In 2023, the revenue of the domestic game market will exceed 300 billion yuan for the first time, which is the data released at the annual meeting of the game industry just past. But a piece of news at noon on December 22 shocked the industry.
The official website of the National Press and Publication Administration issued a notice on soliciting opinions on the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)", to solicit comments from the public.
Screenshot of the webpage.
There are a total of 64 detailed rules for the Measures on the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Solicitation of Comments"), covering the protection of minors, business norms, version number management, game payment, and so forth. Among them, Article 18 of the draft, "restricting excessive use and high consumption of games", has become the focus of industry discussion.
On the 22nd, the A-share online game sector opened sharply in the afternoon, and Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Youzu Network, and Giant Network fell to the limit. According to Choice data, the total market value of the A-share game sector evaporated by more than 43 billion yuan in one day. Hong Kong stock NetEase (HK09999, stock price 122.).00 Hong Kong dollars, market value 393.3 billion Hong Kong dollars) fell 2460%, Tencent Holdings (HK00700, stock price 274.).HK$00, market capitalization 2HK$61 trillion) fell more than 1235%, Bilibili (HK09626, stock price 80.).HK$30, market capitalization 333HK$500 million) fell by more than 10%.
Tencent, XD Company, Century Huatong, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Giant Network, Perfect World and other companies have all stated that they attach importance to the construction of a healthy game ecology and actively cooperate with the competent authorities to seek truth from facts and give feedback on the draft for comments. At the same time, "spare no effort to increase the intensity of going to sea, but also to improve the boutique business". The reporter of "Daily Economic News" also learned that the relevant units of the industry will organize relevant enterprise research and collect relevant voices and suggestions from the industry.
The first release of the draft for comments was at 11:23 on December 22, close to the morning, and it did not attract much attention at first. But the Hong Kong market was the first to react: one is Tencent Holdings, and the other is NetEase.
Tencent Holdings' stock price began to dive at 11:30 a.m. and fell by 717%；NetEase fell even more, down 12% as of midday**.
At 13 o'clock, A-shares opened, and game stocks went straight down. In just a few minutes, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Shengtian Network, Glacier Network, Baotong Technology, Shenzhou Taiyue, Tianzhou Culture, Shunwang Technology, etc. all fell by more than 10%, and some were even 20%. According to Choice data, the total market value of the A-share game sector evaporated by more than 43 billion yuan in one day.
At the same time, a number of A-share game ETFs encountered intraday limits. In the first half of 2023, gaming ETFs are the first to double. After the 22nd drop limit, the annual gain of the game ETF has narrowed to 3359%。
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, as of December 22**, NetEase fell 2460%, Tencent Holdings fell 1235%, Bilibili** nearly 10%. Among the game stocks in Hong Kong stocks, including CMGE (HK00302, stock price 1.).HK$19, market capitalization 32HK$7.6 billion), XD Company (HK02400, stock price 8HK$99, market capitalization 43HK$1.9 billion), iDreamSky (HK01119, stock price 2.HK$14, market capitalization 33HK$700 million) fell by more than 10%.
The two major gaming giants of Hong Kong stocks fell (data**wind).
On December 22, the stock price performance of A-share game companies with a market value of more than 20 billion.
Data**: Wind, Variation: Percentage.
At the 2023 annual meeting of the game industry a week ago, Mr. Wang, a well-known investor in the game industry, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "Although it is not easy for everyone this year, there is still hope on the whole, and it can still be tossed, at least not as hesitant as in previous years." "But just a week later, the industry environment suddenly changed.
Talking about the "Draft for Comments", a number of game investors, industry veterans, and experts all admitted to reporters: "It was very sudden and completely unexpected. The draft is different from previous regulations, which mainly focused on the prevention of addiction among minors, but this time it involves the entire game industry. ”
Mr. Zhang, the game planner, believes that the draft may have a greater impact on transactional "heavy krypton" games (games with a lot of money), and less on big DAUs (daily active users, referred to as daily active users) and content to games. As a victim of the last wave of layoffs in the game industry, he is worried about finding a job next, "If the company cuts off the project, the competition for the same position in the market will be fierce."
Talking about the impact of the draft on new and old game products, Jiang Xiaoxiao, executive director of CIC Consulting, told reporters: "From the perspective of the number of players, the traditional means of attracting new games and the traditional means of maintaining daily activity of old games will be limitedJudging from the recharge flow, it will be difficult to meet the expectations of game manufacturers due to the recharge limit regulations. ”
The Draft for Solicitation of Comments also deals with the management of game license numbers, including "prohibiting the sale, sale, and application of version numbers", and no unit or individual may lend, lease, buy, sell, or apply the "Online Publishing Service Permit", online game approval number, or publication number in any form. After obtaining the approval documents for online games, online game publishing and operation units shall, in accordance with the requirements of the approval documents, organize the publication and operation of the game within one year from the date of issuance of the approval documents, and where they cannot publish and operate within the time limit, they shall promptly explain the reasons in writing to the provincial department in charge of publication.
