Donbass conflict: The United States and Europe promote peace between Ukraine and Russia Interpret the risk of war.
Recently, the situation in Ukraine has become increasingly tense, and Mark Epikepolis, a military writer for the American magazine "The National Interest", wrote an article discussing the reasons why it would be unprofitable if Russia and Ukraine went to war in the Donbas region.
At present, there is no indication that the Russian army has decided to intervene in the conflict in Donbass, because doing so not only violates the "Minsk Agreements" signed by Russia, but also puts Russia under the threat of "being sanctioned" and "reaping the consequences of the war". Therefore, some military maneuvers of the Russian side are just a normal reaction to tensions.
Ukraine thinks about the same as Russia. If Ukraine resolves the Donbass issue by force, it is very likely to make a strategic mistake and break out into a one-on-one conflict with the Russian army, with unimaginable results.
Ukraine wants to be supported by the United States and Europe in the use of military means to solve the problem of Donbass, but the same illusion was shared by historical Georgia. Therefore, despite the tensions in the Donbass, the situation would not be so bad if both sides could exercise self-restraint.
The side that started the war would be at a very disadvantage. This article by the United States seems to be ostensibly to dissuade Russia and Ukraine from a military conflict, but in fact it also shows the decisive role of the United States and Europe in resolving this issue.
If the United States and Europe express their stance to Ukraine at the same time, promising that they will not intervene militarily in the conflict in Donbass, Ukraine will not attack easily;Russia will also refrain from provoking a conflict because of sanctions and the consequences of war. Such an act actually played the role of "stopping the war".
However, judging from the current actions of the United States and Europe, it seems that they do not want to stop the war, but desperately want a large-scale military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the event of a war, while neither side will benefit, the United States and Europe will be able to impose new sanctions and may bring some small countries that feel at risk and hesitate into the anti-Russian camp.
Although the United States and Europe have been verbally clamoring that they do not want the situation in Ukraine to deteriorate, they have sent military experts to train Ukrainian soldiers and even sent warships into the Black Sea, which in fact has become an uncertain factor that triggers a large-scale military conflict in the Donbas region.
Retired US Army Colonel Glas McGregor warned in an article that Biden's anti-Russian rhetoric and aggravation of the situation in Donbass could lead the United States into a war for which it was not prepared. He believes that Ukraine's armed solution to the Donbass problem will not only provoke a Russian-American conflict, but Biden has not explained to the domestic population the need for the United States to get involved in this war.
McGregor believes that the current White House not only does not have an "adult" who can directly say no, but also connives, Biden is also conniving at things thousands of miles away from the United States. As a colonel in the U.S. Army, he issued a warning. It can be seen that American soldiers are actually not willing to participate in the war thousands of miles away in their own country, and are even afraid of going head-to-head with the Russian army.
Like McGregor, a lot of people are concerned about his rank. What does a US Army colonel know about the national strategy, and what qualifications does he have to warn ** and criticize the White House for not having a single "adult"?However, from McGregor's rank, we can see that ordinary American soldiers are in fact reluctant to participate in wars that take place thousands of miles away in their own country, and are even afraid of a head-on confrontation with the Russian army.
NATO's forces in Europe are too weak to intervene in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict compared to Ukraine, and the NATO Air Force will not be able to profit from the impending conflict when the Russian army has various advanced air defense systems.
If the United States and Russia were to engage in a direct military conflict on their doorstep, the result would be heavy losses, regardless of whether they were won or lost, and perhaps the first to suffer heavy losses would be those American colonels on the front lines.
To sum up, despite the rhetorical hopes of the United States and Europe for the non-deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, their actions show that they become an uncertain factor that provokes a large-scale military conflict in the Donbas region. Because of Georgia's experience, the support of the United States and Europe will not prompt Ukraine to clash head-on with Russia. The possibility of the participation of the US military in the conflict and the direct confronting of the Russian army cannot be ruled out. Military sources in the United States have also issued warnings about this.