Since the second half of 2022, affected by the overall poor market conditions, weak terminal demand, continuous destocking of the ** chain, and fragmentation of the industrial chain, the semiconductor industry has experienced a difficult 2023
This month, the mainstream market research institutions in the industry have given a report on next year.
WSTS expects global annual sales to decline by 9% year-on-year in 20234%, but will grow by 13 in 20241%, global semiconductor sales will grow from $520 billion in 2023 to $588.4 billion in 2024, and this growth is expected to be mainly driven by the storage market, and the industry is expected to soar to around $130 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. From a regional perspective, the WSTS expects only Europe to present 5With a growth of 9%, the rest of the regions are expected to face a recession, with the Americas region expected to decline by 61%, and the Asia-Pacific region will fall by 144%, Japan will slide by 20%。However, WSTS expects continued expansion in all regions in 2024, especially in the Americas and Asia-Pacific, where significant double-digit year-on-year growth is expected.
IDC predicts that global semiconductor revenue will decline by 12 percent year-on-year in 20230% to $526.5 billion, but higher than the agency's $519 billion projected in September. It is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in 20242% to $633 billion, up from $626 billion previously. IDC believes that the visibility of semiconductor growth will improve as the long-term inventory adjustments in the two largest segments, PCs and smartphones, fade, and inventory levels in automotive and industrial are expected to return to normal levels in the second half of 2024 as electrification continues to drive semiconductor content growth over the next decade. From a demand perspective, the U.S. market will remain resilient, while China will begin to recover in the second half of 2024.
TechInsights expects global demand for semiconductors (logic, memory, and analog & discretes) to decline by 15% in 2023 (down from 11% previously**) and integrated circuit sales to decline by 12%, while 2024 will be a record year for the global semiconductor industry, with the total market size surpassing the peak in 2022. TechInsights** The semiconductor industry will continue to grow in the long term, with semiconductor demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 8%, and the semiconductor industry is expected to double in size over the next decade, generating more than $1 trillion in revenue.
Gartner expects global semiconductor revenue to decline by 10 percent in 20239% to $534 billion, with a growth of 16 in 20248% to $624 billion. Gartner believes that the global storage market will decline by 38 percent in 20238%, and in 2024 it will soar by 663%。NAND Flash** will bottom out over the next 3 to 6 months and see a strong recovery in 2024 with a 49% year-over-year increase6%。DRAM is also expected to usher in *** in 2024, and sales revenue is expected to increase by 88% year-on-year. Driven by double-digit growth in the storage market, the overall semiconductor market will usher in double-digit growth.
Total global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment are expected to reach $100 billion in 2023, down 6 percent from last year's record $107.5 billion1%。Growth is expected to resume in 2024 and reach a new high of $124 billion in 2025. Among them, Chinese mainland, Taiwan and South Korea are expected to remain the top three regional markets for equipment spending in the next two years.
It is not difficult to see that almost all institutions have given a very optimistic **, and unanimously believe that the industry will enter a recovery cycle next year. IDC is the most optimistic for next year among several institutions, and it believes that the current semiconductor market has bottomed out, so it raised its expectations in the latest **.
Memory chips, known as semiconductor cycle compasses, have shown signs of recovery. The data shows that in the fourth quarter of this year, the contract price of memory chips ** is better than market expectations, DDR5**15 20, DDR4**10 15, DDR3**10, the increase is better than the original estimate of 5 10;NAND has risen by at least 20 25 per family on average, with an even greater increase.
It is true that compared with 2022, since the second half of 2023, some positive "signs" have gradually emerged in the semiconductor industry, and new technology trends have exploded, becoming a quite transformative year in recent years. Memory chips and modules, and some analog chips have increased in price to varying degreesHuawei's magnificent return with the Mate series and the launch of Apple's iPhone 15 series have largely driven the demand for semiconductors, and some models have even seen urgent ordersThe wave of AIGC large models driven by ChatGPT and the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market have made AI processors, HBM, CoDos, HPC, Chiplet, silicon carbide, etc. the hottest darlings this year, and also become a strong shot in the arm for market recovery. The semiconductor investment and financing market also showed a trend of low before and then high, indicating that the confidence of investment institutions in the semiconductor industry is rebounding, and the industry is gradually recovering.
But can the semiconductor industry really be optimistic in 2024?Probably not, there is still a bit of gloom over the market.
First of all, although the overall inventory of the industry has been digested to a stage, under the influence of insufficient global economic momentum and continuous conflicts in many regions, the terminal demand has not yet appeared large**. Especially for consumer electronics, which is an important application scenario of semiconductors, if there is no new appealing product, consumers still do not have sufficient power to replace their phones, and the market will not grow significantly. In particular, the pull of new energy sources such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics on semiconductor demand is gradually weakening, especially when automobile sales are less than expected, the demand for consumer electronics and AI is critical to whether the semiconductor market can usher in a strong **.
Secondly, the current situation in the Red Sea region is unstable, and the disorder of the maritime chain may cause chaos again to some industries and chains, which will further increase inflation in Europe and the United States and make it difficult for demand to recover. Taking the electric vehicle transportation industry as an example, there are ** reports that in view of the heightened tensions in the Red Sea, Tesla electric vehicles have chosen an alternative route for sea transportation from China to Europe, that is, a detour to the Cape of Good Hope. And with the extension of routes, the transportation cost of electric vehicles will increase by about 20%. Judging from China's exports to Europe, in addition to new energy vehicles, a large part of them are electronic products, clothing, toys and other goods, and the added value of these commodities is not high, so there is a high probability that they will still choose to take a detour. At the same time, traditional European e-commerce customers have generally adopted the first-chain model of low inventory before, and this incident has also had a great impact on the stability of the first-chain chain. In addition, the "Red Sea crisis" will also lead to higher logistics costs for commodities such as ores, natural gas, and **, which will then affect the downstream **chain**, and the final cost may be passed on to consumers.
Finally, the U.S. is still seeking to increase sanctions on Chinese technology, and plans to expand the scope of restrictions to mature processes in the near future. **The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) plans to investigate more than 100 companies in industries such as automotive, aerospace and defense starting in January 2024 to understand the extent to which the U.S. relies on mature, Chinese-made semiconductors, the report said. After the investigation, the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to initiate the process of imposing tariffs on Chinese semiconductors. In addition, measures to ban US defense companies from importing Chinese semiconductors are also under consideration. In addition, the United States has established a "quadripartite alliance" with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, China, and at the same time established a "small circle" of the semiconductor industry chain through the "quadrilateral mechanism" and "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, impacting the stability of the global chip industry chain. The United States' fanfare "core tactics" against China are also "injuring 1,000 enemies and injuring 800 self-inflicted losses", and even hit the global semiconductor industry hard.
In short, 2024 is a year full of challenges and hope, although mainstream institutions have recovered the market, but they are all idealized and built on the basis that there will be no black swan events. As the new year begins, the industry as a whole still needs to be cautious about navigating the cycle and welcoming the next spring as the inflection point of recovery arrives.
Source |Set micronet
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