At present, the Harbin property market is facing "4 bottoms":
The bottom of the policy, the bottom of the market, the bottom of housing prices and the bottom of sentiment.
The current property market, where to go?
It is important to remember that there are two key points that affect the direction of the property market:
The policy sets the toneFinancial initiatives.
Both are indispensable.
First, the "signal" of the recovery of the property market
Approaching the end of the year, it's time to look at your "money bag".
According to the latest data released by the central bank:
In October, household deposits across the country declined636.9 billion yuan less.
What does this mean?
That is, consumption is greater than saving, and more and more people are willing to "consume".
Market confidence is gradually recovering.
However, don't get excited yet, if you look at it for a long time, it's still a bit of a problem.
According to the data of the first three quarters, there is still a gap between household deposits and total household loans
In the first three quarters of 2023, household deposits increased by a total of 1442 trillion yuan;On the whole, compared with "advanced consumption", most people are still willing to save money. There is no way, in the economic recovery period, keeping the principal is the first.By the end of September, household deposits totaled 134 trillion yuan.
In the first three quarters of 2023, household loans increased by a total of 385 trillion yuan;
As of the end of September, the total number of household loans nationwide was 7961 trillion yuan.
Data ** on the official website of the People's Bank of China, how to boost the people's market confidence?
The "recovery" of the market is an important signal.
First, broad money (m2) growth began to stop.
M2, which stands for Total Funds, refers to all the money circulating in the market.At the end of October, the M2 balance was 28823 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103%，This is the first time since February** that the decline has stopped, and the growth rate is the same as at the end of last month.M2 usually reflects changes in aggregate social demand and the state of future inflationary pressures.
on the Internet.
Secondly, the growth rate of social finance has also come out of the trough for four consecutive months.
In October, the increase in the scale of social financing was 185 trillion yuan, 910.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
In particular, the growth rate rose by 0 from the previous month3 percentage points, up to 93%。
The increment in the scale of social financing refers to the amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period of time.The increase in the growth rate of social financing indicates that the speed of capital flow in the economy has accelerated, and the expectation is good.
on the Internet.
In addition, the growth rate of real estate development loans has also increased.
At the end of the third quarter of 2023, the balance of real estate development loans was 1317 trillion yuan,The year-on-year growth rate was 4%, and the growth rate was 03%。
At the end of September, the balance of real estate loans was 5319 trillion yuan, the decline in growth has stabilized.
The market economy is picking up, and the "recovery" of the property market is becoming more and more obvious.
In 2024, we should be more confident.
Second, interest rate cuts and RRR cuts
The frequent signals of the "recovery" of the property market are inseparable from the support of national financial policies.
As of October, the LPR has been lowered twice this year:
June, one-year LPR: 355%, a 10 basis point reduction;The interest rate cut is conducive to stimulating the release of demand in the property market. This year's property market has also ushered in two "RRR cuts":Five-year LPR: 420%, a 10 basis point reduction
August, one-year LPR: 345%, a 10 basis point reduction;
Five-year LPR: 420%, unchanged
On March 27, the central bank announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 025 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio).to 76%On September 15, the central bank announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 025 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio).to 74%
The RRR cut is conducive to guiding social expectations, boosting market confidence, and further consolidating the foundation for economic stability and upward growth.
On August 31, the property market ushered in a "double decline":
The basis points of the interest rate of the existing mortgage and the interest rate of the second home loan have been reduced.
This is a good thing for home buyers, banks and the market to be a "win-win" situation. It has greatly promoted the virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
In November, unsecured working capital loans and 25 financial provisions have provided financial support for real estate enterprises.
Financial measures have been taken one after another, and the "bailout" has been intensified.
Now, the call for "interest rate cuts and RRR cuts" in the market is still very high.
Interest rate cuts may bring about demand for asset purchases, which makes the return of funds from real estate companies expected and the recovery of market confidence will be accelerated.
The essence of the RRR cut is to reduce the reserve requirement ratioDon't underestimate this downward adjustment, it will release nearly 100 billion long-term funds in the market.
There is more liquidity in the market, which can stimulate the release of economic vitality and help the property market to develop.
Next, we can expect the arrival of a new wave of "interest rate cuts and RRR cuts".
Third, the bank "rescue" force
The property market in November is "blood transfusion" and "hematopoiesis" at both ends.
4.7 trillion bonds on the way:
1 trillion special national bonds, 27 trillion yuan of local special bonds, 1 trillion yuan of the "three major projects", the water has arrived.
"Three not less than", the white list of real estate enterprises appeared one after another, "detonating" the property market.
The country's determination to "save the market" is obvious, and it has "taken a lot of action" in terms of real estate support.
Banks have also followed the situation and have begun to show "action".
CCB has the most sensitive sense of smell and took the lead in convening a symposium of 6 real estate companies on November 24
It is planned to further support the financing needs of real estate enterprises and supplement liquidity.
On November 27, Bank of Communications held a symposium with 15 real estate companies.
15 real estate companies involved:It was presented at the meetingThree-specialization and two-fold "3+2" mechanismIn order to do a good job in financial support services for real estate enterprises in the public sector.Vanke, Greentown, Longfor, Midea Real Estate, Xincheng Holdings, Cinda Real Estate Shoukai Co., Ltd., Excellence, Lujiazui Group, Yanlord Land, Dahua Group, Pudong Development Group, Binjiang Group, New Hope Real Estate, Weixing Group.
"Three specializations".Including the establishment of a special working class, the creation of an exclusive approval channel, and the implementation of a special plan for balance sheet improvement"Twofold".It refers to the two major priorities of supporting the financing of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems and the "three major projects" without discrimination.
In addition, Zheshang Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Guangfa Bank, etc. have convened real estate companies to hold symposiums ......
On the one hand, the official came forward to stabilize the "military heart", and on the other hand, the bank has no upper limit "rescue".
Saving the market is really starting to "magnify the move".
On November 28, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said:
China's real estate industry is seeking a new balanceThe sentiment and ** of the market have begun to normalize, and the real estate market is expected to have bottomed out.
At present, it is the most important "turning point" of the property market
Often the saddest time is when the risk is fading away.
Now, the whole country is actively bailing out the market from top to bottom
I believe that this "dark moment" will soon be over.
China's property market is not only a policy market, but also a financial market.
The policy tone, the financial and fiscal blessings, coupled with the "rescue" of the bankNow, the signs of "recovery" in the property market have become increasingly obvious.
In 2024, there may be a major "opportunity" for the property market.
But the current property market, there is still a period of "hedging and dragging" the economy, what do you think?