In a blink of an eye, the New Year is about to begin, and it is said that there is no banquet without wine, and it is called the New Year only when there is wine. Every Chinese New Year, the Spring Festival dinner is inevitably accompanied by wine, "I did you at will" "Drink pleasantly, drink and hurt your body!"."Feeling deep and stuffy" is a phrase that is often heard at the wine table, but what is the real situation?
As early as 1987, the International Cancer Society (IARC) classified alcohol as a Group I carcinogen. So far, alcohol has been shown to have a causal relationship with cancers of the upper respiratory tract, digestive tract (mouth, pharynx, larynx, esophagus), colon, rectum, liver, and breast. On July 13, 2021, Harriet Rumgay et al. from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a study titled "Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study" in Lancet Oncology (IF=54)** In addition, Li Liming from the School of Public Health and Chen Zhengming from the University of Oxford jointly published a paper entitled "Conventional and Genetic Evidence on Alcohol and Vascular Disease Aetiology: A" in the top international medical journal Lancet (IF=203)** prospective study of 500 000 men and women in China".Studies** have shown that blood pressure and stroke risk increase as alcohol consumption increases evenly.
But in December 2023,University of Oxfordiona y millwoodteam and Peking University researchersOn the basis of these, the Lancet sub-journal Public Health further excavated the adverse effects of alcohol consumption on ChineseHowever, two different results were obtained.
From the perspective of cohort studies, moderate alcohol consumption is favorable, and the relationship between alcohol consumption and health has a J-shaped curve. Mendelian randomization analysis showed a positive linear relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of mortality from multiple diseases. 
**First analysis result: Large cohort study analysis
A total of 512724 Chinese adults aged 30-79 years participated in the study, including 210205 males and 302519 females, and the participants were divided into four categories: current drinkers (who drank most weeks in the past year), non-drinkers (who did not drink alcohol in the past year and did not drink most of the week), occasional drinkers (who drank occasionally and most weeks in the past year), and former drinkers (who drank occasionally or almost nothing in the past year, but who had previously drunk regularly). At the same time, according to the frequency of drinking, the amount of alcohol intake, and the type of alcohol, the current drinkers are further subdivided: 140g Follow-up data for all participants. Out of a total of more than 500,000 people, 56,550 deaths (31,956 males and 24,594 females) were recorded. The leading causes of death are cardiovascular disease and cancer, which together account for 725%。In addition, 16 deaths were due to respiratory diseases and non-medical causes1%。 In the study, about 2% of the women currently consume alcohol and have very low alcohol intake, and although observational analyses assess the low power of the association of alcohol intake with the risk of death, genetic evidence suggests that genetic variants have little or no effect on the risk of death and disease-specific death, statesThe additional risk of death in men is due to alcohol and is not affected by the pleiotropy of the above genotypes。The results showed that after adjusting for multiple risk factors such as age, education, and household income, a J-shaped or U-shaped association was found between self-reported alcohol consumption and the risk of death from major diseases in men. But overall, however, the risk of death increases with alcohol intake. Specifically,When the weekly alcohol intake increases100g, male participants had an increased risk of all-cause mortalityThe risk of death due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, liver disease, other medical causes, and non-medical causes increased by 15% and 15%, respectively. What does that mean?That is to say,The J-shaped or U-shaped association means that occasional alcohol consumption may be advantageous at the moment, compared to no alcohol consumption or alcohol consumption in the past, but overall, heavy drinking is disadvantageous as alcohol consumption increases! Figure: Association between alcohol consumption and mortality risk of different diseases in men. **Second analysis result: Mendelian randomization analysis Based on traditional analysis methods, we will find that there is a J-shaped or U-shaped association between alcohol consumption and the risk of disease death, which seems to verify the "truth" that moderate alcohol consumption is beneficial to physical and mental health. However, when using Mendelian randomization analysis, we found that:Linear growth replaces the originaljtype orutype association。That is to say,The risk of all-cause and multi-morbidity mortality increases linearly with increasing alcohol intake. Figure: Relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed and the risk of disease mortality among current drinkers. Specifically, for every 100g of alcohol consumed per week, male participants had a 15% higher risk of death from cardiovascular disease, a 31% higher risk of death from liver disease, and a 7% higher risk of all-cause death. Therefore, this large prospective cohort study of the Chinese population showed a sexually increased relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality risk, possibly not J or U. In other words,Moderate alcohol consumption may not have positive health effects and will only increase the risk of premature death Postscript: In terms of results, there is a contradiction between the results of cohort studies and Mendelian randomization analysis. Which do you believe? I feel that although Mendelian randomization claims to be more credible, its econometric response curve is chaotic and not very linear;But the cohort study curve is really J-shaped or U-shaped. I support the results of the cohort study, which is that occasional alcohol consumption is acceptable Finally, I wanted to say something about the author, but I won't say it. More about the clinical ** model: The two-day winter class of learning R language to build clinical ** models is here, welcome to sign up!
