This article was co-authored by Medical Geography and FT Biology.
Glucagon-likepeptide-1 (GLP-1) is a hormone secreted by intestinal L cells, and its receptor (GLP-1R) is widely distributed in multiple organs and tissues, including the central nervous system, cardiovascular system, muscles, and gastrointestinal tract. In 2021, semaglutide was approved for obesity indication, and there was a thunderclap on the ground. After the transition from short-acting to long-acting, from type II diabetes drugs to "miracle drugs", GLP-1 is expected to expand its territory to chronic cardiovascular diseases, chronic nephritis, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and Alzheimer's disease in the future.
· GLP-1 How did the position of the three generations of "sugar kings" of GLP-1R be consolidated step by step?
What is changing in the GLP-1 GLP-1R market today?
How should the Chinese market respond to this global boom?Speaking with data, the author has recently used itPharma One Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform (ONE.)pharmadl.com），This paper analyzes and compares six mainstream drugs in the GLP-1R market, such as dulaglutide and semaglutide, and shows the similarities and differences in core information such as sales, R&D progress, and annual growth with real and vivid data charts.
(The following is the essence of the analysis, see the end of the article for details).
Figure 1: Overview of the global R&D progress of GLP1R target drugs (unit: items).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Figure 2: Overview of the global R&D process of GLP-1 target drugs (unit: items).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
From the perspective of the global R&D process, the thermal effect of GLP-1 driven by semaglutide and dulaglutide is obvious, and 32 studies are being carried out in the world, of which 15 are in China, which is riveting the momentum of catching up.
From the perspective of specific process distribution, most of China's related R&D projects are still in phase I clinical trials, with 6 projects, and the top three in progress are: GLP-1 ebenatide of Changshan Pharmaceutical, semaglutide of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and GLP-1R GCGR dual agonist Masdotide introduced by Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, all of which have entered phase III clinical trials.
As a well-established target of type 2 diabetes and obesity, GLP-1R has 252 related R&D projects around the world, of which 87 are in China, and as many as 26 are piled up in the preclinical stage, and the future is quite worryingIn addition to lowering blood sugar and reducing weight, the application field of GLP-1R target drugs is also steadily expanding to the fields of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), Alzheimer's disease, cardiovascular and other diseases.
Figure 3: Global GLP-1 GLP-1R drug sales ranking in 2022.
Unit: US$ million).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
In terms of market share, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk occupy more than 90% of the market, among which the sales of dulaglutide and semaglutide will both exceed the $10 billion mark in 2022In addition, it is worth noting that tirpatide, a GLP1R GIPR dual-receptor agonist approved for marketing in May 2022, has sold $2.8 billion in only half a year as a new generation of GLP1R drugs that Eli Lilly has high hopes for, showing strong market potential.
Next, this article will analyze the individual data changes of six mainstream drugs in the GLP-1R market, such as dulaglutide and semaglutide, in recent years, and capture the context of market development.
Dulaglutide
Sugar King: "Can you still fight in the twilight?".
Figure 4: Global sales trend chart of dulaglutide (in millions of US dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Figure 5: Dulaglutide sales trend in China (in millions of US dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Note: Data from 2023 to 2025 is ** sales.
Dulaglutide, known as the "sugar king", has been the main driver of Eli Lilly's revenue since it was approved for marketing in 2014. As the fourth GLP-1 receptor agonist marketed in the world, dulaglutide has quickly swept the global diabetes market with its once-a-week dosing frequency, although it has not taken the lead in marketing. The peak of global growth of dulaglutide occurred in 2016, and then maintained an annual growth rate of about 20% until 2021, when semaglutide was approved for the indication of obesity, which directly threatened the dominance of dulaglutide.
Judging from the R&D data, after losing to semaglutide and tirpatide in head-to-head experiments, the decline of dulaglutide is obviously difficult to regain. However, in the domestic market, dulaglutide still has the power to fight, and the current price is stable at 100-200 yuan after being included in the medical insurance catalog in 2020, and it is expected to maintain a high growth of 26% in 2025 with its first-mover advantage and market share.
Semaglutide
"** Miracle Medicine" Surrounded by wolves
Figure 6: Semaglutide global sales trend (in millions of dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Figure 7: Semaglutide sales trend in China (in millions of US dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
The world's only once-weekly GLP-1 and the first oral GLP-1 ...... for **Semaglutide is the absolute focus of the biomedical field in 2023.
