Yu Liang**Real estate in the next few years, there is a high probability that it will be accurate again?Reasons to be trusted
Vanke's current chairman, Yu Liang and Wang Shi, are entrepreneurs who have an accurate grasp of the property market trend, which everyone knows. Back in 2018, when China's property market was at its most prosperous, Yu Liang and Wang Shi put forward the slogan "Alive, Alive, Alive". Since then, Vanke has taken some measures, such as limiting investment, reducing corporate expenses, ensuring sufficient liquidity, and stopping the top spot in the competitive market. Yu Liang and Wang Shi's vision was confirmed. Today, Vanke is the biggest winner in China's real estate industry.
After 2022, with the downturn in the property market, most cities will relax restrictions on housing loans. At the same time, major banks have lowered the interest rate on housing loans and lowered the down payment. In addition, some areas have also increased the mortgage limit of the housing provident fund. However, various favorable policies have not warmed up the real estate market, but have made China's real estate market still in a process of correction.
In this regard, Yu Liang also put forward his own views on the real estate market: "You can't expect a policy to be done once and for all. Yu Liang believes that despite the introduction of a variety of favorable measures, it is still expected that the real estate market will develop steadily and prevent violent fluctuations in the real estate market. However, ** will usually be below the bottom of the policy.
Not long ago, Yu Liang once again made a new prediction about the direction of China's property market. Yu Liang believes that "you can buy a house, you want to buy a house, you need to buy a house" is the result of a combination of three factors, and China's real estate market will bottom out in the next few years. For this point, some industry insiders believe that Yu Liang's prediction is likely to be correct. From these three aspects, we can see the development trend of real estate.
First of all, when the bottom of the property market is depends on whether ordinary people can "buy" and whether they can afford it. At present, there are two major factors for Chinese people to buy houses: first, the housing prices in China are really ridiculously high, with 100 cities in the country, 90 square meters of residences, 150-200 yuan. Such a high **, the average person can't afford it.
Second, after three years of the pandemic, the income of most people has declined, and the ability of ordinary people to buy property has been greatly affected and cannot afford the current ** grid. Therefore, even if there are various discounts, no one will buy them.
In addition, when the property market will reach the bottom depends on whether the Chinese people "want to buy", which is related to the public's confidence in buying a house. Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden, Sunac and other large real estate companies, in this year, have a large number of arrears and unfinished real estate, which has a great impact on the confidence of ordinary people to buy houses. Moreover, it's not a matter of a day or two.
In addition, in recent years, China's second-hand housing** has dropped sharply, and even in first-tier cities such as Shanghai, its second-hand housing** has fallen by more than 30% compared with the peak. Without profitability, buyers who are just in need or improving will not rush into the market. It is clear that market confidence in the housing market will continue for some time to come.
Eventually, it's still to be purchased. With the end of urbanization, the aging population, the need for young people to get married and have children is decreasing, the demand in the real estate market is becoming saturated, and the number of families who get married, settle down, and improve the purchase of houses is also decreasing.
Of course, at present, there are still a large number of rigid demand for buying houses in China that have not been released, because they cannot buy housing, so they can only wait for housing prices to gradually recover to a suitable price, combined with the local need to buy houses, so that those who are temporarily unable to buy houses will begin to emerge in large numbers, so that the regulation of the property market will embark on the road of sustainable development.
At the same time, Yu Liang is also optimistic about Wang Shi, believing that in the future, the developer's debt arrears and unfinished projects will be greatly reduced. There are three main factors in favor of this plan:
1. State-owned banks have injected funds into private real estate developers. In November alone, more than 30 billion blood flowed in. In this way, the probability of a private real estate company exploding can be reduced2. In some places, urban renewal and other projects have been started, so that those who have been demolished can also buy their own houses, and at the same time can sell them for more money. 3. Places such as Suzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen and other places have relaxed the preferential policies for real estate developers, so that they can reduce ** according to their own conditions.