[Value Catalog]: Research Report Center with Views.
Green hydrogen, that is, hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy, is called green hydrogen because it has no net carbon emissions. Green hydrogen chemical industry, that is, chemical industry with green hydrogen as raw material, the main products at this stage are synthetic ammonia and methanol.
In 2024, or the first year of green hydrogen chemical industry, the first batch of green hydrogen chemical projects may be completed in 2024. Before 2022, most of China's green hydrogen chemical projects stayed in scientific research such as university research, enterprise alliances and platform establishment, and there were few specific demonstration projects. Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in green hydrogen chemical projects, and most of them are equipped with ammonia or methanol plants on the basis of green hydrogen projects. As of nowThe total investment in green hydrogen chemical projects has exceeded 300 billion yuan.
Driving force: Why do companies enter the green hydrogen chemical industry at this point in time?
The company's current entry into the green hydrogen chemical industry is mainly caused by the superposition of three reasons: 1The gradual maturity of technology has reduced the cost of green hydrogen chemical industry, and the commercial value of green hydrogen chemical industry has gradually become prominent2.New energy is inherently unstable, the energy storage market space is broad, and green hydrogen chemical industry provides an energy storage solution with great potential3.Green hydrogen chemical industry has been encouraged by the policy. On the one hand, green hydrogen chemical industry can create new market demand, and on the other hand, it can allow enterprises to develop in fields where traditional processes such as synthetic ammonia and methanol are limited, and there is a broad space for development.
Principle: Why is green hydrogen chemical industry mainly based on synthetic ammonia and methanol at this stage?
The green hydrogen chemical technology is very similar to the coal chemical technology, and the basic technologies of both are the production of syngas and the adjustment of syngas ratio. Ammonia and methanol are the basic products of coal chemical industry, through which about three-quarters of coal chemical products are synthesized. Therefore, at this stage, the layout of green hydrogen chemical industry to produce synthetic ammonia and methanol can not only seize the opportunity of green hydrogen chemical industry to accumulate technical experience, but also do not affect the subsequent extension of high value-added products.
Prospects: How big is the market space for green hydrogen chemicals?
The first stage is to cut into the existing coal chemical market and the 100 billion market: The first stage of green hydrogen chemical industry is likely to cut into the existing synthetic ammonia and methanol markets and use new processes to produce old products. At this stage, green hydrogen chemical industry is expected to be the first to make breakthroughs in areas with abundant green power resources. According to our estimates, the market space at this stage is about 100 billion yuan, and the investment amount is about one trillion yuan.
Phase 2, creating new demand, trillion-dollar market: Phase 2 may be achieved by meeting the market demand that is now available but cannot be met. For example, industries such as shipping and civil aviation need low-cost green fuels, and new energy urgently needs low-cost large-scale energy storage facilities.
In the third stage, a new paradigm of chemical industry will be created, and the sea of stars will be borne: green hydrogen chemical industry has the potential to replace fossil energy and become a resource at the front end of the chemical industry chain. At this stage, polyolene, polyester, nylon and other materials required for human production and life can be produced by green hydrogen chemical industry.
Progress: How is the progress of the industry?
Chinese enterprises are the world's leading companies in green hydrogen chemical industry. The position of Chinese enterprises in green hydrogen chemical industry can be divided into four categories, with different logics: pioneers, the pursuit of the first to build production capacity;Pioneer, the pursuit of downstream high value-added products extension;Heavyweight, not the fastest, but fast and sizable;Those who wait and see, first lay out upstream resources, wait for the midstream technology to mature, and choose the opportunity to enter the market.
Investment advice: Focus on opportunities for first-mover companies
It is recommended to pay attention to the leading green hydrogen chemical construction such as China Energy Construction, which is expected to benefit from the green hydrogen chemical construction stageIt is recommended to pay attention to the pioneers and pioneers of green hydrogen chemical industry such as Baofeng Energy and Dongfang Shenghong, which are expected to take the lead in the wave of green hydrogen chemical industryIt is recommended to pay attention to the wait-and-see people in the green hydrogen chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, and have sufficient green power resources to wait for the time to move, or they can catch up.
"Basic Chemical Industry - Green Hydrogen Chemical Industry Topic: The Sea of Stars, the Future Has Come" - Yangtze River** [Matthew, Wei Kai, Zhang Chi] - 20231224 [Page 25].