What we are sharing today is [2023 Commercial Real Estate Industry Review and 2024 Credit Risk Outlook] Report Producer: United Credit.
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(1) Development and investment
In recent years, affected by factors such as macroeconomic pressure, sluggish consumer demand and the overall tightening of financing in the real estate industry, the prosperity of commercial real estate development and investment has entered a downward channel. In the third quarter of 2023, China's real GDP growth rate will be 49%, down from 6 in the second quarter3%, business and household confidence is still insufficientOn this basis, the decline in overall real estate development investment continued to expand on the basis of the first half of the year. In terms of commercial real estate, in January 2023, the investment in the development of commercial business buildings was completed at 6,8915.4 billion yuan, with a new construction area of 5368960,000 square meters, down 1730% and 2320%；The investment in the development of office buildings was 3,7939.5 billion yuan, with a new construction area of 2143350,000 square meters, down 11 percent year-on-year00% and 2000%。
(2) Sales end
In January and October 2023, the sales prosperity of commercial business buildings remained low, and the sales prosperity of office buildings fell sharply. Despite the recovery of the consumer market, due to the economic downturn and the expected decline in residents' income, coupled with the fierce competition and operational difficulty of physical commercial stock projects, the sales of commercial business buildings continued to decline in January and October 2023, but the decline narrowed. The overall downward trend in macroeconomic sentiment and rental levels has put greater pressure on office sales, which fell sharply in January and October 2023.
(3) Supply and demand
2020 In 2022, the scale and progress of commercial real estate development investment have been affected to a certain extent due to factors such as travel restrictions and the deterioration of the financing environment in the real estate industry, except for 2021, when the completion sales ratio of office buildings was slightly more than 1 times, the completion sales ratio of commercial business buildings and office buildings in the rest of the year decreased to less than 1 time, but the overall oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved. In January and October 2023, the completed sales of commercial buildings and office buildings continued to decline compared with 2022, and the sluggish development investment made the first end shrink. In the future, with the increase in the number of new products and the downward impact of macroeconomic growth, commercial real estate will continue to face the pressure of new digestion and survival of the fittest.
—Beijing—
On the whole, there is still a big gap between the current commercial real estate boom in Beijing and the level of 2019. In the third quarter of 2023, the first-floor rent of high-quality retail properties in Beijing decreased by 3% year-on-year54% to 327 yuan per square meter per day；Rent levels for prime office space** to 2956 yuan per square meter per month, down to the lowest point since 2012. In terms of vacancy rate, the vacancy rate of prime office buildings and prime retail properties in the third quarter of 2023 increased compared with the second quarter, and the vacancy rate of office buildings exceeded 20%.
—Shanghai—
In terms of retail properties, the rental level of high-quality retail properties in Shanghai was basically stable in the third quarter of 2023, with a slight increase in the vacancy rate. In terms of office space, the rent level of high-quality office space in Shanghai has been reduced to 269Around 6 yuan per square meter per month, the vacancy rate has gradually increased since 2023, close to the historical peak.
—Guangzhou—
In terms of retail properties, the rental level of retail properties in Guangzhou has been steadily declining in the past decade, and the vacancy rate has dropped to below 6% in the third quarter of 2019, but since 2020, due to the external environment, the vacancy rate has decreased but is still high. In terms of office buildings, in the past decade, the office property market in Guangzhou has been relatively generous, especially since 2016, the supply has exceeded demand, the rent level has risen, and the vacancy rate has dropped sharply in 2019.
In the second and third quarters, the vacancy rate of high-quality office buildings in Guangzhou was as low as 490%。However, since 2020, the rental level of high-quality office buildings in Guangzhou has dropped slightly, and the vacancy rate has increased more, reaching about 17 in the third quarter of 20235%, but the vacancy rate is still slightly lower than that of other first-tier cities.
—Shenzhen—
In the third quarter of 2023, the vacancy rate of both retail and office buildings in Shenzhen has increased, and rents have not stopped falling. The vacancy rate of high-quality retail properties in Shenzhen in the third quarter of 2023 was 490%, which is the lowest level among first-tier cities, but rent levels continue to decline. In terms of office buildings, since the end of 2018, Shenzhen's office market has ended a high boom that has lasted for many years, and the vacancy rate has increased sharply by about 10 percentage points in the following year, and the vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 will be 207%, and the rent level is still in a continuous downward channel.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any investment advice from us. To use the information, please refer to the original report. ）
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