See the world from a financial perspective.
Author |Shengma Finance Zhou Ruijun
Edit|Ouyang Wen
A few days ago, the Financial Times released the top ten international financial news in 2023, reviewing various key news in the global economic and financial field in the past year from a macro perspective.
As an ordinary financial observer in the field of finance and economics, as the year is approaching, Shengma Finance has selected ten major events in the financial field of the year (in no particular order) from the dual perspectives of home and abroad, which constitute the focus of this year's domestic and foreign economic and financial fields from different aspects, and also more or less indicate the new direction of future financial and economic development.
Through the observation and analysis of these major events, we hope to better help readers understand the trends of the financial market and provide a more comprehensive and in-depth reference for future economic decision-making. This also allows people to feel the pulse of the economic environment more intuitively, and provides stronger support for the accurate grasp of financial trends.
Silicon Valley Bank in the United States suddenly declared bankruptcy and collapsed
In March, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation shut down Silicon Valley Bank on the grounds of "illiquidity and insolvency" and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as receiver.
Founded in 1983, Silicon Valley Bank is the 16th largest bank in the United States, primarily financing start-ups. As of the end of 2022, SVB's total assets were about $209 billion and total deposits were about $175.4 billion, AFP reported.
Shengma micro review:This incident exposed the liquidity risks faced by financial institutions in general. One of the reasons for the closure of Silicon Valley Bank was "illiquidity," which indicated that the bank was having trouble maintaining the liquidity it needed for day-to-day operations. This may be related to factors such as banks' over-reliance on short-term financing instruments, inadequate liquidity management, and failure to respond to market volatility in a timely manner. This highlights the key challenges that financial institutions are facing in the current period in terms of asset liability management and liquidity risk management.
Lower the interest rate on the first home loan on the stock
The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a notice on matters related to the reduction of the interest rate of the first housing loan, starting from September 25, 2023, borrowers of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing in stock can apply to the financial institution that undertakes the loan, and the financial institution will issue a new loan to replace the commercial personal housing loan for the first housing in stock.
The interest rate level of the new loan shall be determined by the financial institution and the borrower through negotiation, but the increase in the interest rate (LPR) of the loan market shall not be lower than the lower limit of the interest rate policy for the first housing commercial personal housing loan in the city where the original loan is issued. The newly issued loans can only be used to repay the existing commercial personal housing loans for the first house, and are still included in the management of commercial personal housing loans.
Shengma micro review:The reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loan can save the interest burden of residents and significantly enhance the consumption capacity. This policy adjustment is good for the medium and long term, which can continue to reduce the expenditure of households with higher interest rate loans to buy houses in recent years, support the improvement of residents' spending power, and effectively promote consumption growth.
In the long run, it will not only help families plan for their long-term finances and improve their confidence in future consumption, but also help form a more stable home buying market. A stable real estate market can help maintain the stability of the financial system and reduce the risk of non-performing loans, thereby providing more sustainable support to the overall economy.
The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration was officially listed
On May 18, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration was officially launched. According to the reform plan, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration was established on the basis of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, which is responsible for the supervision of the financial industry except for the first industry. This is a major measure to deepen the reform of the financial regulatory system, strengthen and improve modern financial supervision, and promote the realization of full coverage of financial supervision.
Shengma micro review:This initiative will help to strengthen the overall coordination of financial supervision. By integrating the responsibilities of the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration has become a unified regulatory body, which can better coordinate and deal with issues involving multiple financial fields and improve the pertinence and accuracy of supervision.
Second, the newly established State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration is expected to strengthen the monitoring and prevention of financial risks. In the current complex and volatile international financial environment, a unified regulatory authority can help to understand the dynamics of the financial market more comprehensively, detect and respond to potential risks in a timely manner, and maintain the stable operation of the financial system.
**The reform of the issuance and registration system has been fully implemented
On April 10, the listing ceremony of the first batch of enterprises under the main board registration system of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was held online in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the first batch of 10 companies under the main board registration system such as Jiangyan Group, Haisen Pharmaceutical and Shaanxi Energy were officially listed. This marks the full implementation of the reform of the first-class issuance registration system and another important milestone in the reform and development of China's capital market.
Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the listing ceremony that the changes brought about by the reform of the registration system are all-round and fundamental, and the issuance and listing system with information disclosure as the core has withstood the test of the market. Remarkable results have been achieved in key institutional innovations such as delisting, major breakthroughs have been made in the construction of the rule of law, the service function of the capital market for the real economy, especially scientific and technological innovation, has been greatly improved, profound changes have taken place in the market structure and market ecology, and market vitality and market resilience have been significantly enhanced, bringing a real sense of gain to all parties involved in the market.
