In recent years, China-Philippines relations have fallen into the worst moment in recent years. Since February this year, the Philippines has repeatedly carried out provocations against China in the South China Sea and strengthened military cooperation with the United States, which has continued to escalate the situation in the region. In particular, the Philippines' illegal intrusion into the waters near China's Ren'ai Jiao in August this year intensifiedDisputes in the South China SeaThe tension. China has made clear its solemn position to the Philippines through multiple levels and channels, but the Philippines has ignored China's sincerity and goodwill, and continues to create incidents in the waters near China's islands and reefs, and slander and smear China. Relations between the two sides deteriorated furtherPhilippines**MarcosEven in the talkThe situation in the South China SeaHe said that he had signed a trilateral agreement with the United States and Japan to jointly address the "China challenge", indicating that the Philippines would join forces with foreign forces to resolve the South China Sea issue and conduct more energy exploration in the South China Sea. The Chinese side issued a clear warning in this regard, saying that if the Philippine side continues to collude with external forces, China will respond resolutely.
However,Philippines**MarcosThe strategy of collusion with foreign forces in the Philippines has not been substantially helped, coupled with the outbreak of internal strife in the PhilippinesMarcos** Changed attitude towards China in a very short period of time. At a time of extreme tension between China and the Philippines, Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo took the initiative to give the Chinese counterpartWang YiThe phone call expressed the Philippines' willingness to strengthen communication between China and the Philippines and jointly manage differences. This move was not only unexpected, but also reasonable. The Philippines is aware that the United States, on which it relies the most, has failed to provide substantive support, and China, as the largest partner of the Philippines, will have serious consequences for the Philippines to antagonize it. Therefore, the Philippines' initiative to ease Sino-Philippine relations can be said to be an unexpected but reasonable move.
During the ** talks, the Chinese Foreign MinisterWang YiTwo heavy words were made to express no longer tolerance for continued provocations by the Philippines. First of all, he said, "China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads, and the Philippines must act cautiously when faced with the choice of which way to go." This sentence shows that China has reached a critical moment in the development of China-Philippines relations, and the Philippines must carefully consider its actions. Secondly,Wang YiHe also said that "if the Philippine side misjudges the situation, or even colludes with external forces with ill intentions, and continues to cause chaos, China will resolutely respond according to ***." This sentence warns the Philippines that if they continue to collude with foreign forces, China will take strong action to defend its own interests and show the Philippines the folly of their actions. This shows that China has no room for provocation by the Philippines, and if the Philippines misjudges the situation, China will take decisive action to respond.
The change in attitudes in the Philippines** can be attributed to two reasons. First of all, the Philippines has not been able to provide substantial help to the United States, which is the largest dependence of the Philippines. OriginallySouth China SeaThe active American aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson left due to the need to participate in multinational escort operationsSouth China Sea, this action indirectly tellsMarcosThe United States is not willing to engage in conflict with China in the South China Sea. Secondly, "infighting" broke out within the Philippines. Filipino deputy ** Sarah publicly slammedMarcos** With the main oppositionArmedThe peace talks of the "New People's Army" were supported by the Chief of the General Staff of the Philippine Army, General Brauner. WhileMarcosand his supporters, citing Sarah and Duterte's refusal to condemn China in the South China Sea, accused them of being "treasonous cowards" and making their contradictions public. As things stand, the struggle within the Philippines could erupt before the 2025 midterm elections, with the winner dictating the country's national strategy and the loser being ruled out entirely.
In short, China-Philippines relations have reached a crossroads, and China's continued provocations against the Philippines have reached their limits. The Philippines is aware that the United States, on which it depends, has failed to provide substantial support, and that China, as its largest partner, will have serious consequences for the Philippines to confront it. The Philippines took the initiative to call the Chinese side and expressed its willingness to ease Sino-Philippine relations. However, the Philippines still needs to act cautiously, and if they misjudge the situation and collude with external forces with bad intentions, China will respond resolutely. RightThe Philippine Foreign Secretary expressed his willingness to strengthen communication between China and the Philippines and jointly manage differences, and the two sides also agreed to promote a meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue. The change in attitudes in the Philippines** may be related to the incompetence of the United States and internal strife. The Philippines realizes that it cannot blindly rely on the United States and needs to adjust its relationship with China to safeguard its national interests. However, the struggle within the Philippines may have an impact on the Philippines' China policy, which requires the Philippines to consider carefully and make the right decisions.
The future of China-Philippines relations is fraught with uncertainty. Although there is a glimmer of hope for the change in attitudes of the Philippines, it is uncertain whether it will be able to truly ease Sino-Philippine relations. The Philippines** needs to take concrete action to improve relations with China, not just pay lip service. At the same time, the struggle within the Philippines is also a factor that cannot be ignored. If the Philippines** loses in the infighting, it could have a negative impact on the Philippines' China policy.
For China, it remains to be seen whether the Philippines will truly change its position. China needs to remain vigilant, and at the same time, it needs to give the Philippines some space and opportunities to adjust its policies. The two sides should resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, and develop bilateral relations through equality and mutual benefit. Only when the two sides respect each other and actively cooperate can China-Philippines relations develop steadily.
To sum up, China-Philippines relations are currently facing tremendous difficulties and challenges, but there are also some hopes. The change in attitudes in the Philippines gives us a glimmer of hope, but it remains to be seen whether it can actually change its position. China needs to remain vigilant, and at the same time, it needs to give the Philippines some space and opportunities to adjust its policies. The two sides should resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, and develop bilateral relations through equality and mutual benefit. Only when the two sides respect each other and actively cooperate can China-Philippines relations develop steadily.