At the inflection point!The yuan suddenly jumped by **300 points!SWIFT releases the latest data, de-dollarization may fail?
Since the beginning of the continuous **, the yuan suddenly appeared sharply this week**, and the lowest point even fell to 71764。This decline is more than 500 points, why is the trend of the yuan reversed?In fact, this may just be a necessary adjustment in the market. Judging from the trend of the past few weeks, the magnitude of the RMB has gradually decreased, indicating that the momentum is declining. This sudden ** may just be a normal adjustment after a large **. In addition, the renminbi reappeared at 176 points against the dollar at 16:15 p.m. last Thursday, indicating that there is uncertainty in the market's expectations for the Fed's last meeting of the year. Therefore, fluctuations in the exchange rate market are inevitable until the end of the Fed meeting.
The trend of the renminbi has been closely watched by the market. After several weeks of sudden, the renminbi suddenly slashed, plunging the market into a state of discussion. This sudden occurrence has undoubtedly aroused investors' worries and questions. However, we should not be too pessimistic because of temporary market fluctuations, and we should see that this is just a necessary adjustment of the market. Over the past few weeks, the renminbi's magnitude has gradually decreased, which may indicate that the momentum is gradually decaying. Therefore, this sharp ** is just a normal adjustment of the market after the large **, not a reversal of the trend of the RMB.
In addition, the movement of the yuan against the US dollar has been affected by the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve. There is some uncertainty about the Fed's decision, and although the market generally says that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again, there is still the possibility of surprises. In addition, the Fed's expectations for future interest rates can also affect the market's mentality, so fluctuations in the exchange rate market are inevitable until the end of the meeting. Although the exchange rate will be affected by many uncertainties in the short term, in the medium and long term, the trend of the two economies is the key factor that determines the exchange rate.
The trend of the renminbi is closely related to the development of China's economy. China's latest Caixin manufacturing and service PMI have both exceeded 50, showing that China's economy is improving. However, at present, China is in a period of economic shift, and the previous economic growth mainly relied on investment and investment, but with the sluggish foreign demand, the growth of the country has been limited. Therefore, the focus of China's economic development is gradually shifting to the growth of domestic demand. In this process of power transformation, fluctuations in the economy and exchange rates are unavoidable.
The trend of the renminbi is closely related to the development of China's economy. Recently released Caixin manufacturing and services PMI data show that China's economy is continuing to improve. The PMI of both the manufacturing and service industries exceeded the 50 expansion range, indicating that China's economy is moving in the direction of stable growth. However, it is at this time that China's economy is facing an important shift period.
In the past, the main driving force of China's economy came from investment and investment, especially infrastructure investment and real estate investment. However, with the sluggish foreign demand, especially the shrinking imports of Europe and the United States and other countries, ** is no longer the main driving force of China's economy. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic development, China must take the initiative to readjust its economic structure and increase the intensity of domestic demand. In this process of switching economic momentum, economic fluctuations and fluctuations in exchange rates are unavoidable.
Recently released SWIFT data shows that despite efforts to de-dollarize countries around the world, the share of US dollar payments is still significantly higher than it was six months ago. However, this does not mean that de-dollarization has failed. The data shows that the increase in the share of payments in the US dollar is mainly due to the decline in the share of other currencies, especially the euro. In addition, more and more countries are using their own currencies for bilateral**, and other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT does not count all monetary payments. Moreover, the coverage of CIPS, China's own payment system, is also expanding, and many of these payments do not go through the channel of the SWIFT system, so they are not counted. In addition, China is actively promoting the application of digital yuan and playing an increasingly important role in international payments. Therefore, there is still a long way to go on the road to de-dollarization, and the status of the renminbi in the international arena will gradually improve.
Recently released SWIFT data shows that although countries around the world are committed to de-dollarization, the proportion of US dollar payments is still higher than half a year ago. However, this does not mean that de-dollarization has failed. The data shows that the increase in the share of the US dollar is mainly due to the decline in the share of other currencies, especially the euro. The euro once approached the dollar and was relatively high, but now it is only 2336%。In addition, more and more countries are opting for local currency settlements on a bilateral basis**, and other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT only counts partial currency payments, and does not fully reflect the process of de-dollarization.
It is worth noting that the coverage of China's own payment system CIPS is also expanding, and many of these payments do not go through the channel of the SWIFT system, so they are not counted. In addition, China is actively promoting the application scenarios of digital yuan, and the development of digital yuan will surely promote the use of yuan in international payment. Therefore, although there is a long way to go for de-dollarization, with the continuous development of China's payment system and the promotion and application of digital yuan, the status of the renminbi on the international stage will gradually improve, and the process of de-dollarization will continue.
The suddenness of the renminbi has attracted widespread attention and discussion in the market. However, we should not be overly pessimistic about short-term volatility and should look at the direction of the RMB from a long-term perspective. The trend of the renminbi is affected by a variety of factors, including fluctuations in international markets, adjustments in the economic structure, and changes in the global payment system. Although the RMB may be affected by some uncertain factors in the short term, in the medium and long term, the key factor determining the trend of the RMB is the development of China's economy. At present, China's economy is facing an important shift period, from dependence and investment-driven to domestic demand growth, which will lead to economic fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations, but also lay the foundation for our economic restructuring and sustainable development.
In addition, despite efforts to de-dollarize around the world, the share of payments in the US dollar still occupies a high position in the SWIFT data. However, this does not mean that de-dollarization has failed. The data shows that the increase in the share of the US dollar is mainly due to the decline in the share of other currencies, especially the euro. In addition, more and more countries are using their own currencies for bilateral**, and other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT does not count all monetary payments. The coverage of China's own payment system, CIPS, is expanding, and the application of digital yuan is also being promoted, which will promote the use of RMB in the international environment.
To sum up, in the short term, the trend of the RMB may be affected by some uncertain factors, but in the medium and long term, the development of China's economy will be the key factor that determines the trend of the RMB. At the same time, although de-dollarization may face some challenges, with the continuous improvement of China's payment system and the promotion and application of digital yuan, the status of the yuan in the international arena will gradually improve. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the future of the RMB.
Note: The above views are the author's personal views only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors are advised to make their own judgment and decision-making for reference only. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.