Liu Xingliang, President of DCCI Internet Research Institute, said: "The one-year validity period of the version number will make game companies more refined and efficient in the development and operation of products, especially for small and medium-sized game companies, the operational pressure will be particularly great, and they may not have enough resources and capabilities to quickly iterate products." ”
Article 18 of the Draft for Comments, which refers to "restricting the excessive use of games and high consumption", has become the focus of heated discussions frequently mentioned by practitioners and industry professionals of major game companies.
In the past, the "recharge limit" was only for minors, but in the Draft for Comments, it is not clear whether the target of "all online games must set a user recharge limit" includes adult consumersThere is also no clear definition of the specific quota.
The recharge limit first depends on the specific implementation, because it was also mentioned in the similar draft for comments in the live broadcast industry before, but in the end, there was no limit when the plan was actually implemented. Because the standards and implementation rules are too difficult to define, how much is considered high?And each consumer's consumption concept and consumption level are also different, how to unify this?These are all up for debate. The above-mentioned Mr. Wang said.
In Jiang Xiaoxiao's view, the most concerned point, that is, "all online games must set user recharge limits", will definitely have a real impact on the commercialization of games. "It is not yet known how much impact this recharge limit will have once it is implemented, but it is inevitable that the turnover and revenue will be affected for game companies. ”
The Draft for Solicitation of Comments also points out that online games must not set up inducing rewards such as daily login, first top-up, and continuous top-up. Mr. Li, a senior analyst who has been studying the game industry for a long time, told reporters: "Restrictions on traditional game operation methods such as 'daily login', as well as user recharge limits, one affects the daily activity and the other affects the ARPU value (average revenue per user), which is equivalent to the two core indicators of game companies will be affected." ”
In the eyes of many industry insiders, "daily login" and "first recharge" are the first door for free game users to convert into paid users.
Why are game companies willing to make profits on the first charge?This is similar to the reduction of the first order of e-commerce. This is the first step to turn a user into a recharge user, and the game company values the value after becoming a paying user. Mr. Wang said frankly that these measures themselves are the most conventional means of operation on the Internet, "You go to the mall every day to check in and sign in there are rewards, and now you are not allowed to use them, which will definitely have an impact on the heavy krypton gold game."
However, as for "you can't set daily login and recharge for the first time", Mr. Xu, an executive of a leading game company, believes that this content does not have much impact on the turnover of the game and the number of new players, and at most affects the retention of the game. "Whether a game is fun or not has little to do with the means of operation. ”
In the view of game industry analyst Zhang Shule, once the "height limit" is implemented, it will affect game companies that adopt the prop payment model, especially the head companies with large market share, such as Tencent and NetEase. He emphasized that avoiding irrational consumption and plugging the huge social controversy that may exist in the game industry is essentially to encourage game manufacturers to retain users through innovative gameplay, rather than using marketing methods to trick users. If the gameplay experience is good enough, why "force" users to clock in through some rewarding means?
The two of the most concerning points mentioned above, if (restricting excessive use of games and high spending) are further extended from minors to adults, will have a huge impact on games that rely on high-paying users. Game companies should change their profit model, such as selling decorations that do not affect the balance of the game**, etc., not relying on top players, relying on small profits but quick turnover. Liu Xingliang said frankly.
As of the 22nd, NetEase's stock price was 2460%, Tencent Holdings fell 1235%, and Bilibili fell nearly 10%. Why did NetEase drop more?"The audience of "Egg Boy Party" is mainly minors. There is a mention in the draft that gacha services cannot be provided for minors, and if a game has a larger audience of minors, it will definitely be more affected. An industry veteran analyzed. But there are also voices that believe: "NetEase has fallen more because the company is more dependent on games." ”
From the financial report data, it can also be seen that NetEase relies on games. According to the third quarter report of 2022, NetEase's net revenue for the quarter was RMB24.4 billion, and the net revenue from games and related value-added services was RMB18.7 billion (US$2.6 billion).According to the third quarter report of 2023, NetEase's net income in the current quarter was 27.3 billion yuan, and the net income of the game sector was 21.8 billion yuan.
All online games must set user recharge limits", reading this sentence in the "Draft for Solicitation of Comments", the first reaction of parent Sun Mingming (pseudonym) was: Isn't it for "Egg Boy Party"?
