The end of an era.
School district housing plummeted
The school district house, after all, broke the defense.
*Sexual messages first came from Shanghai. Zhujiatan Community, Shanghai, the corresponding school is Mingzhu Primary School, a top school in Pudong New Area, according to ** report, the housing prices in the community have fallen all the way this year
In March, the average price fell to 100,000;
In September, the listing price fell to 90,000;
At the end of November, some landlords directly lowered the listing price to 780,000 ......
What is this concept?You must know that in 2021, the housing price in the community will rise to 150,000 yuan, which is a drop of 48% according to the current listing price, almost halved!
In other words, if you spent two years ago8 million bought a set, and now it has fallen to more than 3.8 million.
This is not an isolated case. Looking at the school district housing in Shanghai, they are now all in the **-Yangpu Miyun Community School District housing, which has fallen from nearly 150,000 to more than 80,000;The housing in the Meiyuan New Village School District has dropped from 200,000 to more than 90,000 ......
Not only Shanghai, but also other first-tier city school district housing is similar.
In Shenzhen, the school districts of the four famous schools are falling. The school district housing of Shenzhen Middle School has dropped by 29%. The school district housing in Shenzhen has fallen by 30%-45%. A community called Great Wall Garden, which was nearly 170,000 in 2021, has now dropped to more than 90,000, a decrease of 43%.
Beijing, the "Zhongguancun Three Elementary School" School District Fang Wanliu Hummingbird Home Community, which was previously sold for 220,000 square meters, is now sold for less than 120,000 yuan.
Guangzhou, according to the combing of "in the Bay Area", in Yuexiu District, where famous schools are everywhere, more than 80% of the 28 second-hand communities have fallen, with the highest decline of more than 30%. The counterpart Dongfeng East Road Primary School's Jincheng Garden and Junhui Shijia fell by 28% and 18% respectively.
This is true for first-tier cities, not to mention other cities
In Hangzhou, the school district housing of several key primary schools has basically dropped by more than 15%;
Suzhou, Gusu District, the old school district housing, the overall *** has exceeded 34%;
In Hefei, there is a school district housing drop of nearly 50%;
In Wuhan, many school district houses have fallen to the point where the transaction price is not directly displayed, and I am afraid that it is too ugly ......
School district housing, the king of the pyramid of China's property market, is finally going to step down from the altar.
"Crazy" school district room
School district housing was once a belief in the hearts of buyers.
In March 2013, in Huaqing Jiayuan, Haidian District, Beijing, a 37-square-meter house was priced at 3.5 million yuan, approaching 100,000 yuan per square meter. Because of its terrifying nature, this place is known as the "Center of the Universe".
But just three months later, the record was broken. Jingshan East Street, Dongcheng District, a 400-square-meter courtyard house, **1300 million yuan, 3250 thousand.
Due to the high level, these two sets were quickly taken off the shelves. But from them, the vast majority of people hear such a concept for the first time:School District Room.
Not only in Beijing, but also in major cities across the country, all high-quality school district houses have been sold as "luxury goods".
In Shenzhen, there is a school district in Huaqiangbei called Gelin Netyuan, a set of 44The transaction price of 58 houses was 6.32 million yuan when it was sold in April 2020, 140,000 yuan per square meter, and the transaction price in the same period of the previous year was 100,000 yuan. In other words, in a year, the landlord earns 5,000 yuan a day, and the buyer has to pay nearly 1.8 million more.
In 2019, Nanjing released a set of "mini" school district rooms, which are only enough for a bed and a table in 13 large rooms. But because of the low total price, the landlord **1.68 million, the housekeepers lined up at the door. What's even more magical is that this is a set of "tiled houses", which are 39 years old.
The reason for this "broken house" is that it belongs to the school district of Langya Road Primary School in Nanjing. Langya Road Primary School is one of the three most famous primary schools in Nanjing.
This kindBehind the reality is the huge magic of the school district room.
