beike also confirms this: in the first 11 months, the national second-hand housing transaction volume increased from 2600 million square meters rose to more than 400 million square meters, an increase of about 1500 million square meters, the transaction volume in December has not yet been announced, but it is already enough to offset the decline in new home transaction volume by 1500 million square meters. Therefore, compared with last year, the demand for housing has not only not declined, but has increased to a certain extent, which should be the biggest result of the harmonious development of the real estate industry in the future.
3.After the real estate market entered the adjustment cycle, the relevant departments introduced policies to optimize the real estate market, and the effect began to appear.
The article takes Beijing and Shanghai as examples. After the implementation of the down payment and interest rate reduction policies, the actual demand for home purchases has been stimulated, and the number of visits and transactions has increased, and the market activity is expected to continue to increase, which will help change the market expectations of home buyers. This has also been corroborated by the data, according to the ** unannounced visit, whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, the number of people looking at the house has increased significantly compared with the previous period, plus the average daily and weekly data, representing a growth of about 30%-40%, the first weekend after the new deal, the online signing data of the Shanghai weekend represents a growth of 136% month-on-month. More importantly, the expectations of second-hand house owners are changing, according to the daily economic network, some owners in Beijing told the real estate agency store that the old rags that were negotiated before should be sold, and the price cannot be reduced. In the conversation between the agent and the owner, I can feel that some of the owners are starting to get excited.
From the latest transaction data, it can be found that although there is no obvious change compared with some time ago, it is still a price for volume, but it is obvious that the change in the mentality of buyers and sellers can be felt.
4) In order to resolve the debt risk of real estate enterprises, the financial sector has introduced relevant support policies, but it takes time to offset the risk, and there is a process.
This policy has been in place for some time, and the state requires commercial banks to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, whether private or state-owned, without discrimination. As mentioned in the article, several major state-owned banks have issued more than €30 billion worth of development loans to private real estate companies from November to now, which means that the private real estate companies most affected by the property market have begun to receive public bank support"Blood transfusions"While not all real estate companies, large real estate companies, including Canela, support the list.
However, compared with the billions of debt market of real estate enterprises, the injection of funds will not be an easy thing, or to distinguish, as Dong Jianguo, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said a few days ago, real estate enterprises go bankrupt, lose the ability to operate, should be in accordance with the legal market method for survival of the fittest. The purpose of this is to make up for the debt risk of real estate enterprises, which will take a certain amount of time, and some high-quality real estate enterprises will return to the normal track of activities with the support of others, and the other part will either be restructured through mergers and acquisitions, or through complete closure. This process of compensating for risk, and the process that determines whether the real estate market recovers or repeats the mistakes of the past, takes a certain amount of time.
5) The last paragraph of the article is basically the same as the last paragraph of the article published on December 15. First, there is still a lot of room for improvement in urbanizationSecond, although the per capita housing area is 41 square meters, it is dominated by small and medium-sized units, indicating that there is still a lot of room for improvementThird, the property market from the incremental market to the stock market, can also drive the development of decoration, furniture, home appliances and other aspects of the industrial chain, along with the front, will still play a positive role in the development of China's economy, which actually confirms the importance of the real estate industry for economic development. Playing a positive role, this actually confirms the important position and role of the real estate industry in economic development.
From the statement on the property market again, we can basically see the official attitude towards the property market at this stage and next year: it is now adjusting, and we have confidence in the future development of real estate!After reading the report, and then looking at the adjustment of China's real estate industry, the ominous premonition is getting stronger and stronger.
First of all, we must wait for the property market to stabilize and pick up. The purpose of introducing so many policies to optimize the property market is to stabilize the current market, which can no longer fall and stabilize, and of course also looks forward to heating up, the general logic is like this. If a policy does not work, a number of policies will be introduced, a number of policy effects will be released, and a batch of policies will be added until the market really stabilizes, and the goal will not be achieved. Now, the biggest obstacle to the stabilization and recovery of the property market is not the amount of funds of real estate companies, the current decision-making level has decided to meet the demands of real estate companies to invest funds, so that real estate enterprises, this problem will be solved, and the measures of real estate companies to cash in will gradually converge as the market begins to pick up.
With the liberalization of the land auction price limit and the higher implementation of the first grade, after obtaining the bank's capital investment in high-quality real estate enterprises, and then re-replenishing the plots, the land market has also begun to heat up, and the land market at the end of the year has already had such signs. The buyers saw that the city's primary transactions began to be active, and some wait-and-see people gradually entered the market, and a large number of second-hand ** that were previously listed were withdrawn due to the market expectation of heating up, and the property market transaction volume expanded rapidly under the role of all parties.
The foundation for the recovery of the property market is obviously not solid, how to let the economic environment support the recovery of the property market?Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, recently publicly stated that as the efficacy of the epidemic subsides, under the superposition of various economic policies, consumption, investment and external demand will further improve, and China's economic growth is expected to reach 6% next year. If, as he said, the real estate market regains its prominence.
Secondly, the differentiation trend of second-hand housing is becoming more and more obvious. The rapid growth of the transaction volume of second-hand homes mentioned above has even offset the decline in the transaction volume of new homesThe real situation is that compared with the high point in 2021, most of the second-hand houses have declined significantly, and the original 1 million houses can now reach 500,000, maybe not yet, the original 5 million houses have now risen to 3 million, and there are still a lot of the same type left. Therefore, the direct reason for the large transaction volume of second-hand houses is that the buyer closes the transaction at a low price.
However, the legislators forgot another issue: where there are buyers, there are sellers, and sellers are trying in every possible way to sell off old buildings, including some high-rise units. Why?This reminds me of two other pieces of information: one is that the former chief economist of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said not long ago that China's 20-year-old old residential areas have shown a trend of damage and decay, and there is a big gap with Japan in terms of structural quality, waterproofing, sound insulation, and heat insulation.
Another piece of information is that Zhongtai ** recently released a report, according to this report, although our house is designed according to the 70-year life cycle, but the renewal speed of Chinese houses is relatively fast (that is, it must be fast, high turnover), the actual life cycle is relatively short, and the annual depreciation range is 12%-1.8%, while the scale of depreciation in the relevant calculation model for calculating the neutral year of depreciation reached 56.2 billion square meters. What kind of concept is this?According to the current annual transaction scale of new houses in China, 10-1.1 billion square meters, accounting for almost half of the volume. Therefore, you can understand why so many people take out their second-hand houses to sell: the proportion of real cash is not high, and more and more people want to sell their old houses and replace them with new ones.
Fundamentally, this also confirms what I said earlier, if you want to maintain and increase the value of your house as much as possible at the current level of construction, you should replace the house every 8-10 years. From here, we can also imagine that those old houses that have remained in our hands for a long time, if in the past we could count on urbanization to increase the overall value, then in the future, the improvement market will be the dominant one, and the quality of new houses will be higher and higher, widening the gap between new houses and new houses. The same is true for second-hand houses, but different houses are also a law of nature.