The dispute between Russia and Japan over the islands has always been a hot topic of concern to the outside world. The South Kuril Islands, which are under Russia's de facto control, have always been at odds with Japan, and the two sides have been fighting over this territory. Although Japan hopes to resolve the issue through negotiations, progress has been slow due to a number of factors. Recently, with Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, Japan** has begun to take a tougher stance. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly stressed that the "four northern islands" are Japanese territory and has even provided assistance to Ukraine. This attitude is clearly a provocation for Russia, which has always been strong.
Against this backdrop, Russia's announcement that it would withdraw from the treaty with Japan on the reduction of nuclear cooperation six months ahead of schedule has attracted international attention. The Russian side said that Japan's continuous implementation of anti-Russian policies, the adoption of sanctions, and the intensification of military activities in the Far East have endangered Russia's best interests. The reason why Japan dares to act in this way is partly due to the impact of the situation in Ukraine, and on the other hand, because Japan's military deployment in this region is relatively more complete. This series of events will further affect Russian-Japanese relations and arouse global concerns about the situation in the region.
The South Kuril Islands have always been a hot issue between Japan and Russia, especially in terms of the balance of power in the air and at sea. Russia's 11th Air Force is mainly based in Khabarovsk, and has a small number of fourth-generation and a half fighters such as the Su-35 and Su-30 that can confront Japan, as well as a small number of Su-34 fighters. In contrast, Japan's geographical proximity to the South Kuril Islands allows it to amass air power more quickly. In terms of air power, Russia is at an absolute disadvantage, and needs to use more than 60 fourth-generation aircraft against 293 fourth-generation aircraft and 27 fifth-generation aircraft of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force.
In terms of sea power, Russia's four major fleets are scattered in different regions, and the Pacific Fleet is the only one that can directly participate in the affairs of the South Kuril Islands. Although the Pacific Fleet has excellent anti-ship and anti-submarine capabilities, its air defense capabilities are low and it lacks advanced ships. In contrast, Japan has two "Izumo-class" light aircraft carriers and two "Hyuga"-class *** aircraft carriers, and has a strong maritime power. However, Japan ignores a key reality, that Russia is a nuclear power. Russia recently announced its withdrawal from the treaty on nuclear cooperation reduction, sending a strong signal to Japan.
In addition, Russia's unequivocal refusal to participate in the Osaka-Kansai World Expo in Japan in 2025 shows Russia's dissatisfaction with Japan. A stalemate between the two sides over the South Kuril Islands could lead to further tensions between Japan and Russia. Therefore, Japan needs to be cautious in dealing with the issue of the South Kuril Islands to avoid irreversible consequences.