Fireworks are prone to cold. Previously, due to the explicit and implied by Japan's central mother, the market has basically bet on Japan's "disguised interest rate hike" in January.
On the bright side, Japan has been undergoing intense monetary easing throughout the dollar rate hike cycle.
A large amount of cheap money has left the yen, which has led to huge pressure on the depreciation of the yen exchange rate.
In other words, Japan has a similar situation to us, but Japan's ** is much better than us, and the good houses in the Tokyo area have also risen by 5 or 6% so far this year.
In addition, it is said that China's economy is not good, then Japan's GDP is still negative, and the CPI is still higher than ours. Proper stagflation, but people can hold up the domestic capital market.
Not only to stand up, but also not afraid of financial warfare at all.
Obviously, under the overnight loan agreement between Japan and the United States in March, the Japanese central mother is certainly not panicking. As long as Japan is short of dollars, it will lend it to you directly, and unlimited dollar bullets.
On the other hand, we are suppressed by the depreciation of the yen in the real economy, and on the other hand, a large amount of capital has fled from our onshore and offshore under the extreme pressure of the US dollar.
From a fundamental point of view, our wave of suppression of the demand side by the US financial war can be regarded as a real hammer.
Of course, the Japanese are also internally wounded.
The depreciation of the yen has not greatly boosted Japan's exports, but has hurt it. This is because many things in the upstream of Japan's manufacturing industry are heavily dependent on imports. The depreciation of the yen has kept the cost of imports high, so this is the case with Japan's real economy.
On the other hand, if the depreciation of the yen is left unchecked, the heavier imported inflation will also be a big hollowing out of the Japanese people's ability to bear it.
From a geopolitical point of view, after entering the industrial and commercial civilization system, a small country railway will definitely pursue a huge surrounding geopolitical vacuum zone as its own buffer security zone.
And in this era, who would not want to use finance, economics, and technology to defeat opponents?
Therefore, now that the Japanese are suddenly going to raise interest rates, they are talking about boosting the yen exchange rate, so what is the truth?
You must know that in the past so many years, Japan's central mother has invested 10 trillion US dollars in cheap money around the world.
Many of them have entered our offshore market, and many of the creditors behind our Chinese dollar bonds are Japanese capital.
In this round, taking advantage of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle, Japanese capital cooperated with the continuous shorting of our Chinese dollar bonds, which had a significant impact on our domestic real estate.
Now, once Japan raises interest rates, then we should have more funds in the offshore market to accelerate the return of funds to Japan.
In other words, there is still a fall in the offshore market, which may be difficult to escape.
In fact, recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has trembled a little, which still reflects this concern.
To understand it from another angle, Japan's disguised interest rate hike is a kind of "relay" to the tail of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle.
The Fed can't add much, so Japan will continue to take the top, and cooperate with the father of the gold owner to finally use the strong dollar to harvest a little more.
So, the question now is, when exactly will the Fed cut interest rates?
Many people say that they look at data, or that there is a problem in one area of economics and finance.
In fact, this statement is all "want to cover up".
Why are Americans so good under such crazy interest rate hikes?
Because, before the start of the rate hike, the Fed at that time engaged in a reverse repo facility (imagine a piggy bank) about the size of $2 trillion. Thanks to this piggy bank, the U.S. Treasury issues new debt, local governments at all levels issue benefits, and aid to Ukraine all have a safety cushion that is not affected by interest rate hikes.
And now, there are only hundreds of billions of dollars in this piggy bank, and they are being consumed very quickly.
Therefore, if the Fed wants to cut interest rates, it must see that there is not enough silver in this piggy bank, and then it should release water. Because, as long as there is money in this piggy bank, consumption in the United States will be supported, and you can continue to eat mixed rice.
However, if Japan's central government raises interest rates, the power to buy U.S. bonds overseas will be greatly diminished. This means that the American piggy bank will quickly drain money liquidity.
As we said above, Japan's central government raised interest rates in disguise, when the Fed was overwhelmed, and then relayed to cooperate with the harvest.
Obviously, the relatively best effect should be aimed at us and Southeast Asia, after all, the influence of the yen is also this large area.
However, this is a bit good for the RMB exchange rate.
Because, after the yen is no longer competitively depreciated, the RMB exchange rate will strengthen, and the external resistance will be relatively smaller.
In 1997, the Southeast Asian crisis occurred not only because of the interest rate hike by the United States, but also because the huge amount of cheap yen loans accumulated in Southeast Asia suddenly returned to Japan, and finally brought Southeast Asia down completely.
This time, people saw that the Fed's three-pronged axe of financial warfare did not affect us too much, so in the end, we had to use the same methods used to deal with Southeast Asian countries in the end.
If this wave can hurt our domestic demand a little more, or even allow us to sell more foreign reserves to defend the lost RMB exchange rate, then the US and Japanese bigwigs are still very happy to see it.
After all, in the context of the gradual decoupling of China and the United States, China's ability to obtain dollars in the future is declining. In order to prevent the chain system from being affected, China's exchange rate is to protect foreign reserves, at the expense of domestic demand. Now that China has made this choice, Japan certainly wants to keep us in this predicament for a longer period of time.
When the time comes, we will cooperate with the ** war and sing empty us every day, wouldn't it be refreshing?
The question is: should we even be worried?
First of all, we must be very clear that the initial impact of Japan's interest rate hike on us still exists. However, compared to the lethality of the Fed, it is still very limited.
The real dilemma we have now is real estate, and one of the targets of people's short-selling is our high-quality developers. If the developer can be profitable, can solve the pressure of monetary liquidity, and can have the ability to do a good job of ensuring the delivery of the property, then it is not so easy to further short the Chinese dollar bonds.
In fact, at this time, if the real estate can be relatively strong, it is equivalent to a domestic field that produces a higher rate of return, and the funds are easy to stay in. Funds have a cost, where are so many values?Wherever the money comes, stay there.
This also means that for the harvest in the United States, we have to prevent people from shorting after hot money comes in;But for the short position in Japan, we should pull up the assets ** in it as a hedge.
After all, the dollar interest rate cut cycle will start in a few months, and the time window for Japan to raise interest rates is very limited.
Of course, it will take a transmission time for the property market to pull up.
Therefore, for now, it is best to put the ** up first, and then gradually spill over to the offshore market. With the money-making effect, confidence is restored, and funds are willing to stay in it, then the offshore short-selling power from the yen capital will be significantly reduced.
As long as the RMB exchange rate can maintain a strong appreciation at the same time, then the above measures can wrestle with the Japanese.
In many cases, the so-called overseas shorting is just the beginning. What can really play the biggest role is the irrational flight of local funds in a panic.
Therefore, as long as the local funds can be rationally willing to stay in it, even if people can start shorting, what are they worried about?
New Year's Eve**, the key is to change beliefs with three yang lines.