(Report produced by Author: League of Nations**, Gordon, Xiong Jun).
Huawei and new forces are expected to accelerate intelligence. Since the beginning of this year, in the intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit links, Huawei and new forces have carried out key layouts to promote the upgrading of vehicle configuration. In the field of intelligent driving, Huawei and Xpeng have launched models that can realize the NOA (N**igate on Autopilot) function, promoting the upgrade of intelligent driving from L2 to L3With the gradual launch of new products such as light field screens, canopy projections, and HUDs, the degree of cockpit intelligence is expected to be further improved. Intelligent driving: The implementation of high-end functions requires more hardware support. High-end functions such as NOA functions and AI driving have been gradually implemented, and the penetration rate of high-end intelligent driving functions has increased. From the perspective of bicycle configuration, models with NOA functions need more sensors, with cameras increasing from 5-6 to 11-13 at L2, millimeter-wave radars from 1-3 to 3-6, and LiDAR generally 1-3, with a significant increase in the number of sensors. The raw or processed data of the sensor needs to be transmitted to the computing unit, and the increase in hardware makes the intelligent driving system need more high-speed connectors.
Intelligent cockpit: The trend of one core and multiple screens is obvious, and the cockpit interaction mode continues to be enriched. In the context of the e-EA upgrade, the cockpit is the first to realize domain control, and a single computing unit controls multiple peripherals or functions including LCD instruments and LCD central control. With the gradual increase in penetration, the average number of peripherals in the cockpit of automobiles is expected to increase, driving the increase in the use of automotive high-speed connectors.
High-level functions place higher demands on data transmission. Compared with traditional fuel or vehicles without ADAS function, high-end intelligent driving functions and intelligent cockpit applications need to meet higher real-time performance, so higher requirements are put forward for the rate of data transmission. The high-end intelligent driving function and the intelligent cockpit assembly upgrade resonate, the application prospect of automotive high-speed connector is broad, and it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the domestic automotive high-speed connector market segment.
2.1 The downstream application of connectors is extensive, and multi-industry drives the scale upward
Connectors are electronic components that transmit and exchange electric current or optical signals between electronic system devices. As a node, the connector transmits current or optical signals between devices, components, equipment, and subsystems independently or together with wiring harnesses, and keeps the signal distortion and energy loss between the systems without changes, and is the basic element necessary to form the connection of the entire complete system. According to the different transmission medium, it can be divided into electrical connectors, microwave connectors, optical connectors and fluid connectors, among which automotive connectors are mainly electrical connectors.
The structure of the connector includes terminals, insulators, housings, shielding rings, seals, covers, etc. Among them, the terminal is the core component, which mainly completes the electrical connection function;Insulators are mainly used for support and insulation;The shell mainly plays a fixed and protective role.
Benefiting from the continuous development of downstream industries, the scale of the domestic connector market has grown steadily. According to the data of the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the domestic connector market size was 152.9 billion yuan in 2018, 193.9 billion yuan in 2022, and the CAGR from 2018 to 2022 was 612%, mainly due to the continuous innovation and development of downstream consumer electronics, communications and automotive industries. From the perspective of downstream applications, automobiles are one of the important markets for connectors. According to the data of the China Business Industry Research Institute, in 2022, the market share of the communication and automotive industries in the downstream applications of global connectors will be 238%/21.9%, the two most important downstream markets, mainly due to the rapid development of 5G communications, AI and intelligent connected vehicles.
2.2 Electrification is deep, and high-voltage connectors have achieved large-scale expansion
Automotive connectors are mainly divided into high and low voltage connectors and high-speed connectors. The fuel vehicle adopts a 12V platform, which has a low degree of intelligence and uses low-voltage connectorsNew energy vehicles replace the engine and gearbox in the traditional power system through the three-electric system, the voltage and current platform is improved, and the demand for high-voltage connectors such as PDU (power distribution unit), OBC (on-board charger), and DC DC module is greatly increasedHigh-speed connectors are mainly used in automotive subsystems that require higher digital and analog signal transmission rates, such as intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, and intelligent networking.
Electric vehicles compared with fuel vehicles more than three electric system, the vehicle voltage platform to improve the demand for high-voltage connectors, in the new energy vehicle penetration rate from 0% to 30% in the process, high-voltage connectors have become the main driving force for the growth of domestic automotive connectors. Benefiting from the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the scale of the domestic high-voltage connector market has grown rapidly. 2020-2022 is the three years of rapid growth in China's new energy vehicle sales, with the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles increasing from 1.17 million to 6.5 million, with a CAGR of 84% from 2019 to 2022, and the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are growing rapidly. According to wiring harness China data, a new energy passenger car single vehicle high-voltage connector use between 6-15 logarithms, corresponding to the value of a single vehicle between 700-1200 yuan, according to the use of 10 pairs of high-voltage connectors per vehicle, the value of a single vehicle 1150 yuan, in 2022 the domestic new energy passenger car high-voltage connector market size is about 7.9 billion yuan, with the continuous improvement of the permeability rate of new energy vehicles, the automotive high-voltage connector market is expected to continue to expand, but the overall growth rate is gradually slowing down.
