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It seems that the United States is already a little unable to hold on.
This time, unlike the United States, the situation is different.
According to the past law, the United States has raised interest rates to this point, and even if the countries of the world do not bleed, they will have to shed their skin.
But this time, everyone was surprisingly peaceful.
A long time ago, the U.S. economy began to have some problems, but the plate spread out wide, and everyone naturally did not notice it.
The U.S. inflation rate has been high, and raising interest rates has not had a significant effect on reducing inflation, but may increase the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy.
In addition, the U.S. fiscal deficit is becoming increasingly serious, and the fiscal pressure is increasing. This is not in line with the fact that consumer spending has leveled off, which is good news for the economy to normalize.
And most importantly, stability. The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened, and social discontent is high. But it is in this context that the aftermath of the US mask is still ongoing, and the US economy is slowly recovering.
The United States still uses the old routine to keep raising interest rates to attract capital, and then start a war to expel funds to avoid risks.
For this kind of operation, the United States has indeed been caught, but if you look at the data now, it can be seen that inflation in the United States has improved a lot, and it seems that it is indeed stable and improving.
But the most critical step went wrong, and the rest of the world was surprisingly quiet.
So, the capitals are quieter.
Take a look at the historical operation of the United States
Historically, the U.S. economy has experienced six rounds of interest rate hike cycles from the 80s of the 20th century to 2021, which is manifested in the Federal Reserve to curb economic overheating by raising federal interest rates, usually by raising interest rates multiple times and raising interest rates continuously.
The current rate hike cycle began on March 17, 2022, with the federal** interest rate ceiling target raised from 025% to 475%, the largest rate hike since 1980. This move has had a profound impact on the U.S. and global economy.
But it is clear that the success of interest rate hikes does not necessarily mean a boom in the economy.
Truth be told, if interest rate hikes fail to curb inflation, then the U.S. economy may be at greater risk.
For example, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the bank expects the economy to slow but not to recession. And interest rate hikes may increase the cost of enterprises, reduce the profits of enterprises, and even lead to the bankruptcy of enterprises. And most seriously, interest rate hikes may lead to the bursting of asset bubbles and lead to instability in financial markets.
In short, once the U.S. fails to raise interest rates, the U.S. may face a series of crises such as rising inflation, corporate bankruptcies, and financial market chaos.
At that time, the US economy will face the risk of a total collapse.
The United States, which has not yet been able to complete the interest rate hike cycle, is in dire straits.
What's next for the United States?
Of course, I won't sit and wait.
Judging from the current situation, the U.S. interest rate hike this time is definitely going to end in failure. However, whether the United States is willing to continue to hold on to itself at this embarrassing time is the choice of the United States.
But I have to say that it's useless to hold on, it's better to quit early and stop losses in time.
Let's see what the U.S. might do again.
History can give us some references.
The future inflation situation in the United States will depend on a number of factors. The first is the global economic situation, the global economic recovery will directly affect the energy and chain situation, and then affect the inflation rate in the United States.
Second, the adjustment of monetary and fiscal policy in the United States will also have an impact on inflation. Finally, technological progress and production efficiency are also key to inflation.
If the Fed fails to raise interest rates, the U.S. may take the following steps:
The first is certainly to bite the bullet and continue to raise interest rates: the Fed may continue to raise interest rates if it believes that the current level of interest rates is not enough to curb inflation.
This could push interest rates higher even further, negatively impacting the economy.
Therefore, judging from the current situation, the likelihood of the United States continuing to raise interest rates is still relatively small.
The second is to adjust monetary policy: the Fed may adjust monetary policy to better control inflation. This may include measures such as changing the amount of money and adjusting the structure of interest rates.
Or fiscal policy can be implemented: Fiscal policy measures may be taken to control inflation. This could include measures such as spending cuts, tax increases, and more.
One of the most strenuous and idealistic is to stimulate the economy and boost economic growth in a variety of ways: if the Fed believes that inflation is caused by a slowdown, it may take steps to boost economic growth. This may include measures to encourage companies to increase investment and reduce taxes.
To be honest, these historical practices are not easy to use in this environment.
The world is quiet and peaceful, and there is no hope at all in this financial war of the United States, and it is impossible to complete the next step, that is, to avoid danger by expelling funds.
Once it moves towards active sabotage, who will detonate the crisis?
To be honest, with the Xi of the United States, once there is a problem with itself, it is probably that no one in the world will be better.
If the U.S. economy faces a collapse, globalization will be the first thing to be challenged.
Decoupling is probably the most likely thing for the United States to do. To put it bluntly, it is sanctions and sanctions.
Although the United States is unwilling to admit the trend of globalization, it has always dreamed of being a dominant company. But it has to be said that globalization has long penetrated into every system in the world, and even if the United States does not admit it, it cannot be denied that complete decoupling is impractical at present.
So the United States can only increase its own initiative in the global ** as much as possible.
The initiative of the United States in the global world is basically realized by relying on the hegemony of the dollar. But as things stand, the world is actively de-dollarizing.
This is a necessary move based on the economic situation in the United States, and it is also a rational move made by other countries to avoid risks.
However, U.S. debt is now spread all over the world, and once the U.S. has no way out, it is not impossible to take the initiative to detonate a large-scale financial crisis and directly eliminate all U.S. debt and currency.
After all, the United States has always been like this.
Everyone is aware of this trend. Therefore, it can be seen that in recent years, countries around the world have been selling US bonds on a large scale in the hope of reducing losses.
Because once the United States withdraws salaries from the bottom of the kettle, then these US debts in our hands will become a pile of waste paper, worthless.
It can only be said that the U.S. economy has now reached a critical period of development, and as for what the U.S. will do in the later stage, we can only approximate it, but selling U.S. bonds in a timely manner and preparing for a showdown must be necessary to deal with all actions of the United States.