Wen Zimu team.
Foreword: I haven't updated the article much during this time, and many readers said in the background that Mr. Zimu disappeared ......Haha hasn't disappeared, it's just that there's nothing to write about during this time. At the end of the year, I went to several cities and met some old friends, from all walks of life, and a very interesting phenomenon is that in the past, at the wine table, the Internet, real estate, and manufacturing industries liked to fight with each other and look at each other unpleasantly.
This year, everyone shook hands and made peace, since everyone is not doing well, it is better to have new and old grudges together, drink a few more glasses.
Everyone still has some expectations for next year, and they are bright, but at the same time, they are more worried that the economy will have to fight stagflation.
This sentence sounds right, but there are two typos.
Looking at several cities, the most severe drop is Nanjing, many areas of housing prices have fallen back to 2016, should be the worst this year.
An Anhui old iron said that the original Anhui villagers regarded Nanjing as their hometown, and they were ruthless, and they ran over to speculate in the house, but now they are so bad that they don't even have pants left.
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are okay, and there are red plates in Shenzhen and Hangzhou, but they are all upside down, and there is no reference value.
In short, high-quality cities are already building the bottom, but how to build them, after building them, or to open the floor and cellars, we can only wait for the next policy and economic trends.
During this time, those who have the intention to buy a house should first wait and see, take a look and not be in a hurry, of course, it is not that they do not pay attention to the property market at all, but during this time, they will improve their cognition more, and spend a few minutes every day to learn those basic logic and concepts.
The following are some dry goods, to share with you, more suitable for Xiaobai students who have just read the property market, they feel that they already know about it, you can skip it and not read it, just like it at the end of the article.
The following is the main text:
Recently, NetEase Digital read and released a set of data on the "decay of Chinese communities", which resonated with owners. According to statistics, more than 65% of the houses in Chinese households were built before 2010. According to the online saying that "the life span of Chinese communities is only 10 years", most of the communities on the market have gone into decline. However, if you have done many years of urban research like me, and have looked at thousands of neighborhoods, you will find that it is very narrow to consider the "decay of neighborhoods" in terms of time alone. I have seen more than one city, the 15-year-old community is clean and tidy, and the buildings do not show the sense of age, while the 3-5-year-old sub-new housing community next door, the garbage is littered and the lawn is bald, and the eyes are entering the twilight years. In fact, a house, like a person, does not look old, depending on many aspects. Here are a few real stories to share with you, and you will understand what kind of house and what kind of community are not easy to decay, and the rate of decay is also obviously linked to the trend of housing prices. The original choice was probably in 2016, when I met a reader who was consulting to buy a house, named Xiao Zhao. Xiao Zhao is a typical post-80s Shanghai Piao, graduated from university seven or eight years ago, came to Shanghai to work hard, caught up with the industry dividend period, opened a good scale company, and ranked among the middle class. At that time, Xiao Zhao was going to buy a house and get married, although it was the first house, he did not plan to settle, the appeal was to maintain and increase the value, hoping to have the opportunity to change to a better house in the future. I am very supportive of Xiao Zhao's idea. However, he has never bought a house, and his cognition of the assets in his hand and his future planning are relatively "ignorant". Naturally, it is very difficult to choose a room. I told him that in addition to the factors that must be considered such as location and supporting facilities, we should also pay attention to the "depreciation speed" of the community, which is related to whether it is good to sell in the future. One of the most simple ways to tell is to look at the façade. At that time, Xiao Zhao planned to buy a house near Zhoupu, and there were two communities to choose from, one was a new Chinese style with a small courtyard, and the other was a glass curtain wall with public greenery. After Xiao Zhao looked at the model house, he was crazy obsessed with the new Chinese style, to be precise, he fell in love with the small courtyard, thinking that he would plant some flowers and plants in the future, and raise dogs to drink tea in the yard. In fact, I have reservations about the new Chinese style. It's not that the new Chinese style is bad, but the good new Chinese style has too high construction requirements and much more maintenance costs than conventional commercial houses. For example, for the façade, most developers will use stone paint instead of marble to reduce construction costs, and the difference may not be visible in the short term, but it is easy to age over time. At the same time, the self-managed courtyard is a great test of the owner's financial resources and energy, considering the overall greening of the community, the family is determined to maintain the courtyard for a long time, which is far from enough. But Xiao Zhao didn't listen to it in the end, according to his logic, he said that he didn't forget his original intention, and the new Chinese style was better ......Some time ago, Xiao Zhao suddenly found me and said that the problems I had reminded me had happened. The exterior wall of the house has been washed by rain for several years, and has been yellowed and discolored, the courtyard was fine for the first few years, and then most of the owners did not have the patience to continue to take care of it. When the house was hung, Xiao Zhao was also poured cold water by the intermediary: in the same location, because of the environmental problems of the community, the ** of one square meter is a big difference from another community. In the chat, Xiao Zhao regretted it and asked me if I could help him think of a way. But at this point, it's hard for me to suggest, I can only comfort him that at least he stepped on the right time and location, and less profit is not a loss. The façade is a penny for the price, and the basic 1:1 corresponds to the quality of the community, so you should ask more when you buy it. The second story of the people in the house is more interesting, it is last week with a friend who is a real estate agent to have tea, talk about the environmental problems of the community, he said: In the past two years, I have asked customers to take me, and I am not afraid of running into the old community, but I am even more afraid of encountering the new community of "flooding of boarding houses". Because there are many boarding houses, even if it is a new community for 3-5 years, most of them are in tatters, and sometimes they have a good chat with