Two days ago, Volkswagen shut down its important manual transmission production base in China, marking the end of its life.
In the past 10 years, the rapid rise of automatic transmissions has brought a more convenient, more convenient, more economical and worry-free experience to the life of family cars.
Take a step back to look at the current passenger car market, major brands are quickly abandoning manual transmissions, and the economic market within 100,000 began to abandon manual transmissions.
It is difficult for more than 100,000 passenger cars to choose manual transmissions, and the new transmission architecture in the field of fuel vehicles, based on dual-clutch, AT, and CVT, is rapidly promoting the development of the high-quality passenger car market.
The change in the concept of market consumption has begun to make people give up manual transmission, because the automatic transmission is very economical, reliable and stable, and the model ** is also constantly being lowered, and the manual transmission is perfectly replaced.
To sum up, manual transmissions that are too primitive and mechanical are not necessary in the current passenger car market.
In the past 10 years, we have eliminated a lot of technology, and new products have replaced the old technology, bringing a better sense of experience to our car life, such as mobile phone maps instead of electronic dogs, Kailide navigation, and large central control screens instead of CD machines.
It can be seen that in today's rapid development of electrification, the traditional three major parts of the gearbox, engine and four-wheel drive system will also be quickly abandoned.
The combination of motor and battery brings a completely different sense of experience, and this year's new energy market sales will reach 6.5 million, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 30%.
In other words, the market share of the traditional transmission industry has been reduced by 30%, which is why Volkswagen will close the manual transmission factory, and some people will think about when the next plant will be closed.
In fact, not only the gearbox, but also the operation status of engine companies is also very unoptimistic, including commercial vehicles. Electric hybrid systems are gradually replacing conventional engines.
Not only do companies have to deal with a tight market, but they also have to redesign their engines, reducing revenues and increasing R&D costs.
Facing this embarrassing situation, there are also four-wheel drive systems, BorgWarner, ZF, GKN and other four-wheel drive system manufacturers are also facing new challenges, and the development of electric motors is also replacing the traditional four-wheel drive system.
The emergence of front and rear axle motors can create electric four-wheel drive vehicles, and the sales of urban four-wheel drive systems will inevitably be affected, with the development of electrification, in fact, what we can see is that Tesla, BYD and other companies through new design methods, not only bypassed the technical blockade of traditional four-wheel drive systems, but also opened the door to a new world.
The road performance of electric four-wheel drive is stronger, acceleration is faster, and reliability is higher, which means that the development of mechanical four-wheel drive is gloomy on the road to electrification in the future.