Some time ago, a number of economic reports have disclosed the dynamics of the RMB exchange rate since OctoberIt is claimed that the offshore exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is in the best trendFor a time, such news caused quite a stir in the international market.
However, this perception seems to be biased.
First, let's review recent economic data.
Judging from the pure data, the renminbi did appear in ***, with a range of 329 points.
If we look at it broadly, from a weekly perspective, there have been four weeks in the last five weeks, and only one of them has 25 points, which is really worrying at first glance.
But based on these data alone, can we conclude that the renminbi is depreciating?
Actually,Focusing solely on the exchange rate movements of the renminbi against the US dollar is one-sided.
When we turn to the exchange rate of the currency, everything starts to look different.
Taking the RMB index as an example, this index not only did not have ** in the past quarter, but ** 29%。
In other wordsEven though the renminbi has a ** exchange rate against the US dollar, the renminbi has actually shown an appreciation trend relative to a range of other currencies.
Further, if we carefully compare the exchange rate movements between the renminbi and major currencies, we will find that among the top five currencies in the world, the renminbi has appreciated against the Japanese yen and the British pound, and against the euro and the US dollar**.
But the key here isThe appreciation against the yen and the pound has significantly exceeded the ** against the euro and the dollar.
Why is this happening?
The answer is not complicatedThis is related to China's recent economic performance and global economic layout
First of all, from the point of view of economic growth,Our country's GDP growth rate reached 49%, far more than the developed economies such as the United States, the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom.
At the same time,The pace of growth in infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment has also resumed its momentum.
In addition, although the amount of ** in our country has decreased slightly,However, the growth momentum of ASEAN and countries along the "Belt and Road" is strong.
Another positive sign of our economy is that dependence on real estate is gradually decreasing.
This is despite the fact that the contribution of real estate to GDP fell by 2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year7%，But the overall GDP is still **.
This means that the growth of our economy is more dependent on domestic demand and consumption, rather than over-reliance on real estate.
In fact, retail sales of consumer goods have accelerated for two consecutive months in September, and tourism revenue during the National Day holiday has surpassed the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
In general,China's economic layout is nearing completion, and it is expected that by 2024, the exchange rate of the renminbi will reverse.
This is mainly due to the steady growth of our economy and the balanced relationship with our major partners.
At the same time, the U.S. may face monetary policy adjustments in the near future, which will bring more room for the RMB.
In order to better understand this trend, we must recognize that changes in exchange rates are not just fluctuations in numbers, but also in the economic strategy and international relations of entire countries.
China's wise layout in this context enables it to gradually occupy a favorable position in the big chess game of the global economy.
*The future economic trend is always challenging, but the current data and trends show that both the economy and monetary policy of our country are moving in a positive direction.
I believe that in the near future, we will see a more stable and dynamic Chinese economy, and the status of the renminbi will further rise in the international monetary system.