Shengma micro review:The changes brought about by the reform of the registration system are all-round and fundamental, mainly reflected in the issuance and listing system, and the system with information disclosure as the core has withstood the test in the market test. This means that the listing of enterprises is more focused on the transparency and authenticity of information disclosure, which helps to improve the credibility of the market and the confidence of investors.
The major breakthrough in the construction of the rule of law is another bright spot in the reform of the registration system. The progress of the rule of law has provided a more sound legal framework for the capital market, which is conducive to standardizing the market order and ensuring the long-term healthy development of the market. The reform of the registration system will also help to channel funds to innovative enterprises more effectively and promote the organic combination of scientific and technological innovation and the development of the real economy.
Overall, the registration-based reform has brought substantial benefits to China's capital market, and the market vitality and resilience have been significantly enhanced. This reform achievement not only provides investors with more choices and opportunities, but also provides a more convenient way for enterprises to raise funds, and promotes the healthy and orderly development of the capital market.
The 6th International Import ExpoOpening in Shanghai
In November, the 6th China International Import Expo will be held offline at the National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai), and this year's CIIE, 65 countries and international organizations will participate in the Expo, of which 10 countries will participate for the first time and 33 countries will participate offline for the first time. The exhibition area of the China Pavilion has been increased from 1,500 square meters to 2,500 square meters, the largest scale in the past, and the "Achievement Exhibition of the 10th Anniversary of the Construction of the Pilot Free Trade Zone" has been established.
In addition, the enterprise business exhibition area continues to set up six exhibition areas: food and agricultural products, automobiles, technical equipment, consumer goods, medical equipment and medicine and health care, and services, and focuses on creating an innovation incubation area. The exhibition area, the number of the world's top 500 companies and industry leading enterprises have all reached a new high.
Shengma micro review:The 6th China International Import Expo (CIIE) was grandly opened in Shanghai, building a platform for countries around the world to share development opportunities. The scale of this year's CIIE has reached a new high, with the exhibition area of the China Pavilion increasing from 1,500 square meters to 2,500 square meters, the largest in the history of the Expo. This reflects China's determination and practical actions to continue to expand its opening-up, and provides a broader space for cooperation between enterprises from all over the world. At the same time, 65 countries and international organizations participated, of which 10 countries participated for the first time and 33 countries participated offline for the first time, further enriching the diversity and internationality of the expo.
Among them, the multi-field and multi-level display will help promote the docking and cooperation of the global industrial chain, and promote the common development of countries in science and technology, medical care, agriculture and other aspects.
ChatGPT ushers in a new era of generative intelligent AI
ChatGPT was developed by OpenAI, released at the end of 2022, and will become a complete global hit in 2023. It has the ability to generate conversations by automatically learning large amounts of text data. ChatGPT has demonstrated strong language understanding and generation capabilities in the field of natural language processing, and is widely used in scenarios such as chat interaction and text generation.
ChatGPT represents the advanced level of generative AI technology, bringing great innovation to the field of natural language processing. It has made significant progress in improving the ability of computers to understand and generate text, and has promoted the development of human-computer interaction, intelligent customer service, content creation, and other fields. The continuous evolution of generative AI has also led to deep thinking about the ethics and security of technology, prompting society to be more cautious and responsible about the use of AI**.
Shengma micro review:The release and widespread application of ChatGPT reflects the rapid development of AI technology in the business and technology fields. At the same time, the success of ChatGPT has also pushed the stock prices of related technology companies, becoming a hot spot for investors to chase, and promoting the wave of technological innovation.
The wide application of ChatGPT in chat interaction, text generation and other fields has promoted the digital transformation of enterprises. Through intelligent natural language processing, enterprises can improve efficiency and reduce costs, so as to maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition and have a positive impact on the economic industry chain.
With the popularization of ChatGPT technology, emerging industries such as intelligent customer service, voice assistants, and creative content generation have emerged. This not only promotes the rise of related industries, but also provides the possibility of new business models and services, bringing positive changes to the overall economic structure.
China's automobile exports have jumped to the first place in the world
According to the latest data released by the China Association of Manufacturers, from January to November this year, the export volume of automobiles was 44120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 584%。Based on this projection, the annual automobile export volume will jump to the first place in the world. New energy vehicles continue to be the main force of growth, and in the first 11 months, new energy vehicle exports were 10910,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 835%。
Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade structure has continued to show positive changes, and the "new three" represented by electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar (000591) batteries have become a vivid portrayal of the accelerated upgrading of foreign trade.
Shengma micro review:China's automobile exports surpassed Japan and jumped to the first place in the world, which is of great economic and industrial significance. First of all, the leading position of Chinese auto companies in terms of export volume shows that their competitiveness and influence in the international market are increasing. This reflects the significant improvement of China's auto industry in terms of technology, quality and market adaptability, and establishes a more solid position for Chinese auto brands in the global market.
