Harbin property market will usher in three major characteristics:
1. Future price increases are only improvements.
2. The real estate market is down to the bottom.
3. Housing prices in Harbin have fallen to the end.
Why?At present, the Harbin property market is facing "4 bottoms".
Policy bottom
"Blood transfusion" and "hematopoiesis" go hand in hand.
The loosening of the toothpaste-style policy will not work.
So I started to take strong drugs.
Transfusion endUnsecured working capital loans, white list of real estate enterprises, "three not less than", and 25 financial ......
Trillion-dollar bond issuance is already on the way.
1 trillion special national bonds, 27 trillion yuan of local special bonds, as well as 1 trillion yuan of the "three major projects", the water has arrived.
The financial meeting on November 17 clearly stated that it is necessary to "accelerate the supply-side reform of real estate finance";On October 31, the ** financial conference emphasized "promoting a virtuous cycle of finance and real estate, and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination".
Administrative, fiscal, and financial means are stimulated together.
It can be seen that the determination is obvious, and the "action is not small" in terms of real estate support.
Hematopoietic endSeedlings are planted in dry land, and water supply is only to continue life, and seedling control is fundamental.
The three major projects are very clear-
Planning and construction of affordable housing, urban village transformation, and dual-use infrastructure (guaranteed delivery of buildings).
How to achieve "hematopoiesis"?
1. Transfer the stock housing as affordable housing.
For example:
Combined with the "trade-in plus" version of the pilot in Taicang, Jiangsu:It will greatly promote the circulation of the new housing and second-hand housing markets and stabilize local finances. Harbin also has a precedent:State-owned urban investment directly went to the market, acquired second-hand houses "old and dilapidated" as affordable housing, and then obtained directional housing tickets for state-owned development, and went to the new property to buy a house and sign a new contract.
In just a few days, the first batch of 100 sets of ** in Taicang was basically emptied.
Greenland Northeast Asia National Expo City took the lead in implementing the policy of "old houses can be replaced with new houses for free", and the response was enthusiastic.
For home buyers, developers and **, it is a real "three-party win-win".
2. Promote urban renewal and adopt the "house ticket" resettlement compensation method.
November 13, HarbinSongjiang Village, Qianjin Village, Hada VillageThree urban village reconstruction projects have been approved.
The total number of households is 3,613, and the total area of resettlement houses is 1324940.
In addition, there are 6 villages such as Liujia Village, Yongsheng Village, Chaoyang Town, and Caojia Village, which are still within the scope of shantytown reform.
As soon as the urban village is demolished, the demand for housing will naturally arise
Buy a house, and the property market can naturally "pick up".
The house tickets of "urban villages" and "affordable housing" will effectively reduce the inventory of the property market and promote the return of cash flow by real estate enterprises.
Blood transfusion is rushing, hematopoiesis is following, and the bottom of the policy has not yet arrived
The point is that China's real estate has changed anchors: housing reform 20。
Rigid need to be guaranteed, improve marketization, and double regulations.
* The guarantee fund is 42.5 billion, and Heilongjiang has received 1.6 billion.
Once the guarantee is ready, after it is popularized, the improvement must be liberalized.
The water comes in and drains directly into the improved pool.
On the surface, it is called guarantee to security, and the market to market;In fact, it is the mansion that belongs to the mansion, and the commoners to the commoners.
Just need to go to the security, improve the market, and want the actual benefits of 7 subsidies?
Don't think about it, you don't care about the improvement, the house price will rise casually, and someone can buy it.
Therefore, the next round of ** has nothing to do with rigid demand, but only belongs to improvement and luxury houses.
Just need the plate, has been waterproof.
Market bottom
At present, it is not only to save the property market, but also to save the economy.
After all, all policies are a reflection of economic problems.
In October, the increase in social finance was 185 trillion yuan, 910.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Social finance, also known as social financing, refers to the total amount of funds received by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period of time.In particular, the growth rate rose by 0 from the previous month3 percentage points, ** to 93%。The higher the increment of social financing, the more funds the real economy receives from the financial system, and the more active investment and consumption are.
The decline in the growth rate of social finance indicates that the flow of funds in the economy has slowed down and the expectations are pessimistic.
on the Internet.
The growth rate of social finance has come out of the trough for four consecutive months.
M2 growth has also begun to stop.
M2, which stands for Total Funds, refers to all the money circulating in the market.M2 increased by 10% year-on-year in October3%。After several months of decline, the growth rate was the same as at the end of the previous month.
on the Internet.
At the bottom of the market, I saw that I was about to touch the "door".
Most crucially, the state has also started issuing bonds.
In other words, give the local government a large amount of "infrastructure money", first engage in construction, and use investment to stimulate the economy.
