**Compared with the previous December Politburo meeting, what content deserves investors' attention?The meeting can be seen as setting the tone for next year's economic work, and what will be the impact on the market?
Interpretation:
Following the Politburo meeting in December, the first economic work conference deployed next year's work plan, strengthened the work of "changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality, and increasing the efficiency", and the overall policy was set positively. Compared with the same period last year, the meeting set the tone of "stability first", and emphasized "progress", which means that the demand for future economic growth has become stronger. Second, increase the "first establish and then break", emphasizing that scientific and technological innovation, the resilience and security of the industrial chain are still the focus of work, industrial transformation and upgrading, and the replacement of new and old economic momentum requires stability.
In terms of segmentation, the active fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy cooperate with each other, the fiscal policy is "moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency", and the monetary policy is "flexible, moderate, precise and effective", emphasizing structure and efficiency, expanding the scope of use of special bond capital, helping the investment side to drive economic growth, driving residents' income, and building the development of economic internal circulation. Secondly, this meeting emphasized the consistency of macro policy orientation, not only the top-level policies are actively setting the tone, but the subsequent policies in industry, employment, science and technology are expected to maintain a positive tone. In particular, the digital economy, advanced biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy were highlighted. In terms of the domestic demand market, the reform of state-owned enterprises has been deepened, the reform of the fiscal, taxation and financial systems has been improved, and the cooperation and investment and financing mechanisms with social capital have been improved, which have played a leading role in the development of state-owned enterprises and revitalized the vitality of capital and the real economy. At the same time, in the future, bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and electronic products will be boosted, and the policy of stabilizing consumption is expected to continue, and the steady improvement of the demand side will accelerate the efficiency of passive destocking of industrial inventory. Therefore, the expansion of domestic demand next year will revolve around a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
From the perspective of the external environment, the cooling of employment in the U.S. service industry indicates a structural recession, but the nominal purchasing power of residents is difficult to decline in the short term after the wage increase, which means that the real purchasing power of goods will increase. The destocking of goods in the United States has lasted more than 1 year, and the sales of many cycles in the past have been ahead of the inventory year-on-year by about 4 months, and now the year-on-year sales have bottomed out in June, indicating that the replenishment of commodity inventory is about to begin. China's exports turned positive year-on-year in November, and exports to the United States turned positive to 735%。South Korea, the more sensitive "canary", has turned positive year-on-year exports for two consecutive months, and the growth of exports to the United States in November expanded sharply to 247%, in addition, China's raw material imports have increased significantly, which has become a leading signal for the improvement of the production side, and it is believed that the economic environment will continue to improve due to the effect of external inventory replenishment.
In summary, the first economic work conference has set a positive tone for economic work, with fiscal proactivity, monetary stability and multi-faceted policy coordination and cooperation, forming a joint force around promoting high-quality development. Looking to the future, with internal technological innovation leading industrial upgrading, consumption potential stimulated to form a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment, and external commodity replenishment demand about to start, it is believed that the quality of China's economic development will be further advanced in 2024, which will help China's assets to a higher level.
This article only records the views and experiences of Yang Boguang (license number: S0340619060008), and does not represent the position of the institution he works for. The views and statements published do not constitute investment advice to any person or any organization and should not be relied upon as a substitute for investors' own independent judgment. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.