Sun Mingming, Han Xue (pseudonym) and many other parents told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that their children in the lower grades of primary school were all hooked on "Egg Boy Party" during this year's winter and summer vacations.
It's very popular among elementary school students, everyone is playing, and the shape is also very cute, and it feels like a puzzle game. Sun Mingming said that her child is 10 years old this year, and the official website of "Egg Boy Party" sets the age of players as "8 years old +". Their generation is a veritable online generation, and they have been exposed to the Internet since childhood. My daughter is in the fifth grade, and she also studies very well, and she does her homework every night.
Nine or ten o'clock. When she mentioned that the children in the class were playing "Egg Boy Party", I thought it would be okay to play games appropriately to relax. ”
Egg Boy Party official website.
Han Xue's children were younger when they were exposed to "Egg Boy Party", and this summer, her eldest son just turned 6 and is about to enter the first grade of primary school. "My brother is playing, and my brother (3 years old) is watching from the side. Children also have social appeals, and his classmates are playing, and if he doesn't play, he feels that he has no common language with everyone. ”
Just like the post-85s and post-90s generations have collected "Water Margin Hero" cards in their childhood, and the post-00s want to buy a blind box after school, every popular game is a kind of social currency. And when this social currency is combined with the ** payment system of online games, things get complicated.
It wasn't until one day that he received a monthly bill of 3,800 yuan for Huabei, and Sun Mingming found out that in the two months of summer vacation, his 10-year-old daughter spent 6,000 yuan on "Egg Boy Party".
After asking about his daughter's consumption process in detail, Sun Mingming learned that his daughter spent a lot of money on buying games. "The game of "Egg Boy Party" is drawn in the form of a blind box, and 100 egg coins are drawn once, which is 100 yuan. For example, which ** was launched this season, classmates show off to each other, children also have a desire to compare, and primary school students are even more irrational. The daughter will be eager to have that **, and will keep pumping until she wants it. Centralized consumption is three times, five or six blind boxes are drawn at one time, and more than a dozen small password-free continuous recharges are generated, and nearly 2,000 yuan is consumed. She didn't even realize she was spending money. ”
In fact, "Egg Boy Party" is restricted for minors.
Children over 8 years old can register with their ID cards, and the requirements are strict, and you can only log in for an hour from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays. Sun Mingming thinks that what if she has other arrangements during this time period?Therefore, parents will inevitably agree to register an account with their own information, and they only need to fill in the ID number, or bind the real-name mobile phone through the link to jump, and they can also complete the registration.
As for how her daughter opened password-free payment, Sun Mingming still feels very vague. "Actually, she used my obsolete mobile phone, and the game registered my ID, but when I used that mobile phone, there was no password-free payment function. So I don't know very well how she will operate it in the future, maybe this process is very simple, and the child can get it easily. But I didn't receive a payment prompt, and it wasn't until I received the Huabei bill one day that I realized that she was spending. ”
Later, Sun Mingming asked for a refund on the NetEase parental care platform, and issued a certificate that his daughter used a parental account and paid without the parents' knowledge, and after several twists and turns, he received an 80% recharge refund.
In November of this year, "Egg Boy Party" released "a letter to parents and friends". It stated that in response to the phenomenon of some minors impersonating adults to play games, corresponding measures will be launched. For example, "AI patrol identification technology will continue to be optimized and upgraded." For high-risk users with large recharge behaviors, a pop-up window will be forced for face recognition authentication, and accounts that do not pass the authentication will be locked and unable to play. ”
Mr. Wang, a game investor, told reporters that in reality, it is difficult to completely avoid minors playing games. "For example, a child who is taken care of by his grandparents, the elderly are not as familiar with the Internet as the child, let them take care of this matter, can they manage it?As a technical side, unless you open the camera permission every day, how can it be?”
The spirit of the draft for comments is still to promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry, rather than beating the industry to death with a stick. Mr. Xu, an executive of a leading game company, told reporters.
Tencent said: "The company's current gaming time and consumption data for minors are at the lowest level in history. The draft of the new management measures does not fundamentally change the key elements such as the reasonable business model and operation rhythm of games. The new version of the management measures released by the regulatory authorities this time clarifies the support attitude for the industry, especially in the encouragement of high-quality original games. ”
Century Huatong responded that the company uses technology to prevent minors from "bypassing" anti-addiction and other measures, and implements anti-addiction work in an all-round way. "We will actively cooperate with the competent authorities to provide feedback on the draft for comments, so as to promote the sustainable and high-quality development of the game industry. ”
National Business Daily.