The troika that drives the economy - investment, consumption and exports, investment accounts for the largest proportion, as high as 40%.
From January to October 2023, Harbin's consumption and exports are good, but only the investment that accounts for the majority is not ideal, with a growth rate of -257%。
If you want to quickly stimulate the economy, it is simply investment-
Manufacturing, real estate, infrastructure construction.
Grasping investment is the main direction of Harbin in the future.
Then the consequences are:
Overcapacity, high debt, and shifting from real to virtual.
Reflected in housing prices, it is rising.
History says it all:
In the 1998 financial crisis, 270 billion special treasury bonds were issued, and the era of commercial housing officially opened, and housing prices began to be the first.Housing prices are a monetary effect, and the house has its own financial attributes and has the ability to absorb money. As long as more money is issued, as long as water comes in, as long as there is investment in infrastructure, it will skyrocket.In the 2008 financial crisis, 155 trillion special national bonds, while releasing 4 trillion investment;In 2009, housing prices in major cities doubled, and Shenzhen tripled in a year.
From 2015 to 2017, 12 trillion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 600 billion yuan of special national bonds were allocatedBy 2016, house prices had skyrocketed, doubling in many cities.
The essence of the bad property market is because the economy is not good.
Now it's right.
The downward trend of the market will naturally stop.
The price is at the bottom
Has Harbin's housing prices fallen into place?
2019 is the "peak year" of Harbin's housing prices.
Five years have passed, and housing prices in Harbin have dropped by 12 percent since 201916%。
In October, the average transaction price of commercial housing in Harbin was 9,765 yuan.Harbin's housing prices, has it fallen to the bottom?Harbin house pricesAlready in the end,There is no way to reduce house prices.
The characteristics of the Harbin market have explained everything:
1. Special offers replace ** battles
In the past three years, the average transaction price of the Harbin property market has continued to decline, and buyers have insufficient expectations for market confidence.
If you want to sell well, you have to look at **,
But it is not "open fall", but "dark fall".
7% off and 8% off the table price" will no longer be available, and the packaging will be changed to "buy a house and send property fees, parking spaces", "buy a house and get 100,000 home decoration gift packages", "up to 100,000 drops" and other forms, this kind of situation will be more obvious next year.
2. There is a mismatch between the housing prices of "high standing guard" at a "high level" and the income of home buyers after the epidemic
Now, most of the new properties for sale in the market are acquired during the period from 2019 to 2021, which is the "peak" of land prices
Zhonghai Tianyu, the transaction floor price is 8210 yuan;The developer ** takes the land, and its high development cost leads to the housing price "irreducible". Household incomes, however, are extremely unstable.Xinfeng Yunzhu, the transaction floor price is 8780 yuan;
China Resources Land Yuefu, the transaction floor price is 9042 yuan;
Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion, the transaction floor price is 9508 yuan;
In 2022, household deposits increased by 177%, household loans fell 41%。
Compared with "advanced consumption", people are more willing to save money.
The data comes from the online signature filing system
On the one hand, the project standing guard at the high land price is eager to recover the "cost" and clear the inventory;
On the one hand, home buyers have unstable incomes and weak willingness to buy houses, and they mostly have a wait-and-see attitude;
The contradiction between the two has led to a serious imbalance in the supply and demand relationship of the property market.
With the arrival of the bottom of the market, the contradiction between "* war" and "matching" will be alleviated.
The overall housing price of the Harbin property market has reached the bottom of the market and can no longer be explored.
So before the arrival of Xiaoyangchun next year, the current time to buy a house is very important.
Emotional bottom
The current property market, the bottom of the policy, the bottom of the market, and low housing prices have all appeared.
But the most important thing is that the "emotional bottom" still needs to be restored urgently.
Vanke Yuliang once talked about the recovery of the real estate market and the need for "three buys".
Can buy, want to buy, need to buy.
need to buy", the demand for improved housing remains huge.
The current level of market construction has obviously overfallen, and it is accumulating potential energy for spontaneous repair.
On November 28, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, also said:
The real estate market has bottomed out.
can buy", the policy has created the necessary conditions.
Since August this year, many policies have been introduced to support reasonable housing demand, creating conditions for the release of demand.
At present, the difficulty is the problem of "wanting to buy", that is, restoring consumer confidence.
That is, the confidence and expectation of home buyers.
Only when the three work together, buyers have the ability to buy, the willingness to buy, and the need to buy.
Only then will the property market truly recover and continue to grow.
Two truths must now be recognized.
1. China's property market is a policy market.
Second, China's property market, at least one more round**. In the future, the gap between the rich and the poor will intensify.
The propertied are always rich, and the proletarians are difficult to cross the class, and the class solidification is becoming stronger and stronger. It may be getting harder and harder to exchange a house for a house.
4.7 trillion, just an appetizer.