At the end of this year, the OLED market ushered in a strong **, but it is also the time for LCD to enter the traditional off-season, and whether the LCD industry can achieve a balance between supply and demand has become the core issue of the industry's common concern about the profitability fluctuations of the panel industry. The recent news of the reduction in the utilization rate of major mainstream panel manufacturers has undoubtedly reassured many market participants who have the above doubts.
At present, major panel companies have been reported to be "overhauled" related news in the past week, and the product lines involved cover LCD large-size and medium-size products. It is foreseeable that in the next off-season, LCD** is expected to continue to remain above the overall profitability of the industry.
The relationship between supply and demand has become the primary concern of the industry, and the inventory of medium and large-sized products is below the safety line
At the TCL Huaxing Global Display Ecology Conference on December 7, Zhao Jun, senior vice president of TCL Technology and CEO of TCL Huaxing, said that in order to cope with the off-season in the first quarter of next year, TCL Huaxing is considering the factory's holiday arrangements during the Spring Festival. There is also a report that a few days ago, TCL Huaxing has posted a notice of a two-week holiday during the Spring Festival and the production line will be shut down for maintenance.
In fact, in addition to TCL Huaxing, according to ** reports, BOE, Huike and Xianyang Rainbow have also recently notified ** merchants to reduce their production capacity by more than 20% again. Since the beginning of this year, the panel industry has put industry supply and demand in an important position.
It is worth noting that Taiwanese manufacturers and South Korean factories are also dynamically scheduling production according to demand, promoting the industry's utilization rate to continue to move towards a benign track. According to Omdia monitoring data, the operating rates of LG Display and AUO Optoelectronics in the fourth quarter were both shrinking quarter-on-quarter, among which: Taiwanese manufacturer AUO Optical Corporation's operating rate is estimated to be 59% in the fourth quarter, down 20 percentage points from the previous quarterLG Display's operating rate in the fourth quarter was 72%, down 3 percentage points from the previous quarter. In this context, as terminal demand continues to consume existing inventories, it is estimated that TV and MNT inventories have dropped from a healthy level to a low level.
lcdThe medium-term supply and demand situation of panels may reverse, and it is expected to maintain profitability through the off-season
Analysts believe that the supply cut may improve the supply and demand situation of LCD panels in the off-season, and may even usher in a reversal of the relationship between supply and demand, so that the LCD market can smoothly pass the traditional off-season.
According to the statistical analysis of relevant institutions, the LCD production capacity of Chinese mainland panel manufacturers accounts for more than 70% of the world, which has a significant impact on the panel industry
In addition, although the global LCD has been declining since the end of October, the decline has been relatively modest, and the overall LCD has continued to operate at a relatively high level. Another analyst believes that judging from the Q3 financial reports of TCL Technology, BOE and Rainbow Co., Ltd., the average LCD price in the Q3 quarter has made major panel manufacturers enter the normal profit range. In the fourth quarter of this year and even the first quarter of next year, the average LCD price is expected to continue to remain above the profitability of panel manufacturers.
Considering the impact of a series of expected factors such as the continuous outbreak of the current OLED market, the stability of the LCD off-season, and the gradual entry of the industry into the peak demand season after Q2, we believe that TCL Technology, BOE and other major panel manufacturers are still worth looking forward to in the next medium and long-term overall performance, and the foundation for the comprehensive recovery of the panel industry is continuing to consolidate. The above-mentioned analyst said.