The Kunpeng plan is to make money first of all to understand the policy. The recently concluded ** Economic Work Conference set the tone for the focus of the country's economic work next year, and the content of it is very important for everyone. After staying up late to summarize, I summarized the six key points that are closely related to ordinary people in the meeting as follows, and I believe that it will be of great reference value to everyone's planning next year.
Compared with the meeting two years ago, this year's ** economic work conference has changed the tone of the triple pressure facing the country's economic development - demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. The supply shock mainly refers to the global ** chain tension caused by the epidemic, but with the gradual easing of the epidemic, this problem has basically been alleviated. The problem of shrinking demand and weakening expectations remains, partly due to the contraction of domestic demand, which is often referred to as "consumption downgrade", and partly due to the contraction of external demand due to changes in the international situation. In this context, the top priority of economic work next year is to promote demand and stabilize expectations.
It was often said that investment, consumption and exports were the troika that drove the economy, but now the situation may need to be reconsidered, especially with regard to "investment". Due to demographic changes, the number of young people has decreased, and consumer demand has also declined accordingly, and industries such as real estate and Internet e-commerce, which have developed in the past, have risen in this context. Now, with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, it may face the problem of negative population growth in the future, and the average age of the domestic labor force has exceeded 40 years old. The past model of relying on heavy investment to stimulate economic development may no longer be applicable, so the meeting put forward the strategy of "counter-cyclical mediation" and "cross-cyclical mediation", that is, to adopt counter-cyclical policies to stimulate the economy when the economy is in a downturn, but no longer to carry out strong stimulus policies.
An important change in this economic work conference is that it is no longer advisable to live in houses and not to speculate. This does not mean that real estate policy is no longer important, but because this concept has become a consensus and has penetrated into decision-making at all levels. What will be the development of the property market in the future?The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the steady development of the real estate market and accelerate the construction of affordable housing. Overall, stability is a key word. In the future, the real estate industry will walk on two legs, commercial housing will be more market-oriented, consumer demand for good houses will be promoted, and bad houses may be reduced in price to no one cares. On the other hand, a large number of policy-guaranteed housing will also be put on the market to meet the housing needs of ordinary people.
The meeting put forward a new viewpoint, that is, to incorporate non-economic policies into the evaluation of macroeconomic regulation and control. The so-called non-economic policies refer to those policies that are not directly related to economic development. For example, some localities may issue some administrative orders in order to develop the economy, but they are not conducive to the healthy development of the economy, such as local protectionist policies and national highway fee collection policies. The meeting called for attention to non-economic policies to avoid negative impacts on economic development. Localities** will be more cautious and prioritize whether there will be a negative impact on economic development when formulating policies.
The meeting proposed to "promote stability by progress, first establish and then break", that is, to stabilize the existing economic expectations and risk areas, such as real estate, local debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and at the same time eliminate some eliminated and excess capacity. The focus is on the development of scientific and technological innovation, on the one hand, to find new formats and tracks, and on the other hand, to accelerate the industrial upgrading of traditional tracks. Specifically, in addition to hot areas such as artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology, the conference also mentioned commercial aviation, low-altitude economy, as well as digital intelligence technology, green technology, etc., which are the industries with the most potential in the future.
The meeting listed the nine key goals of next year's economic work, that is, to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, expand domestic demand, deepen the reform of key areas, continue to expand high-level opening up, continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, do a good job in the work of agriculture, agriculture and rural areas, promote the integration of urban and rural areas, do a good job in the construction of ecological civilization, and effectively protect and improve people's livelihood. Overall, the economic work in 2023 is a transitional period, which will both continue the achievements of the past and meet new challenges. Among them, the most important thing is to stabilize economic expectations, enhance confidence, reverse the structure of economic development, and seize the time to complete industrial upgrading. The period of economic transition often needs to go through a certain period of pain, Japan took 30 years, the United States took 16 years, and we are already at this stage, it will take several years to complete, perhaps only by time and hard work can prove.