Look at the frontier
Recently, Google put a new generation of artificial intelligence model called Gemini into its chatbot Bard, claiming that the model outperformed OpenAI's GPT-4 model and "expert" humans in a series of intelligence tests.
Google claims that the mid-range Pro version of Gemini beats some of the other models, but the more powerful Ultra surpasses the capabilities of all existing AI models. It has a score of 90% on the industry-standard MMLU benchmark, while an "expert" human is expected to reach 898%。
Last year, Google's Deep Thinking released alphacode that beats 50% of human developers, while the newly released Gemini claims to beat 85% of human programmers.
Technical Value Observation
The AI model is located in the model layer of the AIGC industry chain, and the model layer is vertical, applied, and scenario-based models and application tools, which are mainly divided into the underlying general model and the middle-layer model, and the underlying general model can be divided into open source basic model, non-open source basic model and model hosting platformThe middle-tier models include human interaction feedback, large model tuning, and personalization models.
At present, China's AIGC industry has poured into major Internet companies, AI companies, and ecological scene chain companies. Research institutes and other types of participants. Due to the relatively limited development of the industry, the differences between various types of players are relatively limited at present. In China's AIGC industry, the application layer is the most suitable part for start-ups to enter, so the competition among enterprises in the application layer is also the most fierce.
Macro Market Watch
——Synthetic data provides a powerful booster for AI model training and development
Synthetic data is self-labeled information created and generated by computer simulation technology or algorithms, which can mathematically or statistically reflect the attributes of real-world data, so it can be used as a substitute for real-world data to train, test, and validate AI models. At the moment, artificial intelligence is still at 1At stage 0, data is the biggest obstacle, but synthetic data will effectively boost AI to 2Stage 0.
The great value of synthetic data to the development of artificial intelligence has accelerated it to become a new industry track in the field of AI. On the one hand, mainstream foreign technology companies are targeting the field of synthetic dataOn the other hand, synthetic data is a new industry in the field of AI, and related innovations are in the ascendant, synthetic data startups are emerging, and the investment and mergers and acquisitions of synthetic data continue to heat up, and a new business model with broad development prospects for synthetic data as a service has begun to emerge.
China has seen a number of engagementsaigcCompanies that develop and scale applications
Among the leading representative enterprises in China's AIGC industry, the major Internet companies currently have the most extensive business layout, mainly distributed in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities, and have carried out macro strategic layout in various tracks. But other start-ups also have their own advantages, and they have also made some achievements in the subdivision track. At present, there have been a number of companies engaged in the development and extension of large models in China, and the ecology of opening up to the outside world has not yet been widely formed, and further attention needs to be paid to the follow-up dynamics of relevant institutions.
——AIGC industry scale**
According to the estimation of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the scale of China's AIGC market is expected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2023, and 2023-2025 is the first stage of the growth of the market size of China's AIGC industry, with a growth rate of about 25%, and the market size will reach about 26 billion yuan in 2025. Starting from 2025, due to the improvement of the industry ecology (especially the completion of the opening of the underlying large model), the vigorous application layer will drive the rapid growth of the industry, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 70%. It is estimated that the scale of China's AIGC industry will exceed 60 billion yuan in 2027, and starting in 2028, the AIGC industry will extend the complete industrial chain, and continue to expand and deepen in the commercialization scene to deeply transform the industry. From 2028 onwards, the scale of China's AIGC industry will continue to maintain rapid growth, and the market size will exceed one trillion yuan in 2030.
Chinese artificial intelligence technology track heat map
According to the forward-looking industry heat map, the urban clusters strongly related to the key technologies of artificial intelligence are mainly concentrated in North China, South China and East China, and Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an and other cities are the key development areas. In the future, the development path of artificial intelligence and AIGC technology is most likely to be prioritized in North China, South China and East China, which can focus on AIGC-related enterprises in Panyu District and Haidian District of Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, as well as the potential space for the industrial development and investment environment of artificial intelligence and the supply market in these places.
From the perspective of the regional distribution of AIGC industry chain enterprises in China, they are mainly distributed in the first-tier cities and new first-tier cities with relatively developed economies on the eastern coast, because the AIGC industry is a knowledge-intensive industry and has a huge investment in R&D in the early stage, which requires good regional economic strength and channels for the cultivation and delivery of high-end talents. The concentrated distribution area has a good policy, economic and technological environment, which is easy to attract start-ups to develop here, and it is easy to form an industrial agglomeration effect.
The Economist Intelligence Group.
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "2023-2028 China AIGC Industry Development Prospects** and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, and the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment promotion, industrial map, smart investment promotion system, industry status certification, IPO consulting, fundraising feasibility study, IPO working paper consulting, etc. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and annual report, formal authorization from Qianzhan Industry Research Institute is required. More in-depth industry analysis is available in the [Prospective Economist APP], and you can also communicate and interact with 500+ economists and senior industry researchers.