2.3. Intelligent relay, high-speed connector guarantee function upgrade
According to the signal difference, automotive high-speed connectors are mainly divided into coaxial connectors and differential connectors. Among them, the coaxial connector mainly transmits analog signals, mainly including FAKRA, mini-FAKRA, of which the FAKRA connector originated from Rosenberg, has become a common standard connector in the industry;Differential connectors mainly transmit digital signals, mainly including HSD connectors (Highspeed Data Connector) and Ethernet connectors, HSD is mainly used for in-vehicle infotainment systems, etc., and Ethernet connectors are mainly used for Internet of Vehicles systems.
High-speed connectors are the basic components to ensure the upgrade of intelligent functions. Whether it is the intelligent driving function, or the application of the intelligent cockpit, all put forward higher requirements for the speed and stability of data transmission between sub-devices, as the basic and key components, high-speed connectors will have greater application prospects in the process of intelligent acceleration. High-speed connectors are expected to be the next fast-growing item. We judge that the next three years will be a stage of rapid improvement in the penetration rate of high-end intelligent driving, and the number of models with L3-like functions will be increasing, driving the increase in hardware configurations such as sensors, superimposing the increase in the number of cockpit configurations and the realization of the Internet of Vehicles, and the inflection point of the demand for high-speed connectors in the downstream of the industry.
In the process of accelerating automotive intelligence, we believe that there are three main reasons for the growth of demand for automotive high-speed connectors: the first is that the Ea upgrade is expected to bring about the growth of demand for Ethernet connectors and ensure the efficient communication of various systems in the vehicleThe second is that the average number of terminals in the intelligent cockpit is expected to continue to growThe third is the acceleration of the penetration rate of vehicles with high-end intelligent driving functions.
3.1. The advantages of incremental configuration are obvious, and the assembly volume is expected to increase rapidly
At present, the vehicle architecture is a domain-centralized architecture, and the upgrade of the architecture has higher requirements for data transmission, and the demand for connectors continues to rise. The software is the key factor in the upgrade from distributed to centralized domain, and the hardware behind it also needs to be optimized for functionality and flexibility on the basis of performing basic functions to face challenges such as the surge in data volume, the improvement of the overall computing power of the ECU, and the increase in the complexity of wiring harnesses.
After the upgrade of the e-e architecture of the whole vehicle, it still needs modular hardware to support it as a shared platform. The regional vehicle network is made up of the center and a plurality of regions, and the electronic equipment is not grouped logically, but is grouped by physical location, and sensors, actuators and functions are all locally connected with the regional input, output controller, and the regional IO controller is connected with the center by the high-speed Ethernet network backbone. In the transmission process, it is necessary to improve the connection speed between the edge end and the brain, promote the development of efficient edge nodes, and meet the requirements of ensuring the importance of information, functional safety and information security. The function of high-speed connectors to facilitate the efficient transfer of data between various sensors and actuators is still not negligible. The demand for high-speed connectors remains high under the Ethernet architecture. With hundreds of calculators installed in cars that rely on in-vehicle networks to deliver services to drivers, Ethernet provides high data rates and design flexibility for a new era of automotive innovation, transforming vehicle architectures from flat CAN-based networks to hierarchical networks of multiple domains such as infotainment, powertrain, and driver assistance. In the process of E EA's transition from distributed to domain centralized, Ethernet has great potential to realize new in-vehicle network architectures by enabling broadband connectivity, providing advanced control functions and the necessary latency and performance required for full dynamics, and is expected to be the best solution for automotive data management.
The penetration of intelligent cockpits has accelerated, and the functional boundaries have continued to expand. Multi-screen is the future development direction, mobile phones, tablets and other mobile Internet terminal equipment has cultivated user touch Xi, large screen, multi-screen, LCD screen has become one of the standards to measure the level of vehicle intelligence;Human-computer interaction increases, consumer Internet, mobile applications on the car, mobile office, infotainment and other functions are realized, adding convenience and interest during driving;The addition of AI large models not only provides multi-modal interaction methods and personalized services, but also realizes user data security and privacy protection, and the level of automotive intelligence is expected to be rapidly improved in the future, and the functions are expected to iterate steadily.
