In recent years, the worldEconomyis experiencing a new round of cyclical changes, especially in theThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe end of the cycle. Affected by the interest rate hike of the US dollar, countriesEconomyIt has generally been affected to varying degrees. With the global dollar repatriation positive, the United States has been the biggest beneficiary, while other countries have been troubled. During this period, there have been rounds of risk shocks in the global financial market, giving the worldEconomyIt is clouded with a layer of haze that is difficult to dissipate in the short term.
1. The decline of the German economy
EuropeEconomy's sluggish growth has led to Germany becoming the only developed country with a GDP ratingNegative growthcountries. According toInternationalMonetary ** Organization (imfGermany's GDP will fall 05%。As EuropeEconomyGermany's sluggish performance dragged down the whole of EuropeEconomy
2. Energy costs are rising in Europe
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has created a lot of uncertainties for EuropeEnergy**Instability. This led to the loss of cheapness in EuropeEnergyof**,EnergyRising costs have a direct impact on Europe's manufacturing and export sectors.
3. The impact of exchange rates** on the European economy
The US dollar raises interest ratesThe shock of the cycle made the euro andBritish poundsand other currencies exchange rates sharply**. In the process, Europe has suffered a great deal of risk aversionMoney flowsAmerican influence, while internalEnergyRising costs have led to high inflation, which has put Europe under both internal and external pressures, coupled with Germany as the "locomotive".Economyof stagnation throughout EuropeEconomyIt has entered a downturn.
1. Germany's economic growth is negative
Despite the GermanEconomyThe performance was poor, especially the manufacturing PMI fell to a low of 40%, but Germany's total GDP still grew due to the impact of high inflation. In the first three quarters of this year, Germany's GDP reached 3At the level of 3 trillion US dollars, it surpassed Japan and ranked third in the world.
2. Japan's economy is declining
This is despite the fact that Japan's GDP grew by 1. year-on-year in the first three quarters7%, but due toInflation rateLower than Germany, and inThe US dollar raises interest ratesUnder the impact,Yen exchange ratesharply**, resulting in a significant decline in Japan's GDP when converted into US dollars. Data for the first three quarters showed that Japan's GDP fell to 312 trillion US dollars, falling out of the top three in the world and ranking fourth.
GDP thisEconomyIndicators no longer reflect the truthEconomyCircumstance. Despite the GermanEconomyContinuousNegative growth, but its GDP can surpass that of Japan. Also, JapaneseEconomyThe situation is also not optimistic, with GDP falling by 05%。Behind this phenomenon is not only the depreciation of the exchange rate, but also the decline of industrial competitiveness. Especially in the new one, which is dominated by China, the United States and EuropeEnergyUnder the automobile trend, Japan's auto industry has lost its obvious competitive advantage, except for Toyota, which is still popular all over the world, the sales of other Japanese car companies have fallen sharply, especially in the Chinese market.
1. India's economic growth
In the GDP data of the first three quarters of this year, India's performance is undoubtedly a "big dark horse". Its GDP grew by 71%, ranking first in the world's top 10, becoming one of the fastest growing countries in the world. In recent years, India as:EconomyFaster-growing countries are in global scrutiny.
2. The GDP gap between India and Japan has narrowed
Even though many people were skeptical that India was catching up with Japan's GDP, the GDP gap between India and Japan is narrowing. According to Standard & Poor's**, by 2030, India's GDP is expected to surpass Germany and Japan to rank third in the world.
1. The widening gap between China and the United States in terms of GDP
At present, the GDP gap between China and the United States has widened to 7$2 trillion. In the first three quarters of this year, U.S. GDP increased by 25%, compared to 5 reportedThe 2% growth belongsRing on monthAnnualized growth, not year-on-year growth. However, China's GDP during this periodYear-over-year growth rateStill higher than in the United States. However, AmericanInflation rateMuch higher than China, resulting in a larger GDP increase in the United States.
2. Cause analysis
One of the reasons for this is the strong performance of the US dollar in this round of interest rate hikes, and the general decline in the exchange rate of other currencies, includingRMBin. In addition, ChineseInflation rateConsistently below 1%, while in the United StatesInflation ratehigher, which gives more impetus to GDP growth in the United States. Under the influence of these two factors, the GDP gap between China and the United States has widened.
Currently, globalEconomyIt is at an inflection point in the cycleThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe cycle is coming to an end. The US is expected to start cutting interest rates next year, which will trigger a large amount of money to flow back around the world, causing the dollar to depreciate. At that time,world economyThere will be a new round of changesRMBIt is also expected to usher in appreciation. Hence the future of the globalEconomyThere is still some uncertainty in the situation, which needs to be continued to be watched and evaluated.