2023 **Ups and downs summary
About the Fed's interest rate hike
Starting from the high inflation of CPI in Europe and the United States in the second half of 2021, the Fed's interest rate hike has lagged CPI
With the advent of the interest rate hike cycle, Hong Kong stocks, ChiNext board, Shenzhen Index, and U.S.-China concept stocks have begun to fall endlessly. In particular, the interest rate hike cycle avoids Hong Kong stocks and the negative decline of A-shares. Printing money and throwing money - CPI continues to rise - interest rate hike cycle - there is still about half a year to bottom out after the end of the interest rate hike cycle.
Attached is the schedule of the interest rate hike cycle:
: On overcapacity, the Taodong cycle theory
Talk about two cycles.
1) Signs, due to the technological progress of photovoltaic itself, carbon neutrality + photovoltaic boom cycle + energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, photovoltaic + energy storage is a smash hit, followed by: photovoltaic companies that have been listed are crazy refinancing (fixed increase + allotment +convertible bonds), as well as a large number of IPOs of new companies in the same industry, as well as a lot of cross-industry investment in photovoltaic (such as selling clothes, raising pigs, making food, etc., and a large amount of financing), indicating that the industry is basically over, maybe the performance will be one and a half years old, but the first will feedback in advance and start to run away. Once the whole industry is crazy to expand + cross-industry crazy investment, please stay away from this industry. Take a look at the trend of photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy vehicle battery industry chain in recent years
Semiconductor cycle + autonomous and controllable
The disruption of the industrial chain + geopolitical crisis caused by the epidemic has led to the fact that major countries around the world are engaged in independent and controllable semiconductor chips, crazy investment (pay attention to the equipment at this time, the investment cycle sequence equipment is ahead of the material, and the chip design is greater than the chip foundry), and with the superimposed impact of the reduction of global inflationary demand, the supply and demand are misaligned, and the overcapacity is immediately overcapacity.
3) About the directionIntroductory period—growth period—maturity period—decline period, concept—theme—growth infiltration(Evolution).
ChatGPT model - artificial intelligence - computing chip - giant body intelligence (combined with humanoid robots) - media (combined with games, ** culture, metaverse, etc.).
Choosing a direction is more important than effort. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle is normally more certain for Hong Kong stocks.
In 2024, we will focus on the following directions: humanoid robots, 3D printing, quantum communication, controlled nuclear fusion (superconductivity), chip cycle recovery and autonomous controllability, metaverse, brain-computer interface, intelligent driving (lidar, AR-HUD), and casting nets where there are fish.
Grid, choose the right direction, be patient, grid trading, control**, binding deterministic returns. Spend 80% of the time waiting, and 20% of the time trading. Waiting is what trading is all about. Patience, self-discipline, consistency, simplicity.
About Convertible Bonds (Spectacle).
A spectacle this year is that every convertible bond was subscribed, but none of them were signed. With the improvement of everyone's awareness of convertible bonds, on the one hand, the allotment rate of the original shareholders has increased, so that the share of the secondary market is less, and on the other hand, there are many people who subscribe, basically 8 million people+. There are no 1,000 placement numbers, and the winning rate is pitifully low.
On institutional issues
The flood and speed of IPOs, whether it is a boom industry, a surplus industry, or a saturated industry, are frantically IPO expansion transition financing and refinancing, involution, and then the boom also becomes excessive. Liquidation dividends before listing, and even borrowing money to pay dividends and then raising funds to repay debts, chaos is frequent, whitewashing performance fraud before listing, and performance changes a large number of faces after listing.
Strict punishment and strict law issues: the issue of the responsibility of the sponsor company, the problem of the accounting firm, the issue of the issuer and the actual controller, if there is no legal deterrence, it will become an encouraging fraud to hollow out the listed company for cash, etc. (Circulars of criticism, admonishment, warning, 30 or 600,000 fines).
The problem of refinancing, restricted shares finally began to repair the loopholes at the end of this year, but at present, it relies on self-examination and repairs it from a technical level. Non-restricted shares can still be borrowed and borrowed, and shareholders can resist this additional interest**
The chaos of public offerings and private placements is frequent, high-level pick-ups, rat warehouses, IPOs raise prices indiscriminately, and managers charge high management fees.
Hollowing out listed companies: For example, the actual controller embezzles and embezzles the funds of the listed company, acquires related assets at a high premium, or secretly conveys benefits. Hundreds of millions of fines for financial fraud are fined, tens or millions. Crazy**, combined with OTC market value management OTC options profit, manipulate ** market waiting.
About the trading month and 2024 trading
At the end of the year, liquidity was tight in December, and only the last week of the month had higher trading certainty.
In September and April of each year, individuals lose a lot and a lot, pay attention to keep it
As follows, the yield loss is greater than 3% in these two months.
In 2024, due to the current low stock index, and the Federal Reserve is expected to start the interest rate cut cycle this year, semiconductors are in a recovery cycle (storage has now taken precedence, computing chips first). Keep an eye out for opportunities in Hong Kong stocks and expect high stability in January 2024.
9) Transaction frequency
In 2020, there were 1,397 transactions, with a return volatility of 48%, and a total of 81 positions**.
In 2021, there were 1,354 transactions, with a return volatility of 26%, and a total of 86 positions**.
In 2022, there were 1,156 trades, with a return volatility of 40%, and a total of 100 positions**.
In 2023, there will be 1,030 trades, a return volatility of 44%, and a total of 61 positions**.
High-frequency trading, contribute commissions to the company every year, contribute stamp duty to the Ministry of Finance, reduce the frequency of transactions, reduce the number of positions, and reduce the volatility of earnings.
The summary is to start again, improve your cognition, stay patient, and choose the right direction!
Mo Daojun is early, and there are more early pedestrians!
Turn the page in 2023