Automobile exports surpassing Japan are not only a quantitative victory, but also an affirmation of the development of new energy vehicles. In China's auto exports, new energy vehicles have played an important role and become the main force driving growth. This will not only help Chinese new energy vehicle companies emerge in the global market, but also demonstrate China's responsibility to combat climate change and sustainable development.
31 articles were promulgated to promote the development and growth of the private economy
During the year, an important document on promoting the development and growth of the private economy (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") was promulgated, which put forward 31 specific requirements from eight aspects, including continuously optimizing the environment for the development of the private economy, increasing policy support for the private economy, and strengthening the legal guarantee for the development of the private economy.
The opinions put forward that the environment for the development of the private economy should be continuously optimized. Among them, there are four aspects: continuously breaking down market access barriers, fully implementing fair competition policies and systems, improving social credit incentive and restraint mechanisms, and improving market-oriented reorganization mechanisms.
Shengma micro review:The opinions on promoting the development and growth of the private economy cover many aspects, such as optimizing the economic development environment, increasing policy support, solving the problem of arrears, and strengthening the protection of the rule of law. The document emphasizes breaking down market access barriers, comprehensive fair competition, improving financing and bond market support, and preventing arrears, aiming to enhance the competitiveness and financing convenience of private enterprises, and at the same time safeguard the rights and interests of enterprises through the rule of law, so as to create more favorable conditions for the sustainable development of the private economy.
COP28 reached a "historic agreement".
"Getting rid of" fossil fuels into the text
The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, concluded this year with the adoption of the final agreement.
According to Qatar's Al Jazeera, this historic agreement will push countries for the first time to "wean" themselves from fossil fuels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. According to Reuters, the agreement is intended to send a strong signal to investors and policymakers that the world's willingness to wean itself off fossil fuels is unanimous.
This is also the first time in nearly 30 years since the UN climate summit was held that countries agreed to transition from fossil fuels. Participants said the UAE was "proud" of its role in brokering the first-ever climate deal calling for a shift away from fossil fuels.
Shengma micro review:The adoption of this agreement marks an important step forward in the consensus of countries around the world on the issue of climate change, and expresses the firm determination to address climate change and promote sustainable development.
The agreement to move away from "fossil fuels" underscores the urgent need for the global community to combat climate change. The move sends a strong signal to global investors and policymakers that the international community is collectively committed to reducing carbon emissions and shifting to more sustainable forms of energy. This has a positive effect on achieving the global carbon neutrality goal and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on the earth.
The UAE played a key role in reaching the agreement, setting an example for global climate action. It also underscores the importance of global cooperation in tackling global issues, and the need for countries to work together to address the challenge of climate change.
Overall, this "historic agreement" at COP28 is a positive and important step taken by the international community in the field of climate change, laying a more solid foundation for sustainable development in the future.
In 2023, it will hit a record high
In the morning of the Asian session on December 4, New York*** referred to as "comex**" London spot ** once broke through the 2100 mark. comex*** hit an intraday high of 2152$3 oz;London spot** rose as high as 2144$68 ounces, both of which continued to hit record highs.
Industry analysts believe that ** is related to the recent performance of the US dollar. Last week, the Federal Reserve reportedly reiterated that it would act cautiously in an attempt to downplay the expectation of a rate cut, but the market did not buy it, and Wall Street's expectations of a rate cut further strengthened, pushing gold prices higher. In addition, the US economic data showed a more pronounced weakening, resulting in a significant increase in US Treasury rates and the US dollar, which was also positive***
In addition, data released by the World ** Association on October 31 showed that global central banks bought 337 tons of gold in the third quarter, the third highest quarterly net purchase of gold in history. Although it failed to break the record set in Q3 2022, central bank demand for gold purchases has reached 800t year-to-date in 2023, setting the latest record since the association began to compile such data. Central banks expect strong gold purchase demand to remain strong for the remainder of the year.
Shengma micro review:Hitting a record high in 2023 reflects a number of factors. First of all, the weak performance of the US dollar is a significant driver of ***. The Fed stressed that it would be cautious and tried to downplay the expectation of a rate cut, but the market did not buy it and instead strengthened the expectation of a rate cut, resulting in the dollar**. It is usually inversely correlated to the US dollar, so a weaker US dollar boosts***
Secondly, the weakening of US economic data also had a positive impact on ***. Weak performance in the U.S. economy could trigger increased demand for safe-haven assets, which are favored as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, global central banks still maintain strong purchase demand in the first few months of 2023, which further supports central banks as one of the main buyers, and their buying behavior has a positive signal to the market and also increases investor confidence in **. Overall, the all-time high in 2023 is mainly driven by a combination of factors such as a weaker US dollar, a weaker US economy, and increased global central bank gold purchase demand. Investors' demand for safe-haven assets and concerns about economic uncertainty are the driving forces to continue in the near term.
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