In 2023, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved gratifying results in many aspects. The output of the main links of the industrial chain will continue to grow, the speed of technology iteration will be further accelerated, and the global leading position will be achieved, the scale of the photovoltaic market will continue to expand, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach a record high. Cao Renxian, chairman of Sungrow, said at the 2023 annual conference of the photovoltaic industry held a few days ago.
Industry experts pointed out that the bottleneck of the future development of the photovoltaic industry is not in the manufacturing of photovoltaic products, but in the last few items of the entire power system. Photovoltaic power generation should play the role of "main power source" in the future, and systematic collaborative innovation is urgently needed.
Photovoltaic power generation urgently needs systematic collaborative innovation
Photovoltaic power generation has become the fastest growing renewable energy in the world. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), renewable energy accounted for 30% of global electricity generation in 2022, and by 2030, the installed capacity of renewable energy will increase by 24 times, the proportion of electricity generation will rise to nearly 50%, of which, about 95% of the growth will come from solar photovoltaic and wind energy. According to **, by 2023, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will increase from 1055GW in 2022 to 5457GW.
Over the past 20 years, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and the goal of achieving three times or more installed capacity will soon be achieved. China's photovoltaic products, whether it is conversion efficiency, cost, production capacity, or the best chain, have been achieved to the extreme. Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Shangmai New Energy, said with emotion that in the future, photovoltaic power generation should be the "main power supply", and the bottleneck is not in the manufacture of photovoltaic products, but in the latter few items of the entire power system, transmission, distribution and delivery, and it is not yet possible to fully adapt to the situation of a large number of intermittent energy sources such as photovoltaic wind energy and a large proportion of the Internet.
The biggest opportunity for the photovoltaic industry at present is that the cost is low enough, and the next two biggest problems facing development are the sustainable development of consumption and scale. Canadian Solar's President Zhuang Yan also said.
According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2022, 87 new photovoltaic installations in China will be added41GW, up 59% year-on-year3%, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years. According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, from January to November this year, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity increased by 16388GW, another record high. Such a large-scale new installation of power has put a lot of pressure on the safe operation of the power grid system.
Chen Guoguang, President of Huawei's Digital Power Smart PV Product Line, pointed out that at present, the primary concern of centralized power stations is not the cost of electricity, but the consumption of the power grid. From a technical point of view, in the past, when the inverter of a photovoltaic power station was connected in parallel with the medium-voltage grid, a current source was used, which was a way to supplement electricity, and it was essentially impossible to adjust the grid voltage and frequency. In order to achieve rapid growth in the future, this control model must be changed.
Energy transition is a systematic project that cannot be achieved overnight. At present, we are still adapting based on the original system, and in the future, we need to make some innovations to the whole system. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy, said frankly that this requires the coordinated promotion of all participants, not only photovoltaic companies to do work, but also power grid planning and design, system and mechanism design.
Photovoltaic and storage synergy may open the "ceiling" of the market
In the context of the integration of source, grid, load and storage, "photovoltaic + energy storage" has become the main force of energy transformation.
Energy storage can largely solve the problem of spatio-temporal mismatch of new energy, solve the pressure of power grid consumption and break through the bottleneck of photovoltaic installation. The new energy installation mode of photovoltaic and storage synergy can open the market ceiling and will become the key to the development of new energy in the next stage and the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, pointed out.
Zheng Ajun, vice president of Kehua Digital Energy, remains optimistic about the development prospects of energy storage. He pointed out that cost is the key to the development of energy storage. In the cost of energy storage systems, the largest proportion is the cost of battery cells, which exceeds 60%. This year, the battery cell ** has fallen sharply, bringing a short-term foreseeable decline in the cost of energy storage systems. On the whole, with the update and iteration of energy storage technology and the advent of large-capacity cells, high-power and large-capacity energy storage system solutions will become a development trend, which means that the cost of single-watt-hour energy storage systems is getting lower and lower.
Talking about the current business model of energy storage systems, Zheng Ajun believes that "independent shared energy storage" is one of the effective ways to realize the benefits of energy storage systems, and the benefits are more obvious. "The business model of independent shared energy storage is relatively flexible, with a variety of benefit models such as capacity leasing, peak and frequency regulation, grid dispatching, and peak-to-valley electricity price differentialIn addition, independent shared energy storage is relatively mature in terms of scale and standardization, and from the perspective of the early planning, engineering design, equipment configuration, and later operation and maintenance of the entire energy storage power station, independent shared energy storage has a lower comprehensive cost than simple photovoltaic or wind power distribution and storage. Zheng Ajun said.
According to the statistics of the China Electricity Council, about 338gw/7.25GWh, of which photovoltaic distribution and storage is the mainstay, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shandong, Xinjiang and other provinces with high installed capacity of new energy.
Cao Renxian said that in 2023, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved gratifying results in many aspects, but the problems and challenges faced by the industry continue to exist, and it is necessary to adhere to the win-win concept from four aspects and strengthen innovation and collaboration. First, we must attach importance to innovation and development, promote technological breakthroughs and progress, improve energy efficiency, and reduce our own carbon emissionsSecond, it is necessary to strengthen industrial integration, coordinate with upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, realize industrial upgrading and optimization, and accelerate the construction of a new power system that integrates "optical storage, terminal information".Third, we must promote the green and intelligent development of the industry to consolidate and enhance the global competitive advantage, rather than simply expanding production capacityFourth, we should attach importance to international development, and enterprises should strengthen international cooperation and expand overseas markets.
Author丨Zhang WeijiaEditor丨Zhao ChenmeiEditor丨Maria Producer丨Lian Xiaodong