There are several topics of policy that are very important:
From the year will be mainly driven by domestic demand;
Policy formulation: no longer distinguish between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises;
Expanding the middle-income group;
Use fiscal revenues for people's livelihood;
The tax reform will shift from corporate tax to individual income tax
Increase the share of income in the ;
All of these terms reflect a new value orientation: China's economy will shift from investment to consumption
Target: The proportion of the troika
Huang Qifan has provided a model: the proportion of consumption to reach investment for exports
What percentage do we have now?
The proportion of annual consumption in investment is then, the proportion of foreign trade should be the focus of this structural inversion in investment. If you look at the proportion of consumption in the developed countries of the West, the average is and the average proportion of investment is
This shows that we have accepted a structural positioning: the structure of the consumption-oriented economy of the western developed countries is more conducive to the balance of the economy and the sustainability of development.
What are the gains and losses of an investment-based economy?
An investment-based economy is not necessarily inherently problematic.
It is necessary to see whether investment can drive demand, and if there is no demand, investment will become for the sake of investment, which is what Zhang Weiying criticized: If investment is made for the sake of investment, then it is better to build a steel mill and another one.
You can even build a steel mill, add it and tear it down, and add roads to dig and repair, and repair and dig ......What's the point of doing that?
First, the planned goals and tasks were accomplished, although the money from the road construction could have been used to make some other products to earn dollars;Second, the increase in the tax base of the fiscal sector and the decline in the profit margin of enterprises will not affect the fiscal tax revenue, which is determined by China's tax systemThird, it can drive part of the production demand and employment.
However, the problem is also clear: in the characteristic environment of China's dual economic structure, investment is non-neutral, not flowing to efficiency, but neatly to ownership, that is, state-owned enterprises. It's okay politically, it's economically problematic;Because the main resources are given to state-owned enterprises, and the contribution of state-owned enterprises to tax revenue is only half of that of private enterprises, and the support for labor and employment is less than one-tenth of that of private enterprises, which determines that investment is very effective in driving and driving demand and people's livelihood is very limited.
The income of ordinary people is not proportional to the accumulation of wealth, and this is the problem of China.
China's problems are reflected in the data, the growth rate is very good, and other data, such as consumption, industry, profit margins, real estate sales, foreign trade, private enterprises and personal loans, are very tired.
This is the contradiction that China is currently facing with insufficient demand.
With this in mind, if we look at the policies listed at the beginning of the article, we should see the consistency: we need to shift from an investment-oriented economy to a consumption-oriented one.
There are two fundamental problems to be solved
From investment-oriented to consumption-oriented, there are many policy provisions listed above, many of which are goals, not methods, results, and not initial problems.
For example, in tax reform, China is mainly a corporate tax, and the proportion of individual income tax is not enough, and developed countries should account for this This is not a cause, but a consequence, it is impossible to increase the collection of individual income tax on the people, what we need to do is to expand the middle-income group, and the individual income tax can come up. Who will expand the middle-income group?
To pursue all the problems, there are only two fundamental problems, one is to break the boundary between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and the other is to reduce the cost of the system.
Breaking the boundary between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises was proposed by Liu Shijin.
Many people were taken aback when they heard it, thinking that they were going to embezzle national assets again, not that, what Director Liu said was: the policy is no longer anchored by ownership, and state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are treated equally. Breaking the principle of non-neutrality, turning resources to private enterprises with high relevance and high efficiency to people's livelihood, and maintaining employment, can we talk about increasing the proportion of residents' income;in order to shift to a consumption-based economy.
According to Huang Qifan's design, what needs to be solved now is to raise the disposable income of residents from the proportion to the level of developed countries in the WestIn this way, the conversion rate of consumption will reach about the center, and the first-class consumption will be supplemented to achieve a greater proportion of consumption, which will be close to the level of the developed countries in the West.
This fundamentally solves the imbalance in China's economy.
More importantly, and more effectively, it is necessary to reduce the cost of the system.
Why is it necessary to reduce institutional costs?
Due to the bad overall environment, the situation of private enterprises is no longer what it used to be.
To a large extent, foreign trade is based on the exchange of quantity for price, and the profit rate of enterprises has fallen in the past year, and it will drop again this year, and all enterprises are laying off workers and reducing wages; this is no longer a question of increasing the first distribution of income, but a question of how to ensure basic employment and income.
It will be a slow cycle for enterprises to get out of this weak recovery, and if they want to be fast, they must completely reduce the burden on enterprises, which is still a matter of sharing the cake. China is a high-tax country, with a variety of non-operating expenses and institutional rent-seeking, and more and more licenses, all of which are fees and are demanded from enterprises, which affects the healthy development of enterprises to some extent and is not conducive to economic transformation.
However, the biggest problem now is that the biggest problem of the finance department is that it does not have enough money to spend, so how can this be good?
Therefore, it will be difficult to achieve the target without a significant reduction in institutional spending.
Not long ago, there was an announcement in Jilin that restricted the expenses for civil servants to eat out, and one meal per person could not be higher than one yuanIf I go out, I can't afford to pay for this meal.