Big material research, chief analyst: Deng Chaoming, the owner of the pan-home furnishing business internal reference, the manager's daily reading, the business staff of the front-line elite, to create an influential large home construction and decoration research institution, third-party evaluation and communication center.
Standing on the threshold of the end of 2023 and looking back at the changes in the past year will help us see where 2024 is headed.
In particular, summarizing the business actions and achievements of key enterprises in the past year will help more people gain experience and knowledge and hone their ability to attack.
How do we see the overall development of the home furnishing industry in 2023?In a voice that is not optimistic, are there any trends and highlights that represent the future?
A few days ago, in an interview with the "Daily Economic News", Deng Chaoming, chief analyst of Dazai Research, summarized the situation of the home furnishing industry in 2023 and made an analysis and prediction of the trend in 2024.
In this article, the research of large materials is mainly aboutThe market situation in 2023 was specially sorted out, and eight points of summary were extracted, and at least eight new business highlights were discovered.
1. Look at the changes from the macro data of the domestic market.
Let's first look at multiple sets of data in the first 11 months of 2023, including the sales of building materials and home furnishing stores, the total retail sales of furniture, the total retail sales of building and decoration materials, and the total revenue and profit of the furniture manufacturing industry.
The National Bureau of Statistics has two sets of important data, one is:Changes in total retail sales
In the first 11 months of 2023, the total retail sales of furniture were 137.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%。In terms of construction and decoration materials, the total retail sales were 141.7 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year8%。
To put it simply, furniture retail has achieved growth, and there has been a relatively large decline in building materials, which may be related to the decrease in hard decoration.
The second isRevenue and profit of furniture manufacturing enterprises.
In the furniture manufacturing industry in the first 11 months of 2023, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5796600 million yuan, down 55%。Operating costs 4768800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67%。The total profit is 3015, down 6 percent year-on-year3%。
The information reflected is that the revenue of manufacturing enterprises above the scale has declined, down 55 percentage points, which is still a lot. Profits also declined. However, the cost has been controlled, which may indicate that the cost reduction has had a certain effect.
The China Building Materials Circulation Association has a set of important data, that is, the situation of home furnishing stores.
In the first 11 months of 2023, the cumulative sales of home building materials stores on the scale will be 14,2145.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of **3050%。
In most cases, sales in stores are dominated by retail. The increase in total sales in home furnishing stores may mean that the retail market is still growing.
Based on the above data, we can see that in the domestic market, the total revenue has declined, or it is affected by bulk purchases such as real estate hardcover. ButThe retail space is still very large, and the growth is relatively tenacious
Let's look at the exit situation.
According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, the total export value of furniture and its parts was 4032200 million yuan, down 1 year-on-year7%。
The export volume of ceramic products was 17.24 million tons, and the total export value was 1644300 million yuan, down 11 percent year-on-year5%。
The total export value of lamps, lighting fixtures and their parts was 2676900 million yuan, down 01%, basically flat.
The export volume of household appliances was 33871680,000 units, with a total export value of 5,650700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of **96%
Overall,The export of furniture and building materials products is declining, especially the decline of ceramic products is more obvious. Furniture has also been affected. The lighting class is relatively stable.
In this situation, there is no doubt that some foreign trade enterprises will encounter a decline in business. Coupled with the Matthew effect in the field of foreign trade, some enterprises with relatively insufficient competitive advantages are expected to decline significantly.
Some new categories continued to grow.
From the perspective of the revenue composition of some enterprises, some new categories continue to rise and achieve high growth, such as smart mattresses, functional sofas, whole home customization, smart toilets, etc.
However, bulk procurement channels and a variety of traditional furniture and building materials categories have declined, and the market has shown more complex stratification and differentiation.
Specific to the enterprise,Some of the new businesses incubated by the company have grownFor example, the wooden door business of custom home furnishing companies such as Sophia, Gold Kitchen Cabinet, and Zhibang Home Furnishing has achieved a relatively good year-on-year growth.
The market atmosphere is not optimistic.
The market is sluggish, the competitive pressure is high, and the orders are decreasing, and this kind of evaluation has become a common phenomenon in the large home furnishing industry in 2023.
It can be said that the negative sentiment is relatively strong, even if the performance of some enterprises and practitioners remains stable or even growsThe performance is still cautious, the number of new investments and new stores has decreased, and the wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong.
Even some very well-known listed home furnishing companies have publicly stated that they are cautious about the performance in 2023 and will do their best to achieve the annual operating income target. Some companies believe that the market has not improved significantly, and the overall feeling is still relatively weak.
Other companies believe that the upgrade of the consumer side is not obvious, but the downgrade has expanded, and a larger sales volume is needed to achieve the same sales in previous years.
Competition has intensified, but the confidence of first- and second-tier manufacturers is still very strong.
From the perspective of competition, the first and second echelon enterprises generally show a trend of forging ahead, maintaining the iteration of new products, taking the initiative to acquire customers, expanding the channel network, and developing new online and offline traffic resources.
However, most of the tracks have become more volatile, and enterprises need to invest more resources in products, channels, customer acquisition, terminals and other links, and take more effective measures to achieve year-on-year results.
From the perspective of business changes, the importance of enterprises to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and profit margins has increased again. Listed home furnishing companies have generally increased their efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and some companies have successfully achieved year-on-year growth in profit margins.
New explorations are continuous, breaking the traditional framework and seeking opportunities for the future.