The function and penetration rate of intelligent cockpit have been steadily increasing. Taking the assembly rate of the core hardware domain controller of the intelligent cockpit as an example, the penetration rate of the intelligent cockpit of each belt vehicle is expected to continue to increase in the future. The penetration rate of models with more than 250,000 yuan can usher in rapid growth from 2023 to 2025, reaching about 70%, an increase of more than 60pct compared with 2020. The second is 15-200,000 yuan** with models, the current penetration rate is about 10%, and it is expected to reach more than 30% in 2025, an increase of 21pct. Below 100,000 yuan, due to the significant BOM cost of a single vehicle, the penetration rate of intelligent cockpit domain controllers has increased slowly.
The acceleration of L3 commercialization is a core driver for the high-speed connector industry. According to the data of Gaogong Intelligent Vehicles, in 2022, 1001 passenger cars in the Chinese market will be delivered with standard assisted driving (L0-L2).220,000 units, with a front-loading rate of more than 50% for the first time. Since 2023, the policy side has continued to help accelerate the pace of high-level intelligent driving, and the policy side has increased support, which is expected to promote OEMs to accelerate the launch of high-end function (such as NOA) models, drive the average number of intelligent driving hardware in the whole vehicle, and drive the demand for high-speed connectors.
The penetration rate of high-end intelligent driving has increased rapidly, and the demand for data transmission has risen steadily. In the future, the penetration rate of intelligent driving domain controllers will usher in rapid growth in high-level autonomous driving models (L2 and L3), and it is expected that the penetration rate of L2 will reach about 33% in 2023, and the penetration rate of L3 will reach 8%. From 2024 onwards, the overall penetration rate of L2 and L3 will reach more than 50%, dominating the position. It is estimated that by 2030, the penetration rate of L2 and L3 will reach 45% and 32%, respectively, for a total of 77%, an increase of 360pct。The penetration rate of L0 smart driving models has decreased significantly, and is expected to decline by 84 from 2016 to 203011pct, L1 in 2030 or maintain a penetration rate of around 10%.
3.2 Space: 23-27 years of rapid growth in the scale of high-speed connectors
The full application of intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit, the use of high-speed connectors, the sales of smart cars, and the value of bicycles are synergistically upgraded, and the scale of the industry is expected to grow rapidly. Intelligent driving: The value of a high-speed connector is positively correlated with the level of autonomous driving. Benefiting from the upgrade of intelligent driving functions, the use of RF FAKRA, Mini FAKRA, HD camera connectors, and LiDAR connectors is expected to increase. In terms of value, the value of L0 L1 L2 L3 automotive high-speed connector bicycles is expected to increase from 150 400 1000 1500 yuan in 22 years to 200 600 1300 1800 yuan in 27 years. Combined with the penetration rate of all levels of intelligent driving**, it is expected that the domestic intelligent driving high-speed connector market size is expected to increase from 100 in 2022500 million yuan to 316 in 2027100 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 25 from 2022 to 20278%。
Smart cockpit: The growth in demand for high-speed connectors is due to the increase in the number of terminals. The number of screens in smart cockpits continues to grow, and according to wind data, the average number of screens installed in a single vehicle in the global automotive industry has increased from 096 blocks grew to 1 in 202082 blocks. With the gradual increase in the penetration rate of new products such as HUD and light field screens, we expect that the average number of HUD light field screens in domestic bicycle screens in 2023 will be 188/0.1 0, and it is expected that the average number of HUD screens for bicycles in 2027 will be 233/0.31/0.06 pcs. In terms of the value of a single vehicle, it is estimated that the value of domestic automotive cockpit high-speed connectors will be 270 yuan in 2023 and 350 yuan in 2027.
Combined with passenger car sales**, it is expected that the domestic smart cockpit high-speed connector market size is expected to increase from 28700 million yuan to 74 in 2027500 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 21% from 2022 to 2027.
The scale of the domestic automotive high-speed connector industry has maintained rapid growth. Overall, the domestic automotive high-speed connector market size will be 390 in 20275.6 billion yuan, an increase of 202% over 2022, with a compound growth rate of 248%, the domestic automotive high-speed connector market is expected to grow rapidly.
4.1 The number of parts and the ability to design become the core barriers of connectors
There are nearly 100 types of connectors needed by automobiles, and the number of parts is one of the core barriers of connector companies in the automotive industry. There are many types of automotive connectors, and electrical functions, installation parts, connection structures, shape specifications, size specifications, and working frequencies are all variables that affect the types. From the perspective of installation parts, chassis systems, instrument panels, engine systems, safety systems, etc. all require connector applications. In each installation part and application system, due to the difference in functional requirements resulting in obvious differences in connector design, the number of parts determines the industry status of connector enterprises.
