Wang Shi once again ** the future trend of China's real estate, the probability is as he said
In China, there are not many people who can accurately ** the trend of China's property market, and Vanke's Wang Shi is one of them. As early as 2018, when the property market was in a boom cycle, Wang Shi made a rare proposal at Vanke's annual meeting"Live, live, live, live"slogan. Since then, Vanke has begun to control the scale of investment and maintain abundant liquidity. From today's point of view, the heads of real estate companies who were committed to blind debt expansion were not having a good time.
Today, Wang Shi has long since retired, but after retirement, he still pays attention to the national real estate market. As for the future trend of China's real estate industry, Wang Shi compared it with the Japanese real estate bubble in the 90s of the last century, and once again ** the future trend of the real estate industry. Many industry experts said after listening to Wang Shi's ** that if there is no collapse, Wang Shi's ** is likely to be right again. Let's take a look:
First of all, the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble gave Wang Shi a lot of inspiration. When Japan's real estate bubble burst, real estate developers were also eager to expand their land holdings, and residents also took the opportunity to invest in buying houses, and the whole society believed in housing prices"It only goes up, not down"The myth. And this was precisely the beginning of the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan.
Therefore, Wang Shi chose to control the scale of investment in 2018, when the domestic property market was extremely prosperous, to ensure that the company had sufficient liquidity, and no longer competed with other real estate companies to see who was the first. Facts have proved that Wang Shi's previous views on the property market were correct. Today, many aggressive real estate companies are mired in debt crises and are unable to extricate themselves.
Secondly, the current round of property market adjustment cycle will reach 3-5 years. There are two main bases: First, China's housing prices have been continuously for more than 20 years since the first round of housing reform in 1998 to the first half of 2021, during which they have basically not experienced a decent adjustment cycle. Therefore, once a new round of adjustment cycle is found, I am afraid that it will not be able to stop at all without three or five years.
Second, now Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden and other large real estate companies are concentrated mining, there will be a few in the future, to deal with the debt crisis and unfinished buildings left by these real estate companies, it will take at least 3-5 years or even longer.
Third, there will be a major reshuffle in the real estate industry in the future. Real estate companies that used to blindly borrow to acquire land for expansion are likely to be eliminated due to debt defaults in the future. The rest is only real estate companies with low debt ratios and sufficient liquidity to survive and survive for a long time. At the same time, the entire real estate industry will begin to reduce the debt ratio and control the scale of investment, when the demand for land purchase by real estate enterprises will decrease, and the investment area for building houses will shrink.
Fourth, Wang Shi is full of confidence in the future of the real estate market. In Wang Shi's view, when the Bank of Japan took the initiative to puncture the real estate bubble by raising interest rates continuously, it was the first time that China's real estate market became a policy market. China's real estate market is also a policy market. ** Favorable policies can be continuously introduced in the property market to encourage people to buy houses, which can delay the process of bursting the national property market bubble, and transform time into space, so that the national property market can achieve a soft landing, and minimize the damage of the property market bubble to the economy.
As early as 2018, during the most prosperous period of the national property market, Vanke proposed"Live, live, live, live"slogan. Looking back now, Wang Shi's approach at that time was wise. As for the future trend of real estate, Wang Shi recently expressed his opinion: in his opinion, this round of real estate industry adjustment has passed at least 3 to 5 years. At the same time, real estate companies are likely to restructure in the coming years. Wang Shi is also full of confidence in the future real estate market, he believes that there will be no crisis like Japan in China, and the real estate market will gradually realize in the future"Soft landing"。