Looking at the data,It has maintained a high growth rate of more than 70% in the worldAfter breaking through the 10 billion mark in 2022, the growth rate is limited by the production capacity and surplus market, which has slowed down significantly, but at least until 2025, its position as the king of drugs in the GLP-1 field is still unshakable. Another factor contributing to the slowdown in growth is the laggards in the market, but neither liraglutide, nor other small molecule GLP-1 drugs, mentioned later, have been able to break through the oral hurdle. Semaglutide, on the other hand, mainly relies on the absorption promoter SNAC to increase the permeability of gastrointestinal epithelial cells, so as to achieve oral administration.
In addition, peptide drugs used to belong to an unpopular subcategory in the pharmaceutical market, and the production capacity was up to kilograms and 100 kilograms to meet market demand. However, the emergence of the GLP-1** drug boom has made it impossible for upstream API and preparation companies to undertake such an order of capacity release in a timely manner, and it is expected that this shortage will continue to plague semaglutide throughout 2023.
Liraglutide
The original GLP-1 patent crisis
Figure 8: Liraglutide global sales trend chart (in millions of US dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Figure 9: Liraglutide sales trend in China (in millions of US dollars).
*:p HARMA ONE Smart Drug Big Data Analytics Platform, China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center.
Note: Data from 2023 to 2025 is ** sales.
As a representative of the first generation of GLP-1 drugs, liraglutide is in an embarrassing situation before the patent cliff, which is worthy of vigilance for latecomers.
Liraglutide, launched in 2010, is the world's second approved GLP-1 receptor agonist, developed by Eli Lilly, which only needs to be injected once a day and also has indications for weight loss. However, its efficacy and half-life have lost its market competitiveness as a first-generation drug, and it is currently in the sunset, with the global market volume remaining in the range of $3 billion to $4 billion. It is worth mentioning that in the domestic market, after the patent expired in 2017, Huadong Pharmaceutical won the first imitation of liraglutide, as the market entered the era of war, the current medical insurance liraglutide is less than 2 yuan a day.
This is also a wake-up call for other GLP-1 drugs, and with the increasingly fierce competition for GLP-1 drugs, strong patent protection capabilities can give drugs long-term commercial value.
Tirpatide
Menacing new challengers
Table 1: Comparison of data from major clinical studies of GLP-1 for the indication of weight loss.
The weight loss effect is up to 266%, can Eli Lilly's supernova stand firm?
Tirpatide, a GLP-1 GIP receptor co-agonist developed by Eli Lilly and administered once a week as a subcutaneous injection, has won a head-to-head trial with semaglutide in terms of glucose and weight loss capabilities, with the most significant weight loss effect: participants lost an average of 26 percent of their weight over a total of 84 weeks in a phase 3 clinical trial called Surmount-36%。
*：tirzepatide after intensive lifestyle intervention in adults with overweight or obesity: the surmount-3 phase 3 trial（
Not only does it have impressive clinical data, but it also lives up to expectations in terms of market performance, with sales of $2.8 billion in less than half a year. In addition to tirpatide, Eli Lilly is also developing Retatrutide, a GLP-1R GIPR GCGR three-target agonist, to further explore the direction of multiple targets.
In the GLP-1 era, the stars are shining, and we still have to wait for the annual reports of major pharmaceutical companies next spring.
But from the latest R&D data, we can vaguely see some future development trends:
The first is the optimization of the mode of administration, the current GLP-1 products are mostly injection administration, and the only oral GLP-1 drug semaglutide on the market has obvious advantages as an oral macromolecule drugSecondly, the success of tirpatide has indicated that multi-target drugs also have great prospects in the field of GLP-1 and GLP1RFinally, the well-known indications have been expanded, among which non-alcoholic hepatitis (NASH) is expected to be the first to see results, and semaglutide related experiments have entered the clinical stage.
We will continue to pay close attention to the market data in the field of GLP-1 GLP-1R, and look forward to more new drugs on the market to solve the immediate problems for the majority of diabetic patients and obese people. Attached Table: Global GLP1 drug sales statistics table in 2022.