What brings more highlights to the industry is that many home furnishing powerhouses will still carry out strong explorations in 2023, and it is expected that hundreds of companies will continue to lay out and create new formats, new models, new channels, new products and other new phenomena, which are expected to have a greater and greater impact on the industry pattern.
For example,Fusen Tianfu live portLaunched, as a global commercial complex under Fusenmei, it has taken a new path. The layout of the live broadcast port + headquarters port, industrial operation area + scene business area + interactive experience area is not only different from the previous home shopping malls, but also different from the current mainstream shopping centers, and builds a new generation of commercial complexes for the future.
Liweijia and Furen Group have created a mellow space living hall, which integrates customized home furnishing, living home furnishing, home plate and auxiliary materials. Mengtian continued to promote the implementation of the woodwork strategy, upgrading from "high-end decoration, using Mengtian wooden door" to "high-end decoration, using Mengtian wood" to achieve comprehensive change.
There are also the wisdom store format of the pearl in the palm of the hand, the water-painted wooden cabinet wall door system of Baidusheng, the new cooperation model of Zhihuashi's home decoration channel, the business and functional sofa for the elderly of Lin's Home Furnishing, the balcony space customization of Fashilong, the full-bathroom space solution provider of Hengjie Sanitary Ware, the free choice mode of Shangpin Home Delivery, and the magic curtain light store of Dieyi, etc., constitute the blueprint for the exploration of the home furnishing industry.
A variety of dynamics drive the home furnishing industry forward.
It cannot be ignored that even though the home furnishing industry is facing many challenges, there are still strong internal and external driving forces that push us forward and climb upward.
Specifically, it is reflected in at least three aspects.
One,The demand of the stock market is gradually released
Some cities even show a prosperous situation, including urban renewal, renovation of old communities, renovation and decoration of old houses, decoration and renovation after second-hand housing transactions, etc., which provide a broad stage for home decoration consumption and lay a solid foundation for growth.
Second,Policy assistance
From ** to some provinces and cities, industrial and consumption policy support has been introduced, and some local ** and circulation platforms have issued consumption vouchers, which not only further improves the best environment required for consumption, but more importantly, promotes the development of home furnishing enterprises and the enhancement of consumer confidence in a way that can be seen and touched.
Thirdly,The all-out efforts of market players.
The first and second echelon brands have made efforts to attract customer attention and promote home consumption through various measures such as products, delivery, service, design, and marketing, including price reduction without quality reduction, free design, home maintenance, etc., which has injected impetus into the market to a certain extent.
Factors restraining the growth of the home furnishing industry.
In any market, there are both promoting forces and constraints. The home furnishing industry is also facing a variety of constraints, and in 2023, it will be reflected in at least three aspects.
One,The shock of the real estate market.
Real estate development investment, new house sales area and other related data have generally appeared in the best situation, impacting the bulk procurement business that can be driven by the construction of new houses and the delivery of hardcover houses, and also affecting the home consumption demand that can be brought by the renovation of hardcover houses and the decoration of rough houses.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%。Among them, the very important residential sector, with an investment of 7,885.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 90%。In the first 11 months, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 73%。
Second,The impact of thunderstorms on real estate enterprises.
Affected by the thunderstorm of some real estate companies, there are more unfinished buildings in the city, which not only impacts the bulk procurement demand brought by fine decoration, but also leads to the demand for decoration and furniture and building materials retail, which in turn damages the growth of the entire home furnishing industry.
Thirdly,, poor expectations for future revenues.
The group of uncertain views on future income changes has expanded, and they tend to be conservative in home decoration and brand selection, which is manifested in the impact on the amount of secondary decoration and the reduction of customer order value, which also affects the growth of the home furnishing industry.
Looking at 2023, there are still a lot of new trends and new highlights in the big home furnishing industry.
According to the combing of the big material research,There are at least eight new things to see and trend, which is worthy of our attention and may continue to affect the home furnishing market in 2024.
The big home strategy continues the momentum of previous yearsIn terms of the whole home, the integration of doors and wall cabinets, and the customization of the top wall, more solutions and successful cases have been given.
The overall home model is more perfect, including the whole family customization, door and wall cabinet integration and other models, products and delivery are more mature, and consumer recognition continues to improve.
3. In terms of productsIntelligent, ergonomic application, trendy aesthetics, there are new achievements, such as smart toilets, smart mattresses, electric beds, etc., all have better experience of products.
The empowerment of manufacturers and platforms for dealers has been improved, the phenomenon of training + active marketing assistance + escort + online drainage and dispatch has increased.
Online traffic operations have become a climate, generally enter the core marketing plan of the first and second echelon brands.
Among them, live streaming + grass drainage has become a new channel with strong growth in the home furnishing industry, and content planting on platforms such as Xiaohongshu, Meituan Dianping, **hao, and Douyin has become extremely common.
The closed-loop of online and offline operations is more matureTowards systematic operations, even dealers, who have the conditions, are also implementing online and offline operations.
Outfit wins popularityThe corresponding installation enterprise channel has entered the era of large-scale development, and hundreds of well-known brands continue to promote and improve the operation plan of the installation enterprise channel.
Suitable for the elderly, new solutions for old stock houses, smart home, light and high-end, as well as product solutions for specific groups, the growth potential is being unleashed.
For a more comprehensive summary, please refer to the "2023 Summary Report of the Home Furnishing Industry" released in the later stage of Dacai Research.