The year 2023 has passed like this, today is New Year's Day, the circle of friends is in a joyful atmosphere, even the pig price is rare to join in the fun, a little red emerges from the green bushes, although it is meaningless, but it is always better than nothing.
Will pig prices be ** in 2024?The answer is yes!This year, it will start in April and May as soon as possible, and in July or August as it will be slow, and it will be launched after all. But pig prices have been losing money for too long, too longThere is an indisputable fact that even if the pig price is the best, it is difficult to make up for the losses in the early stage, and if you want to completely turn over, it seems that there is still no time to know in that distant future.
In fact, whether we admit it or not, this is already a fact, since 2018, in the past five years, pig prices have been in this situationEvery time it is hard to support, looking forward to the stars and the moon and looking forward to the price increase, but once the price increase starts, it is often a rapid push up and then a rapid **, and the money earned from the time of the price increase is not enough to make up for our long loss period.
So who made the money?On the surface, it was taken away in advance by the group company through the pig price ** period homeopathic pressure fence to quickly push up the pig price after the big fat smashed the marketAnd this part of the profit should have been the ordinary farmers who were suffering from the loss period, but how could ordinary farmers compete with the capital?Whether it is the prediction of ** or the financial strength, they can't grab their group capital, and the ending is naturally harvested round by round.
I look forward to the price increase every day, but I can't understand itThe so-called price increase is nothing more than the end of a round of harvesting, and it will soon have to enter the next round of harvesting cycleIt has always been that the time for the price increase is short, and the time for the price drop is longer and longer, and ordinary farmers are deeply trapped in it and cannot extricate themselves.
From a material point of view, the above-mentioned superficial profits,In fact, in the end, it was transformed into a loss period of the bottom cost up, the group company is getting bigger and bigger, and more and more pig farms are transformed into the group company, which further boosts the growth of the group companyAt the same time, the group company can borrow more and more money, the debt ratio is getting higher and higher, who can not withstand the first who will withdraw, other group companies like hungry wolves to pounce on his market share, the final result is that the pig breeding industry is becoming more and more intensive, the head of the enterprise is getting bigger and bigger, and finally become the industry unicorn.
So for us ordinary farmers, how should we deal with the current situation?I think it should be understood from the following three points:
Give up the unrealistic psychology of looking forward to the rise, and also give up the obsession of being able to turn over after **Reduce our pig inventory, wait for the next **arrival,** do not impulsively replenish the inventory after the arrival, see the situation clearly, and timely reverse high-level arbitrage to leave the market,There are two important points in this step, one is to reduce the stock as soon as possible, and the other is to cash out at a high level. Only when the thinking reaches this realm, can it have the possibility of getting out this time, otherwise you will really not be able to get out next time.
Temporarily avoid the expansion period of the group company, this stage belongs to the stage of immortal fighting, we mortals don't want to join in the fun, we can stand in line, and we will also support them. In fact, speaking of this stage is the best period for us to raise the group company, there is a seven or eight hundred pigs in the herd, biosecurity facilities are changed, the tower material line is installed, you can transform the breeding, and so on after a few years the group company has completed the rapid expansion period of the horse race, it is really not a pig farm of any size, at that time it must be more than 2,000 heads, negative pressure ventilation tower material line is readily available to him to raise, but also to assess the geographical environment, the layout of the barn, that period is not a casual pig farm can be raised by the group company。
3: Now eliminate the ** of a sow, you can also buy a gilt, thisIt is also the last window period of our pig cycle, and then go down, a sow can not be exchanged for a reserve, while the sows are still strong, why not take advantage of the trend to eliminate the sow and put the money in the pocket?In the future, whether you want to raise yourself or on your behalf, you can be flexible and flexible, so why bother to support it during this loss period?Can't we always look at the current situation with the previous experience, thinking that if we insist on persisting, the price will rise, and if the price increases, we will be able to turn overIf the price rises, it can only return a mouthful of blood, and it is still a big unknown whether the price can be raised, and the price will not be increased for another yearLet's just have three melons and two dates, and we don't lose money at all, what do we do to fight with the group company?
And finally:
He who can change himself is God
Trying to change others is a neurosis
Stop-loss is wisdom
On January 1, 2024, I felt it, wrote an essay, and if I don't agree with the viewpoint, then think I'm watching fantasy**.
Well, that's all for today, I'm Brother Zhu, and I communicate with you all kinds of information about the pig breeding industry, don't sell veterinary drugs, don't market, and make friends with your breeding peers.