customers, and when they enter the community, there is no follow-up. Reminds me of a controversy about business districts. Since a long time ago, some readers have asked me: is it better to buy a house as close to the business district as possible, and the more shopping malls nearby, the better?If you look at it from the perspective of convenience alone, this is indeed the case. But from the perspective of the actual living experience, it is not. The closer it is to the business district, the more likely it is for the housing to be eroded by the bad parts of the business district. For example, last year, a couple of university teachers approached me for advice on buying a house, and the man called him Professor Zhang, and their appeal was to sell the house they had before replacing it with a new one. When I got the information about the old house, I was a little puzzled. The house is not old, just over 5 years, the house is located in a very good location, near Wuhan Optics Valley Square, there is a subway, there is a business district, and the house is very close to the work unit of the two people, Huake University, and it is convenient to commute. Why do you have to change such a house in a hurry?After asking a few times, Professor Zhang explained the reason: "I really don't want to see someone shaking around with two tits exposed...... again.""Upstairs and downstairs of Professor Zhang, there are tenants from the nearby pedestrian street, and these tenants are dressed more "trendy" on weekdays, according to the old professor, which has seriously impacted his traditional perception of beauty. In addition, because of the nature of work, tenants often come home late at night, and when they come home, they are not honest, jumping around with high heels, and the two of them can't sleep. I complained to the property many times, but the person was a tenant and didn't care at all. At first, Professor Zhang thought it was a special situation, but later inquired, there were many tenants in other buildings and pedestrian streets in this community. Tenants have no awareness of the protection of the house and the community itself, garbage is littered, smoking and spitting in the elevator, and after a long time, the community looks chaotic. Professor Zhang said that he didn't really discriminate against other people's jobs, but he felt that it was difficult for people from two worlds to live and communicate together. And like them, there were a lot of teachers who bought houses here, but in the past two years, because of this problem, most of them have moved out. Too many tenants force high-quality residents to move out, and then more tenants pour in, eventually creating a vicious circle. This situation is not uncommon in many communities with a lot of boarding houses and relocated housing communities, and from another point of view, this is actually a circle effect. Thousands of dollars buy a house, and thousands of dollars choose neighbors. The fate of a community is closely related to the people who live in it. The ability of managers Every time I go out to sit on Didi, I like to chat with the driver. Drivers carry a lot of passengers, and they are exposed to a lot of information and stories every day. Some time ago, I met a particularly capable master and told me about such a thing: he finally saved money to buy a suite in his hometown a few years ago, but the developer ran away with the money, and the house became an unfinished house. Fortunately, someone took over the project later, and although it was a few years late, he still got the key to the house. The master was happy, and after a simple decoration, he moved in. After a few days, he found out that something was wrong, because his house was on the middle floor, and almost every day there was a sound of clattering and smashing walls downstairs, and sometimes it was still under construction at night, which caused many residents to be dissatisfied. The master also looked for the property several times to reflect the situation, but every time the property came, it was to say good things to the mud, and the master had a total in his heart: forget it, it was not easy to be the owner of the unfinished building before, and he was in a hurry to decorate and live in, and he could understand. As a result, one night, something big happened. The master came home from work, ready to wash and rest, and when he was brushing his teeth, he suddenly saw a crack ...... next to the mirrorI'm scared.,There's been no ** recently.,Why is the house suddenly going to collapse.。。 After hurriedly getting dressed and going downstairs, there were already many residents pointing and pointing, and when they looked closely, a deep crack appeared on the side of the entire building. Immediately looking for the property, after investigation, it turned out that because of the decoration on the second floor, the entire load-bearing wall was smashed. First it was unfinished, and then it became a dangerous building, the master was bitter, and took people to the second floor every day to defend his rights, but the family on the second floor ran away overnight, and he didn't know where to go. The master inquired and found out that the property manager of the community was the brother-in-law of the owner on the second floor. No wonder no one cares about the decoration of his house at night, and he still sympathizes with them, and the master regrets it. But things have happened, the house is completely uninhabitable, and it is too late to regret it. I went to the construction team and gave feedback that the quality of the building itself was not good, and it was knocked heavily, resulting in abnormal staircase structure, even if it was reinforced, there was no guarantee that it would not collapse. In this way, the master lived in fear for 2 years and moved out of there, and the house could not be sold no matter how cheap it was, because no one wanted to live in a dilapidated house... There are a considerable number of residential properties in China, which are contracted by developers, and the capacity is uneven. Readers often complain in the background, saying that their own property, except for having two guards and a few cleaners, doesn't care about anything else. When collecting money, he is the most active, and he will be strained as soon as he does something. The green belt is either bare and grassless, or the weeds are three feet high, and the owners have reported many times before arranging people to prune them;In the community, no one cares about walking dogs without leashes, and there are piles of dog poop in the east and west, and no one cleans them. Some people even installed a circle of parking occupants in the green belt, which was used as their own parking space for more than a year, and the property ignored it. In fact, the longevity of the community, to a large extent, is determined by these details, how long it can be "young", and the ability of the property is very important. Whether it is natural depreciation or human factors, the decay of the community is an inevitable result. But a good house must have its own anti-aging ability. Like people, Lin Chiling can't go back to the age of eighteen, but she can live a far more delicate life than her peers, all we can do is to judge through multiple factors, grasp the cycle of the rise and fall of the life of the house, and look for more certainty.