Stable plating technology and production and processing tools are required in the production process of each part number, and the threshold of the connector is raised with high technical difficulty. In terms of electroplating technology, tin is a common material with a wide range of applications among the commonly used connector metal coatings, but it is also a metal that is prone to whiskers. In electronic circuits, conductive tin whiskers will cause electronic short circuits, reduce the reliability of electronic devices, and even cause electronic device failures or failures. Therefore, during the electroplating process, measures need to be taken to prevent this. TE Connectivity uses Litesurf plating technology to help solve tin whisker problems. On the production and processing tools, the terminal is crimped to the wire, and the connector is pressed to the circuit board, all of which require corresponding tools, and the high-quality crimping tool requires low adjustment time, longevity, and ease of installation and adjustment.
The design and development ability of connectors is another core competitiveness of connector enterprises. The application of automotive connectors needs to go through five stages: planning and definition, product design and development, process design and development, product and process validation, feedback evaluation and correction. Having complete design and development capabilities can help connector companies fully meet the needs of car companies and complete the rapid iteration and onboarding of products.
The connector test process is complex, and the stability, safety and freedom from external interference of signal transmission are the key indicators. From the perspective of testing capabilities, there are many ways to test signal integrity, including waveform testing, eye diagram testing, jitter testing, TDR testing, timing testing, spectrum testing, frequency domain impedance testing, transmission line loss testing, and bit error testing. Among them, waveform test, eye diagram test, jitter test, and timing test all need to use an oscilloscope to analyze the characteristics of the waveform. TDR testing is primarily used for PCB signal lines as well as impedance testing during periods, requiring test results to be combined with real-world application conditions. Spectrum testing uses a spectrum analyzer to check whether there are out-of-standard frequency points and locate the root cause of exceedance. Frequency domain impedance testing and transmission line loss testing require the use of a network analyzer, and may also use balun for scoring and individual conversion. Bit error testing is actually a system test, which is detected by a bit error meter. The most suitable test method can be selected among various test methods to achieve the highest test efficiency.
4.2 Pattern: foreign capital maintains the lead, and domestic design capabilities follow up
Foreign-funded enterprises have the integrity of products and part numbers, and at the same time, they have the ability to design production lines in the production process to fully solve the know how. In terms of product portfolio, foreign-funded enterprises have a product portfolio covering multiple systems of the whole vehicle, covering a variety of connectors such as low voltage, high voltage, and high speed. At the same time, foreign-funded enterprises have the production and manufacturing capacity of automation equipment, which can reduce the risk of scrapping and improve product quality through quality analysis of pre-crimped components, and achieve accurate product output through multi-step stripping. At the same time, an automated production line with a variety of terminal production capacity is required, and high-pressure modular stamping modules that can flexibly configure and flexibly produce multi-type terminals have become the key.
Domestic car companies have leading high-end intelligent driving functions and have higher requirements for data transmission speed. In terms of the progress of high-level functions, the time taken by domestic OEMs to land in urban NOA is ahead of that of foreign OEMs. Tesla and domestic new car companies are expected to land the urban NOA function by the end of 2023, independent brands are expected to land the urban NOA function in 2025, and foreign brands are expected to complete the implementation of the function after 2025. Domestic OEMs have higher requirements for high-end intelligent driving functions, and higher requirements for high-speed connectors for high transmission volume and transmission speed.
The iteration speed of domestic automakers is accelerating, and the degree of cooperation of parts manufacturers is higher. Taking Horizon as an example, the multi-mode cooperation mode can make the innovation of OEMs more and more collaborative, proactive, and leading. At the same time, collaborative development methods such as laboratory sharing and joint testing make the chip on the car faster and the function landing time shorter. Faster function landing requires faster cooperation of high-speed connector manufacturers, so as to ensure the rapid advancement of functions, and domestic high-speed connector manufacturers are expected to gain a larger market share with faster response speed and higher degree of cooperation.
Domestic connector enterprises focus on production and manufacturing capabilities, and gradually break through production design and development capabilities. Domestic suppliers focus on manufacturing and gradually supplement their design and development capabilities. In the process of vehicle design and development, after the vehicle manufacturer determines the function, the connector supplier needs to determine the functional boundary and complete the vehicle function adaptation and connector development. From the perspective of high-speed connector competition pattern, foreign-funded enterprises such as Tyco, Amphenol, Aptiv, and Rosenberg are leading, with a market share of more than 85%, and domestic enterprises are gradually breaking through in the manufacturing process and are expected to gradually obtain the vehicle development capabilities of high-speed connectors.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any investment advice from us. To use the information, please refer to the original report. ）
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