According to a set of data published by China Education Daily, about 160,000 children in Beijing in 2015 had their primary school enrollment information collected. Among them, there are about 100,000 Beijing students and about 60,000 non-Beijing students. However, the 25 primary schools with the best reputation in the three districts of Dongcheng, Xicheng and Haidian can only accept about 5,000 students.
On the one hand, there is the potential demand of 160,000 people, and on the other hand, there are 5,000 high-quality degree places, and the school district room is the ticket to the prestigious school.
Look deeper,School District Room. ofHotRootedScarcity and inequality of high-quality educational resources.
Let's look at a set of data: the undergraduate acceptance rate of universities in 2019, Henan candidates are 10840,000, 360,000 for the undergraduate batch, and the rate is 332%, Guangdong, Sichuan, Anhui, Hebei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Gansu this data is between 35%-43%. And Beijing is 689%！
This means that the children of Beijing, who also take the college entrance examination7 out of 10 are undergraduates, and Henan is 33 pcs.
In most cities, the admission rate of key high schools is much higher than that of ordinary high schools, and whether or not you can enter key high schools depends on whether you can enter key junior high schools or even key primary schools. The junior high school and primary schools are all exempt from the examination, and whether they can go to school depends on the mark or lottery.
The final focus fell on the fateful school district house. Even if it is not good, the child is not the material for studying, and the school district house is also a "hard currency" in the market, and it can make a profit when it is sold.
Under the coercion of scarce educational resources and financial attributes, the school district housingThat's allWalked on the pinnacle of carnival.
The fate of the school district room
The school district housing is now **, which makes many high-level people feel surprised and unacceptable, but many signs have already emerged.
In the short term,Second half of 2021since,The real estate market continues to declineThe same applies to school district housing. There are few people who want to buy, and many people who want to sell, which will inevitably lead to a stampede.
In the medium term, the logic of school district housing is changing. The regulation of school district housing began a few years ago. In 2021, the high-level meeting clearly stated that ——
Increase the supply of affordable rental housing and co-ownership housing, and prevent speculation on housing prices in the name of school district housing.
After that, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Nanjing and other places focused on the rectification of school district housing.
In Shanghai, starting from 2021, 65% of the total enrollment plan will be allocated to districts and schools through the "comprehensive evaluation and admission of quota allocation".
In Shenzhen, the official proposed the "pilot university district system in the whole district", and selected 5 schools in the first primary school and the first junior high school in Minzhi Street to be included in the enrollment schools of the university district, and sniped the first degree room.
In the past two years, more cities have followed suit. The teacher rotation system, the suspension of winter and summer vacation tutoring classes, the strict control of ** education, and even the pilot launch of the summer care service ...... for primary school studentsThese are all small steps in reform. When high-quality educational resources are no longer strongly related to the house, the school district will naturally cool down.
From a longer perspective, the value base of school district housing is also gradually shaking.
Since the national birth population reached its peak in 2016, the number of newborns has been falling, and in 2022, the national birth population will fall below 10 million, almost halved compared with a few years ago.
Another piece of data illustrates this trend. According to the official website of the Ministry of Education, there will be 28 kindergartens in the country in 2022920,000, a decrease of 5,610 from the previous year. In the same year, 50 kindergartens were closed in Linquan County, Anhui Province, China's "most populous county". In 2022, there were 5,162 fewer elementary schools than in the previous year.
With fewer students, the demand for housing in the school district naturally drops, and so does the value.
The real rise of the concept of school district housing came after the enactment of the Compulsory Education Law in 2006 and the emphasis on "proximity to school". Later, the "small promotion to junior high school" direct promotion system pushed the "school district room" to the altar.
Looking back on the past ten years, there have been too many magic births in the school district. Some people will not hesitate to spend tens of millions of dollars and bankrupt their families;Some people formed the Meng Mother Group and ran their own Olympiad class, and consciously became the "defender" of housing prices;There are also people who mobilize huge amounts of money to hoard housing in the school district, and then sell it to the receivers who need it for a period ......of time, making huge profits from it
But now, that's all in the past. The school district will eventually realize that sentence-
When the times abandon you, there will be no goodbye